Mad Son's Ramblings: Year Three is Prove-It Time for Petersen

Hardcore_Husky

Mad Son's Ramblings: Year Three is Prove-It Time for Petersen

Mad Son puts a lot of time into his Ramblings. We should all thank him for his service.

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AEB

Pressing. The big plays happened not due to luck but execution, talent advantage, and taking advantage of what the D gives you. Improvement in all these areas will lead to success this year. In the first quarter Gaskin went for 39 Yds in 6 carries and Jake threw for 150.

The only conclusions I'm drawing on the O is we have more speed and game breaking ability, and Jake looks to have improved one part of his game year-over-year, a part where he was universally critiqued. Everything else is TBD.

I love the hype. Puts expectations on our morbid program and helps in recruiting.

FremontTroll

Coach effect does not equal game management.

You'd have to be regularly punting on third down to cost your team three wins in one season via game management.
Game management is wrapped up in there. It is a much larger term that encompasses nearly every aspect of the team, as I tried to acknowledge. I maybe wasn't as explicit in mentioning the offense there as I had intended to be. Basically those are the areas where we are under-performing and it is costing us games.

All coach effect does is compare recruiting rankings to results.

So, assuming the recruiting rankings are unbiased, coach effect attempts to measure every single aspect of coaching from identifying underrated talent to development to roster management to motivation to team-building to game management, etc.

Game management is the most visible aspect of coaching but also the most overrated. A lot of awful fourth down decision makers have won Super Bowls and crystal footballs.

BlowItUp

wtf'd for using coach effect.

TierbsHsotBoobs

Coach effect does not equal game management.

You'd have to be regularly punting on third down to cost your team three wins in one season via game management.
Game management is wrapped up in there. It is a much larger term that encompasses nearly every aspect of the team, as I tried to acknowledge. I maybe wasn't as explicit in mentioning the offense there as I had intended to be. Basically those are the areas where we are under-performing and it is costing us games.
All coach effect does is compare recruiting rankings to results.

So, assuming the recruiting rankings are unbiased, coach effect attempts to measure every single aspect of coaching from identifying underrated talent to development to roster management to motivation to team-building to game management, etc.

Game management is the most visible aspect of coaching but also the most overrated. A lot of awful fourth down decision makers have won Super Bowls and crystal footballs.

If you have superior talent, you can get away with bad game management.

Washington doesn't have that talent advantage now and likely never will.

Mad_Son

The only conclusions I'm drawing on the O is we have more speed and game breaking ability, and Jake looks to have improved one part of his game year-over-year, a part where he was universally critiqued. Everything else is TBD.

I already said John Ross is back and mentioned the deep balls

Tequilla

Shit article.

Shit poster.

Obligatory

Mad_Son

Coach effect does not equal game management.

You'd have to be regularly punting on third down to cost your team three wins in one season via game management.
Game management is wrapped up in there. It is a much larger term that encompasses nearly every aspect of the team, as I tried to acknowledge. I maybe wasn't as explicit in mentioning the offense there as I had intended to be. Basically those are the areas where we are under-performing and it is costing us games.
All coach effect does is compare recruiting rankings to results.

So, assuming the recruiting rankings are unbiased, coach effect attempts to measure every single aspect of coaching from identifying underrated talent to development to roster management to motivation to team-building to game management, etc.

Game management is the most visible aspect of coaching but also the most overrated. A lot of awful fourth down decision makers have won Super Bowls and crystal footballs.

Yes, so my logic is that if everything other than game mangement and the offense is good then those are what is costing us three games as per CFBMCE. Realistically if we are overachieving in say defense and off-season stuff then those two bad aspects are potentially costing us more than three wins. I acknowledged I did a poor job of showing game management and offense were linked concepts in the context of CFBMCE. I shouldn't have made offense a separate paragraph or I should have separated out game management into the offense paragraph.

Mad_Son

wtf'd for using coach effect.

Is this because you hate quantifying things and looking at more than the win-loss column? Do you hate trying to understand root cause and to figure out what the source of the failures are? Coach Effect is a perfectly valid angle to look at performance versus recruiting. There are caveats with that but most of us are capable of understanding them...

Tequilla

The problem with some of these new dangled metrics is that they assume conditions and variables are constant and fail to account for circumstance or situation.

For example, if a team scores the same amount as they give up, the expectation is that this is a .500 team. And perhaps when this data is populated it is normally distributed. But there are still plenty of examples where there are teams that are 1-2 deviations outside the mean.

The question that you have to ask at that point is what drives those instances where teams are outside the norm? Luck? Bad coaching? Injuries? Youth? Turnovers?

BlowItUp

wtf'd for using coach effect.
Is this because you hate quantifying things and looking at more than the win-loss column? Do you hate trying to understand root cause and to figure out what the source of the failures are? Coach Effect is a perfectly valid angle to look at performance versus recruiting. There are caveats with that but most of us are capable of understanding them...

any metric that has Mike Leach as a better coach than David Shaw, Dabo Sweeney, Jimbo Fisher, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer is probably stupid and needs to be re-worked.

Mad_Son

wtf'd for using coach effect.
Is this because you hate quantifying things and looking at more than the win-loss column? Do you hate trying to understand root cause and to figure out what the source of the failures are? Coach Effect is a perfectly valid angle to look at performance versus recruiting. There are caveats with that but most of us are capable of understanding them...
any metric that has Mike Leach as a better coach than David Shaw, Dabo Sweeney, Jimbo Fisher, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer is probably stupid and needs to be re-worked.

Mike Leach does very well in his system with lower tier talent and that isn't a fluke. That is exactly what coach effect measures. All of those coaches you named may have been more successful, but that may be just because they aren't nut jobs and can attract top recruits. It sounds to me like you're afraid the Cougs are going to win the Apple Cup this year.

Tequilla

wtf'd for using coach effect.
Is this because you hate quantifying things and looking at more than the win-loss column? Do you hate trying to understand root cause and to figure out what the source of the failures are? Coach Effect is a perfectly valid angle to look at performance versus recruiting. There are caveats with that but most of us are capable of understanding them...
any metric that has Mike Leach as a better coach than David Shaw, Dabo Sweeney, Jimbo Fisher, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer is probably stupid and needs to be re-worked.
Mike Leach does very well in his system with lower tier talent and that isn't a fluke. That is exactly what coach effect measures. All of those coaches you named may have been more successful, but that may be just because they aren't nut jobs and can attract top recruits. It sounds to me like you're afraid the Cougs are going to win the Apple Cup this year.

Wow, just wow

Mad_Son

The problem with some of these new dangled metrics is that they assume conditions and variables are constant and fail to account for circumstance or situation.

For example, if a team scores the same amount as they give up, the expectation is that this is a .500 team. And perhaps when this data is populated it is normally distributed. But there are still plenty of examples where there are teams that are 1-2 deviations outside the mean.

The question that you have to ask at that point is what drives those instances where teams are outside the norm? Luck? Bad coaching? Injuries? Youth? Turnovers?

That is not a problem with new metrics. That is a problem with all metrics. If you want to account for luck, injuries, youth, etc you have to come up with new fangled, fancy things - the sort of thing that Chest was derided for.

I noted there are caveats and you mentioned that you have to try to understand the outliers that result from some of the assumptions made so I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. Does the fact that this metric indicates Washington is underperforming under Chris Petersen surprise you? I don't think anyone looks at our recruiting classes and thinks "Yup, perennial .500 team there". I think that when you are consistently hovering around the top 25 in talent you should be hovering around the top 25 in rankings... which has been elusive for us to achieve come the end of the season so far...

Mad_Son

Ah downvotes, the last result of the idiot who is wrong and has run out of excuses.

BlowItUp

coaching effect is a stupid metric and you guys only use it cause it makes petersen look bad and ignore all the ones that make him look fine. bash petersen all you want for the '14 AZ game, the two minute (lol) drill against oregon, the 2nd half vs ASU, etc. i don't give a fuck. i'll just be over here scared of that coach that has a Apple cup record of 1-3 and been outscored by an average of 15 points a game.

GrundleStiltzkin

I don't mind metrics, but Coach Effect has to be the most tenuous. Using it is at least two, probably three steps of inference down the chain, based on Ecklunds view of a group of kids' hips in high school 2-4 years prior.

CokeGreaterThanPepsi

The thing with the Coach Effect is that it is more geared to finding coaches getting less with more. If you are the worst recruiter in the country and go 0-12, your coach effect is 0. If you are the best recruiter in the country and you go 12-0 your coach effect is also 0.

I do like CE, because it can help find those coaches that get less with more. But yeah.

Mad_Son

coaching effect is a stupid metric and you guys only use it cause it makes petersen look bad and ignore all the ones that make him look fine. bash petersen all you want for the '14 AZ game, the two minute (lol) drill against oregon, the 2nd half vs ASU, etc. i don't give a fuck. i'll just be over here scared of that coach that has a Apple cup record of 1-3 and been outscored by an average of 15 points a game.

I mention it because it is one of the few things that looks at the big picture. You just listed a bunch of issues but seemingly don't care. Petersen is by and large a good coach. He had done many very good things. That isn't the point. The point is he has issues that can hold us back from greatness. We have under achieved relative to our talent level and that is what this measures. I think the only two things wrong with the program are coaching - gameday management and the offensive playcalling (we'll see on ol performance). Everything else is great but as long as we're under performing then those great things aren't enough. The defense may have been a year ahead developmentally but I haven't seen anything that shows our offense is there yet. It is too early to see if management issues have been fixed.

This is not a fire Petersen article. It is a we aren't there yet article. It is a don't get lulled into diminished expectations because we've been losers for so long article.

Mad_Son

The thing with the Coach Effect is that it is more geared to finding coaches getting less with more. If you are the worst recruiter in the country and go 0-12, your coach effect is 0. If you are the best recruiter in the country and you go 12-0 your coach effect is also 0.

I do like CE, because it can help find those coaches that get less with more. But yeah.

Right, we however are in a valid range to test positive and negative effects.

Mad_Son

I don't mind metrics, but Coach Effect has to be the most tenuous. Using it is at least two, probably three steps of inference down the chain, based on Ecklunds view of a group of kids' hips in high school 2-4 years prior.

It works on a population level. Obviously since classes are bigger and smaller. Some kids are sleepers and other are busts. Fundamentally I don't think recruiting rankings are invalid for gauging gross talent levels.