Intentionally Fouling

I was pretty pissed when I typed it ...

I'm still on record as saying that I'm not a huge fan of fouling in those situations ... particularly not with that much time left.

People say that the math is unquestionably tilted in the direction of fouling ... I'd love to see that information. Lots of variables in play ... small changes to some of them can dramatically alter the conclusion.

I disagree on a couple of points:

1) It's not about whether you miss both free throws or not ... all you need is to miss 1 because the likelihood is that the shot for the opposition at that point is a 3 to beat you ... not a 2 to tie you. If you miss both it's still likely to be a 3.

2) There's a difference between letting someone shoot a contested 3 versus an uncontested 3. In all 3's this year, Oregon St is making them at a 36% clip. Even assuming the base case scenario of them making a shot in that situation at their season average means you likely win the game on the spot by securing a rebound 64% of the time. I'd contend that the true shooting percentage of Oregon State in that situation is probably closer to 30% given that the shot is surely going to be contested and their options are limited.

My math looks like this:

Missed Shot + Rebound = 70% likely
Made Shot = 30% likely
Odds of UW scoring in regulation to win when tied = 10-20% likely
Odds of UW winning in overtime = 40% likely given game situation (assuming for the sake of argument that they are less likely to win given last second shot + playing on road)

Odds of winning game = 70% + (.30*.15) + (.30*.40) = 86.5% of the time

If you increase to 20% likely and overtime being a coin flip, you're going to win over 90% of the time.

And the part that really strikes it home for me is that your downside risk to losing in regulation by not fouling is close to 0.

allpurpleallgold said:

Tequilla said:

I was pretty pissed when I typed it ...

I'm still on record as saying that I'm not a huge fan of fouling in those situations ... particularly not with that much time left.

People say that the math is unquestionably tilted in the direction of fouling ... I'd love to see that information. Lots of variables in play ... small changes to some of them can dramatically alter the conclusion.

So you haven't looked at all the information and yet you've made up your mind.

I've run my own numbers based on my assumptions of the situations and have determined that I don't see the upside benefit being enough to compensate me for the downside risk.

What I'm interested in seeing is the assumptions of others, reviewing their methodology and assumptions, and seeing what they are and are not considering that I am.