M's winter / draft talk

dhdawg said:

Tequilla said:

Napoli is almost certainly staying in Cleveland if they make him a legit offer ... I love Napoli and would definitely endorse the move IF he happened to hit the market.

My point on Cruz is that I'd love to find some way to get a better backup option at 1B in case Vogelbach goes to absolute shit and can't hack it. IF Cruz can pick up 1B, it provides some protection there. Taking my thoughts of how you try to fool proof your roster, that'd be the way to cover up the uncertainty at 1B. Bringing back Dae Ho there doesn't do that because IF Vogelbach isn't ready for the bigs then you have a massive hole at 1B because Dae Ho can't hit any righty worth a shit or a lefty that has plus stuff.

I'm with you in that I'd love to see the Mariners move on from Guti but they won't because they are the Mariners. In fairness, as a platoon righty that gets maybe 150-200 ABs Guti is a worthwhile player. But he's got to be your 5th OF IMO because he's not a guy that you can throw in there 18 of 22 days and expect him to not break down. To me, Guti is worthwhile UNTIL O'Neill gets to the bigs. Once he gets there you likely want him playing everyday which eliminates the need for a platoon spot anyway. But even if you bring him up and put him in a platoon, then Guti is out of a spot then. So sign him for a year and then if O'Neill comes up in July you can throw Guti on the DL with old age disease and be done with it.

Desmond is an interesting name for a couple of reasons ... and definitely IF he came available and wasn't heading back to Texas someone that I could completely get behind going after because he checks every single box that is needed for this team and would be worth giving up a compensatory pick for. He can play both OF (LF) and provides SS protection against Marte not growing. I don't know if I would say that Desmond is a great leadoff hitter but I think you could slot him there with a very interesting lineup construction if you wanted to go in that direction (proposed lineup below). His career numbers are fairly consistent with the exception of a down 2015 season when Washington as a whole really tanked. The downside to me is that you're looking at a guy that is going to be in demand in what will be a thin free agent market. The proposed market value for him is in line with a 6 year $100M contract (http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/texas-rangers/ian-desmond-7542/market-value/) ... I'm not sure that I'd want to go that high on term. I think I'd probably start with an offer somewhere in the 5 year for $90M range with the potential for 1-2 option years that could be added on to the back end of the deal based on performance metrics ... my fear is that the ultimate contract will probably be more comparable to the Jayson Werth deal and get to a 6 year and $115-$120M range. But with the makeup of the Mariners roster and the lack of a possible leadoff hitter really anywhere in the Mariners system at the moment, I think I'd swallow the contract a bit because to maximize the current investment in the core of your team, you need to supplement it with talent around the roster to ensure that you do make a playoff run or two with the team.

The other thing about a signing of Desmond that makes sense to me given the change over of the ownership group is the signaling to the fan base that the present ownership group is invested in winning and in so doing should translate into higher attendance levels. The reality is that the Mariners had just under 2.27M in attendance this year which is 9th of 15 teams in the AL (only Baltimore, Minnesota, White Sox, Cleveland, Oakland, and Tampa) had lower attendance levels.

Projected Lineup with Desmond:

1) Martin - CF
2) Desmond - LF
3) Cano - 2B
4) Cruz - DH
5) Seager - 3B
6) Smith/Gutierrez - RF
7) Zunino - C
8) Vogelbach/Lee - 1B
9) Marte - SS

IF as the year goes on Vogelbach proves that he's capable of moving up in the order, then I'd move Desmond potentially up to 1st, Vogelbach up behind Seager and dropping Martin down to the 7th spot or thereabouts.

Dae Ho Lee is fucking worthless and a waste of a roster spot. HTH

I 100% agree with this ...

But I'd put far greater than 81% odds that BOTH Lee and Guti are on the roster next year.

he's better than marte and no one else is available. it's not really an infatuation

dhdawg said:

he's better than marte and no one else is available. it's not really an infatuation

Even if I concede that he's better than Marte (which Marte has a ceiling to grow to still ... Cozart is probably close to if not at his ceiling) ... is the difference between the two enough to entertain trading 1-2 players from an already thin minor league system?

Or perhaps put another way, IF we were to assume that those 1-2 minor league players were going to be moved at some point regardless, is their highest and best use to get us Cozart or to be retained for some kind of move at the deadline?

Tequilla said:

dhdawg said:

he's better than marte and no one else is available. it's not really an infatuation

Even if I concede that he's better than Marte (which Marte has a ceiling to grow to still ... Cozart is probably close to if not at his ceiling) ... is the difference between the two enough to entertain trading 1-2 players from an already thin minor league system?

Or perhaps put another way, IF we were to assume that those 1-2 minor league players were going to be moved at some point regardless, is their highest and best use to get us Cozart or to be retained for some kind of move at the deadline?

marte is a dreckfest. he's not going to improve.
Cozart is a mediocre hitter and a very good defender.
I'll take that over a horrid hitter and bad defender plus a middling prospect any day

A lot of wasted energy for a team that hasn't made the playoffs in 15 years.

#refusetowin