Why Steve Kerr's Small Ball Was the Check Mate Move of the Finals

For you fucko's that don't understand basketball, listen up:

The NBA Finals this year is all about driving pace. Cleveland has the best player. The Warriors have the better depth and talent across the roster. When you are the least talented team (and in this case, decidedly so), the Cavs rightfully tried to control tempo, shorten the game, and limit possessions. Through 3 games, this worked.

During Game 3, Golden State discovered through playing David Lee that the key to unlocking Cleveland's defense and creating better tempo for their offense was having 5 guys on the court that could be threats to not only score the basketball, but also move the ball to an open shooter.

Cleveland's injuries have turned it's roster into very much a what you see is what you get squad. It has 2 bigs, the best player in the world, and a bunch of mediocre role players on the perimeter. There's not that much that they can change in terms of what they are doing.

The Warriors "gambled" that going small would fix the tempo issues that they had and given last night's results, other than a few small bursts by the Cavs (7-0 run to open the game and the 3rd quarter), the Cavs looked outclassed and without answers. Why was that? The answers lie as much in what they are able to do offensively as what they were able to do defensively.

1) When Cleveland has both Thompson and Mozgov on the court against the Warriors small ball lineup, they have to guard wing players that are adept at not only shooting jumpers as they are getting to the basket. The lack of desire, particularly by Mozgov, to come away from the hoop leads to warm up jumpers. Last night, you saw on a couple of instances GS players step into mid-range shots knowing that there was no threat from the defense. For players struggling from the floor, knowing that you're going to get uncontested looks helps your confidence. The other side of this equation is ...

2) Should Thompson and Mozgov be more aggressive on the perimeter playing defense or Cleveland go small to match, it opens up lanes and angles for Curry/Thompson to get to the basket. When combined with the above, knowing that Cleveland isn't going to either help off of Curry/Thompson or compromise it's defense to the point where Curry/Thompson are able to take advantage of inferior players 1 on 1, the Warriors have created a situation where they can not only guarantee that they are going to get great looks almost every possession, but also simplify the game in a way that limits their turnovers.

3) Defensively, outside of Curry, the starting lineup for the Warriors last night consisted of various wing players that range from 6'6" to 6'8". This allows them to be far more fluid in their rotations and liberal switching, particularly in the screen/roll game with LBJ. While it opens them up to being potentially hurt on the boards, the benefits are worth it because ...

4) Given the obvious size problems, it forces Cleveland into trying to decide whether or not their best option to score is LBJ going 1 on 1 all the time or trying to take advantage of guys like Mozgov having 6 inches on their defender around the basket. While Mozgov had a huge game last night, his lack of ability to move the ball made it far easier for the Warriors to play a far more active defense and not have to worry about the perimeter players getting on a roll and making a ton of 3's (which is the recipe for any LBJ team when they are at their best).

5) The most subtle change made during the game that was a direct result of the Warriors playing smaller was what they did to LBJ as he wasted away the shot clock. Knowing that LBJ does not want to play with a quick tempo, the Warriors are content to let him dribble for 16 to 18 seconds of the shot clock before either coming with a double, faking the double, or just in general collapsing and limiting his lanes to score. By coming late, it limits not only the amount of time that the Warriors are in a scramble situation defensively trying to get out to shooters, but it is also becomes much more predictable where the rotations need to go. Normally when LBJ penetrates or posts up, he's able to create open shots for his perimeter players. Last night, almost every shot out of those situations was contested. Essentially, what the Warriors are doing is using the Cavs desire to slow the pace against them since their offense has become extremely predictable. The way for the Cavs to attack what the Warriors are doing defensively at this point is to speed up their attack and hit the Warriors EARLIER in the shot clock. The problem with this though is that not only does it expose the Cavs lack of depth by playing a more up and down game, but the pace of going up and down is EXACTLY what a team that is built on offensive efficiency thrives upon. This is essentially the check mate move for the Cavs.

The rest of this series is simple. The Cavs will have better energy on Sunday. LBJ I expect will put up another sizable game. The Warriors will need to hit open shots that they are given (notably Iguodala, Barnes, and Green). If those Warriors in particular are shooting at a high percentage, the Cavs have ZERO answer. They can't go smaller and match. They can't go any bigger. They can't go faster because it exposes their depth. They can't go slower because doing so telegraphs to the Warriors the offense.

At the highest level of professional sports, you want to be in the position where you are playing a winner's game instead of a loser's game. This series is at a point now where the Warriors control who wins or loses. The Cavs only control their effort level and putting themselves in a position to win should the Warriors give them the opportunity to do so.

TL, DR version: TSIO ... Warriors in 6.