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Rubio/Cruz think tank after tonight?

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  • DugtheDoog
    DugtheDoog Member Posts: 3,180
    Tequilla said:

    The whole immigration thing I find fascinating and actually explains a lot to me as to why Trump is winning so easily ...

    The whole illegal immigration thing comes down to what the law is, border security, national security, and enforcing the law. Forgetting immigration, there are countless people that are sick and tired of seeing the Obama/Clinton side of things get away with seemingly do whatever they want whether it is legal or not. Then you start adding all the other issues around the country and there's a definite backlash out there where people are basically saying enough is enough let's start enforcing our laws and holding people accountable to the rules. Trump's hitting the mark with these people big time.

    Add to it that we are coming off of 8 years where Obama speaks in this great flowing language that has no substance behind its rhetoric, yet all we hear from both Obama and Hillary in her campaign is the need to continue on the current path because they just haven't had enough time to recover from Dubya's administration. People are fed up with the bullshit ... there are more smart people out there than what they are given credited for. Looking at the Republican candidates, Cruz can't shut up about policy (that nobody gives a shit about) and you hear Rubio talk and he just comes across as the Republican Obama.

    In the end, Trump has a lot working in his favor.

    The people that think that Trump doesn't have staying power are clearly proven wrong. The people that are voting for him are loyally in his corner. His base is rock solid. There are a lot of people that can't imagine voting for Trump ... but that's because they have options at this point. And that brings to me what I think will be the most fascinating aspect come the Fall:

    Will Republicans be more motivated by defeating Hillary at the expense of having to hold their nose voting for Trump OR will the Democrats that aren't behind Hillary (and there are a number of them as well given Bernie's performance) be more motivated by beating Trump and hold their nose to vote for Hillary?

    At this point, Trump's got to fall on his face IMO to not only fail to win the Republican nomination, but to fail to win the whole thing.

    Agree. And this whole establishment/media rhetoric that he doesn't have enough "experience". What the fuck is experience to be president of a country? I guess governor would be closest but is Cruz sitting around thinking up laws for a year and a half qualify him to be president? Did Obubba being a community organizer? Trust me, I'm not solidly in Trump's corner because I agree with him on the most issues. But common sense tells me that being president is like being CEO on a grander scale. The pundits like to make a big deal out of "well is Sarah Palin going to know enough about Prince Alibabashahinadad of Jordan'? Like it really fucking matters. Does the CEO of GLaxoSmithKlein know shit about chemistry? No, but he knows and employs a lot of people that do.

    The biggest indicator for readiness to be president is do you get shit done and can you get people to like you. No president knows jackshit about running a military operation. That's why it matters who you know and who you trust and listen to your fucking advisers. That's what they're there for.

    And I totally agree re: the Hispanic vote. The media wants to paint it as a black/white issue (no pun intended), when it's really not. If I were Hispanic and paid my dues, waited in line, paid taxes, took a test, learned the language, etc., I would personally be insulted by people cutting to the front of the line and basically getting a free pass because President ________ decides not to enforce the laws. The media wants to frame every goddamn thing about race. I don't even think about race until the media brings it up all the damn time. So maybe this whole "Hispanic vote", by and large, consider themselves simply part of the "American vote" and don't look at it through racially-tinted glasses. Just like I fucking don't. And pretty much everyone else I know.

    And that's another thing. People are sick and tired of being told what they can and can't say, what's racist, what's not. I think many people appreciate Trump for not being a fucking pussy like Romney or McCain and he says what's on his mind. To beat a Clinton or Obubba, you're not going to win playing "aww shucks" Mr. Mormon doofus. You have to give it to Hillary and let her get schlonged.
  • HeretoBeatmyChest
    HeretoBeatmyChest Member Posts: 4,295
    Actually the best GOP strategy might be to have a bigger field to prevent Trump from winning a majority and making it go to a brokered convention.
  • Tequilla
    Tequilla Member Posts: 20,255

    Actually the best GOP strategy might be to have a bigger field to prevent Trump from winning a majority and making it go to a brokered convention.

    That's only going to matter if in enough states somebody can beat Trump.

    The problem is that Trump's got the most loyal base behind him and is going to be practically guaranteed of getting at minimum 20% of the vote in every state.

    So unless someone gets on a roll and starts beating him after March 15th (and that's probably not happening in any state in the Northeast) where they can get full delegates, that's not even realistic.

    People need to start coming to terms that Trump's going to be the nominee as long as he doesn't do something incredibly stupid ... and I'm not even sure that matters at that point because everybody is expecting it and when he stays on the straight and narrow people get positively surprised.
  • DugtheDoog
    DugtheDoog Member Posts: 3,180
    Tequilla said:

    Actually the best GOP strategy might be to have a bigger field to prevent Trump from winning a majority and making it go to a brokered convention.

    That's only going to matter if in enough states somebody can beat Trump.

    The problem is that Trump's got the most loyal base behind him and is going to be practically guaranteed of getting at minimum 20% of the vote in every state.

    So unless someone gets on a roll and starts beating him after March 15th (and that's probably not happening in any state in the Northeast) where they can get full delegates, that's not even realistic.

    People need to start coming to terms that Trump's going to be the nominee as long as he doesn't do something incredibly stupid ... and I'm not even sure that matters at that point because everybody is expecting it and when he stays on the straight and narrow people get positively surprised.
    Speaking of that, I think Trump could really scare the piss out of the libtards, and not just because of the obvious. But he could potentially shake up the map...big time. It's usually a given...Cali, NY, NJ, MA, CT, MD, WA, OR go blue. I was tempted to also say PA but it's not considered a 'lock'. And TX, OK, GA, SC, AL, TN, etc. go red. So the problem is the states that automatically go red, besides TX, GA and TN, don't really add up to much. So they end up essentially having to win FL and OH (or PA) to have a shot.

    But Trump IS New York. Sure they're RINOs but the state has been known to elect R guberners. So if he could somehow put NY and to a lesser extent NJ back into play, that would be a MAJOR game-changer. Say he did win NY...and was able to pull off 2/3 from FL, OH, PA. Game over.

    And even if he didn't win NY, even polling w/in a few points would have Hilary scared shitless and thus having to spend a lot more time there than normal while Trump could theoretically work on swing states like FL, MN, OH, etc. It would be like if all of a sudden TX and GA were in play and the GOP candidate had to devote resources to secure because without those states, they'd be fucked.

    Basically...either way it will be interesting. And if you can't handle the ups and downs of politics, you might want to take a long walk to gain some perspective.
  • NEsnake12
    NEsnake12 Member Posts: 3,795
    The GOP isn't going to win New York. Not even close. The closest New York ever came to going red this century was 2004, when Kerry still racked up a 58-40 win. The closest margin that Trump could get it to would probably be around 10 points.
  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 115,927 Founders Club
    Trump has a 35% ceiling

    Rubio and Cruz combined have a higher percentage

    Oops

    Or not

    President Trump. Get used to it
  • doogsinparadise
    doogsinparadise Member Posts: 9,320
    I still don't buy that Hispanics will vote for Trump, the sample size in Nv was minuscule.
  • greenblood
    greenblood Member Posts: 14,572
    edited February 2016

    I still don't buy that Hispanics will vote for Trump, the sample size in Nv was minuscule.

    I agree it's small, but the Hispanic vote is much more complicated than that. Hispanic males would flock to Trump in a head to head with Hillary.