The Saudis will be out of money in 5 years according to the IMF

2001400ex said:

Mad_Son said:

Right now the Saudis are driving some of the US onshore companies out of business. Their credit lines are drying up and we're starting to see US production fall. I expect that in mid-summer 2016 Saudi Arabia will start to curtail production. While they do want to protect some market share they are hurting for cash and know they can cut production 20% to increase commodity price by 50+%. Most of OPEC desperately wants oil prices back and will happily work with the Saudis to prop prices back up. We won't see prices back over $100 soon because onshore US production can come back online pretty readily and will if the margin is there. I think we'll see some oscillation around $70 oil for some time to come starting late next year.

Unfortunately, supply and demand has had less of an impact on the price than the value of the US dollar. And the Saudi's are happy with oil closer to $60. That's the area of the break even point for oil in the Bakken oil field, where most of the US production has increased the last 10 years. So anything over that, the production will increase from the US and less oil will come from the Saudi's.

I don't think the Saudis would like $60 nearly as much as $70. The Bakken formation isn't nearly as hot as, say, the Permian basin. Additionally I am not sure where your $60 number comes from for the Bakken.

Here is a Bloomberg estimate of different break-even prices from about a year ago when that estimate was all the rage.



As you can see $70 would be a closer number, if you think Bakken is the real driver.

Onshore companies are getting more efficient so that chart is assuredly outdated on some level but investors aren't going to be lining up to back a bunch of marginal companies.