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Warriors vs #ThunderDown
Tequilla
Member Posts: 19,815
Seems like everywhere I turn tonight I'm hearing about how the Bastard Sonics have turned a corner and will beat the Warriors (save for Stephen A Smith) ... but I think this is a fairly bad matchup for OKC for the following reasons:
1) Don't particularly matchup well defensively in the backcourt against Curry and Thompson
If there's a weakness that I see on OKC, it's that defensively they are lacking at the guard position in that they don't particularly have a great alternative option at PG that they can put on the opposition to get Westbrook some easy minutes ... in this series, this is magnified because even if you move Westbrook off of Curry, you're moving him onto Thompson (not that that's any easier). In the 3 regular season games, Curry averaged 35 points in 38 minutes of action per game while Thompson averaged close to 24 a game in 36 minutes per game ... he also was significantly more efficient than the regular season shooting over 50 points better. How OKC defends Curry/Thompson will likely decide their fate in the series.
2) OKC bigs a rebounding asset or defensive liability
This follows the prior in how Curry and Thompson are able to get great looks consistently against OKC. OKC wants to play 2 bigs out of Ibaka, Adams, and Kanter. One of them will have to guard Draymond Green. One of the staples of the Warriors offense is the high screen by Green that forces the defense to either a switch of a big directly onto Curry or a jump double that creates a 4 on 3 situation once the pass goes to Green because with Curry's handles it's almost impossible for the on ball defender to stay with Curry through the screen in a position where his defensive position does not become compromised and it's not like he can go under the screen. This has been one of the biggest issues I've seen in the games between the two teams this season is that OKC tends to believe in their bigs being able to at least contest a jumper by Curry and know that the 4 on 3 situation for Green is just as devastating. The problem though is that at that point either the bigs for OKC somehow comes up with a stop or more likely Curry is able to manipulate whatever shot he wants (see the game in OKC when he played Adams like a yo yo in a few key spots). If your defensive strategy in the series is to hope that the MVP is missing jumpers, that's not a recipe for success. And when you look at the options that OKC has on the bench at the guard position, it's not like they can make the decision to go small and expect that that's going to work out well in the long run by playing essentially the Warriors game. Instead, OKC has to hope that its bigs are able to play enough of a contesting defense on the perimeter to not be a liability while being able to punish the Warriors on the boards (easier said than done with the way that the Warriors collectively rebound).
3) Ability for the Warriors to shuffle bodies onto Durant
The biggest consistent mismatch for OKC in the series is Durant as the Warriors can shuffle enough bodies on him between Barnes, Iguodala, Livingston, and even Green if necessary. But Durant's a monster against the Warriors because they just quite frankly lack the height to be able to bother him. In the 3 games this year, Durant averaged over 36 points a game. If OKC is to win the series, they likely will need Durant to be averaging upwards of 40 a game in the OKC victories.
4) Russell Westbrook
Where I really think the impact of Curry/Westbrook really hurts OKC in this matchup is Westbrook on the offensive end. Whereas the Warriors can hide Curry on Roberson, Waiters, or whoever, Westbrook has to raise to the challenge on the defensive end first and the offense becomes secondary ... which doesn't work for OKC when it comes to winning as they rely so much on him and Durant to be difference makers. Westbrook averaged 25 per game this year against the Warriors, but did so on 35% shooting. The bottom line is that the lack of depth that OKC has in the perimeter forces Westbrook to expand so much energy that ultimately by the time you reach the 4th quarter he's on fumes when they need him the most. In my mind, this ultimately is what separates the teams is that Westbrook doesn't have a 2nd guard that can share the load with him the way that the Warriors are able to share the offensive/defensive duties between Curry and Thompson.
I'd be surprised if the Warriors needed more than 6 games to win this series.
1) Don't particularly matchup well defensively in the backcourt against Curry and Thompson
If there's a weakness that I see on OKC, it's that defensively they are lacking at the guard position in that they don't particularly have a great alternative option at PG that they can put on the opposition to get Westbrook some easy minutes ... in this series, this is magnified because even if you move Westbrook off of Curry, you're moving him onto Thompson (not that that's any easier). In the 3 regular season games, Curry averaged 35 points in 38 minutes of action per game while Thompson averaged close to 24 a game in 36 minutes per game ... he also was significantly more efficient than the regular season shooting over 50 points better. How OKC defends Curry/Thompson will likely decide their fate in the series.
2) OKC bigs a rebounding asset or defensive liability
This follows the prior in how Curry and Thompson are able to get great looks consistently against OKC. OKC wants to play 2 bigs out of Ibaka, Adams, and Kanter. One of them will have to guard Draymond Green. One of the staples of the Warriors offense is the high screen by Green that forces the defense to either a switch of a big directly onto Curry or a jump double that creates a 4 on 3 situation once the pass goes to Green because with Curry's handles it's almost impossible for the on ball defender to stay with Curry through the screen in a position where his defensive position does not become compromised and it's not like he can go under the screen. This has been one of the biggest issues I've seen in the games between the two teams this season is that OKC tends to believe in their bigs being able to at least contest a jumper by Curry and know that the 4 on 3 situation for Green is just as devastating. The problem though is that at that point either the bigs for OKC somehow comes up with a stop or more likely Curry is able to manipulate whatever shot he wants (see the game in OKC when he played Adams like a yo yo in a few key spots). If your defensive strategy in the series is to hope that the MVP is missing jumpers, that's not a recipe for success. And when you look at the options that OKC has on the bench at the guard position, it's not like they can make the decision to go small and expect that that's going to work out well in the long run by playing essentially the Warriors game. Instead, OKC has to hope that its bigs are able to play enough of a contesting defense on the perimeter to not be a liability while being able to punish the Warriors on the boards (easier said than done with the way that the Warriors collectively rebound).
3) Ability for the Warriors to shuffle bodies onto Durant
The biggest consistent mismatch for OKC in the series is Durant as the Warriors can shuffle enough bodies on him between Barnes, Iguodala, Livingston, and even Green if necessary. But Durant's a monster against the Warriors because they just quite frankly lack the height to be able to bother him. In the 3 games this year, Durant averaged over 36 points a game. If OKC is to win the series, they likely will need Durant to be averaging upwards of 40 a game in the OKC victories.
4) Russell Westbrook
Where I really think the impact of Curry/Westbrook really hurts OKC in this matchup is Westbrook on the offensive end. Whereas the Warriors can hide Curry on Roberson, Waiters, or whoever, Westbrook has to raise to the challenge on the defensive end first and the offense becomes secondary ... which doesn't work for OKC when it comes to winning as they rely so much on him and Durant to be difference makers. Westbrook averaged 25 per game this year against the Warriors, but did so on 35% shooting. The bottom line is that the lack of depth that OKC has in the perimeter forces Westbrook to expand so much energy that ultimately by the time you reach the 4th quarter he's on fumes when they need him the most. In my mind, this ultimately is what separates the teams is that Westbrook doesn't have a 2nd guard that can share the load with him the way that the Warriors are able to share the offensive/defensive duties between Curry and Thompson.
I'd be surprised if the Warriors needed more than 6 games to win this series.
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Series summary- Thunder win if Durant and Westbrook are the best two players on the floor.
No question that if Westbrook puts a monster series up then that brings the series far closer to even. But at some point, the heavy minutes he will be playing will catch up with him.
If I were a Thunder fan I'd be more concerned that Big Foot was going to attack Kevin Durant than I would be about Westbroook getting tired.
Dude, you know nobody reads this shit, right?
Steven Adams, aka Bill the Butcher, will out Draymond Draymond and win rather easily, by say...7?
Tough to bet against GS, but it could be a good series. I never thought the Thunder would beat the Spurs either, especially after getting blown out in game 1.
Curry and Westbrook are the most entertaining players in the game. An they have never gone head to head in the playoffs.
I'd still favor the Warriors but game 1 was a reminder that Durant and Westbrook have been through wars and can beat anyone, anywhere, anytime.
And I'm not sure Westbrook/Durant is more talented than Lebron/Irving.