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Recruiting Stats & Numbers Update
HeretoBeatmyChest
Member Posts: 4,295
Scout has updated their rankings and UW's 2016 class now is 17th in average stars with an average of 3.46. Love was bumped up to a 4 star.
Because Scout has inflated their rankings over time (more 4 stars now and fewer 1 and 2 stars) the national rank is more instructive than the average star. Over the past 3 years #20 in average stars has gone from 3.26 to 3.29 to 3.38 last year. When Oregon and Stanford started winning their recruiting went to and maintained levels from 3.35 to 3.50. We may have to bump that up a tiny bit for our own expectations over the next few classes.
With 13 recruits left I bet we take another 4 or 5. Here are the top guys that we have a realistic shot to get.
CB- 4* David Long- A few non-UW people crystal balled him to UW. (Larz and Ruth crystal ball everyone to UW). Committed to Stanford but he's not admitted there? Thinking is he could commit to UW on his visit
WR- 4* Javon Mckinley- Down to ND, Oregon and UW. Lets see if UW can close. UW needs a blue chip WR. Getting him would be a sign that recruiting has taken another step as we have not got a blue chip WR under Pete. My guess is its UW or ND.
DE/Buck- 5* Jonathan Kongbo JC DE/Buck- Committed to Tennessee. They probably promised him $$$. From BC so we are sort of the home play. Had a good unofficial visit to UW and is visiting again. Is also visiting Alabama.
CB- 4* Byron Murphy-Thought was he'd commit to home school ASU. Did not. Down to Texas A&M and UW most likely.
This image shows that for recruiting to take that big step we need to finish in the top 20 or around #20 for 4 straight years. If we get two more 4* guys then we probably will. But that is because we will take 17/18 guys. The average and median of class size has been 23. We'd probably finish around 3.35 with that class size. Other than in 2013 (#23) our 4-year average has not come close to 20. My conclusion is we need to average 3.35-3.40 over the next few classes to be around #20.
Because Scout has inflated their rankings over time (more 4 stars now and fewer 1 and 2 stars) the national rank is more instructive than the average star. Over the past 3 years #20 in average stars has gone from 3.26 to 3.29 to 3.38 last year. When Oregon and Stanford started winning their recruiting went to and maintained levels from 3.35 to 3.50. We may have to bump that up a tiny bit for our own expectations over the next few classes.
With 13 recruits left I bet we take another 4 or 5. Here are the top guys that we have a realistic shot to get.
CB- 4* David Long- A few non-UW people crystal balled him to UW. (Larz and Ruth crystal ball everyone to UW). Committed to Stanford but he's not admitted there? Thinking is he could commit to UW on his visit
WR- 4* Javon Mckinley- Down to ND, Oregon and UW. Lets see if UW can close. UW needs a blue chip WR. Getting him would be a sign that recruiting has taken another step as we have not got a blue chip WR under Pete. My guess is its UW or ND.
DE/Buck- 5* Jonathan Kongbo JC DE/Buck- Committed to Tennessee. They probably promised him $$$. From BC so we are sort of the home play. Had a good unofficial visit to UW and is visiting again. Is also visiting Alabama.
CB- 4* Byron Murphy-Thought was he'd commit to home school ASU. Did not. Down to Texas A&M and UW most likely.
This image shows that for recruiting to take that big step we need to finish in the top 20 or around #20 for 4 straight years. If we get two more 4* guys then we probably will. But that is because we will take 17/18 guys. The average and median of class size has been 23. We'd probably finish around 3.35 with that class size. Other than in 2013 (#23) our 4-year average has not come close to 20. My conclusion is we need to average 3.35-3.40 over the next few classes to be around #20.
Comments
If my first statement is true, someone tell Pete this isn't the WAC anymore.
The class has a good chance by average stars to finish in the top 20 which would be the highest ranking in the internet recruiting era. If it were a full class (5 or 6 more guys) then at worst it would finish extremely close to the highest ranked classes.
Will Oregon even take another WR verbal after McDoom and the kid who flipped from OSU both verballed this weekend?
Likely down to UW and Michigan for Crawfish at this point.
I want McKinley, I want him bad. Hardy Har Har.
You never....ever.....ever go to a school for the coaches. Not ever.
I stalked over to mgoblog for another perspective and they think it's a UO/UM battle for Crawford and Stanford/UM for Long.