Lucky Lakers

I like Okafor more. Okafor is arguably the most polished low post player out of college since Tim Duncan. If he were to play in the NBA tomorrow, he'd already be a top 6 or 7 offensive center. The problem with Okafor is he can't shoot FT's worth a lick and can't defend. He'll never be a shot blocker, but I do think he can improve on his positional defense.

Either way the Lakers are sitting good. They can't screw this up. It's like when Seattle had the #2 pick and got Durant. There are two really good players in this draft, it is up to the TWolves to screw it up, Lakers just take whoever the TWolves don't take. Just like how Seattle was going to take whoever Portland didn't take between Oden and KD.

Upshaw to the Lakers at 27,
Front line of Upshaw, Okafor and Randle,

FreeChavez said:

NeGgaPlEaSe said:

Upshaw to the Lakers at 27,
Front line of Upshaw, Okafor and Randle,

I'll channel my inner doog and say that upshaw could be a very good to elite nba center. He obviously already has the defensive side, and was starting to mold his offensive game before he shot himself in the foot and was removed. It will hurt him in the first contract, but providing he's in shape for team workouts I wouldn't be shocked to see him go in the first round. Hell, the cavs could even take him. Pair him with bron and you'll really see things rolling.

Voted down for taking so long to realize this. I completely agree with your inner doog Chavey. He has elite size and defensive instincts. Rim protection is very coveted in the NBA, and Upshaw offers that. Any offense is a bonus, and word from his workouts is that he has shown offensive skill that wasn't seen in college.

I'll be very surprised if Upshaw doesn't go first round. The contracts are only guaranteed for two years and there are only 5-10 (at most) true impact players in every draft. Upshaw is one of those guys.

RoadDawg55 said:

FreeChavez said:

NeGgaPlEaSe said:

Upshaw to the Lakers at 27,
Front line of Upshaw, Okafor and Randle,

I'll channel my inner doog and say that upshaw could be a very good to elite nba center. He obviously already has the defensive side, and was starting to mold his offensive game before he shot himself in the foot and was removed. It will hurt him in the first contract, but providing he's in shape for team workouts I wouldn't be shocked to see him go in the first round. Hell, the cavs could even take him. Pair him with bron and you'll really see things rolling.

Voted down for taking so long to realize this. He has elite size and defensive instincts. Any offense is a bonus, and word from his workouts is that he has shown offensive skill that wasn't seen in college.

I'll be very surprised if Upshaw doesn't go first round. The contracts are only guaranteed for two years and there are only 5-10 (at most) true impact players in every draft. Upshaw is one of those guys.

That's a fair shot across the bow

Lakers still need to target Upshaw. He will go in the first round, Boston of all teams loves Upshaw as well. Seems like some team will take a chance on him, money will buy a sports Doctor, and rehab specialist.

RoadDawg55 said:

Indiana at #11 would be a good spot for Upshaw too. He either sits behind Hibbert for a year or the Pacers jettison Hibbert and let Upshaw and a cheaper veteran take over.

@Tequilla - This Bleacher Report article lays out why Towns is better. Flag for Bleacher Report if you would like, but it has some good stats that show why Towns' is the smarter pick. Towns' defensive rating led the country. He's a two way player, who can shoot FT's. The only thing Okafor does better is score. Towns' is a better rebounder, shot blocker, and he's a better athlete with a higher ceiling.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2474933-la-lakers-should-take-karl-anthony-towns-over-jahlil-okafor-in-2015-nba-draft

I think Upshaw's a great flyer for a team to take at the bottom of the first round, but anyone taking him at 11 is batshit crazy. Yeah he could be a top 10 player in this draft. He could also be out of the league in six months.

dnc said:

RoadDawg55 said:

Indiana at #11 would be a good spot for Upshaw too. He either sits behind Hibbert for a year or the Pacers jettison Hibbert and let Upshaw and a cheaper veteran take over.

@Tequilla - This Bleacher Report article lays out why Towns is better. Flag for Bleacher Report if you would like, but it has some good stats that show why Towns' is the smarter pick. Towns' defensive rating led the country. He's a two way player, who can shoot FT's. The only thing Okafor does better is score. Towns' is a better rebounder, shot blocker, and he's a better athlete with a higher ceiling.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2474933-la-lakers-should-take-karl-anthony-towns-over-jahlil-okafor-in-2015-nba-draft

I think Upshaw's a great flyer for a team to take at the bottom of the first round, but anyone taking him at 11 is batshit crazy. Yeah he could be a top 10 player in this draft. He could also be out of the league in six months.

It's not the NFL draft where you might not want to take a chance. It's way different. If you have a chance at a true impact guy, you take a chance. The first round contracts are only guaranteed for two years, so it's really not even that big of risk. Chances are, an impact guy isn't getting picked #11.

The past ten guys who went #11: Doug McDermott (probable bust, role player at best), Michael Carter-Williams (good pick), Myers Leonard (Some skill, but soft), Klay Thompson (All Star), Cole Aldrich (Bust), Terrence Williams (Bust), Jerryd Bayless (Journeyman), Acie Law (Bust), JJ Redick (good pick), Fran Vasquez (who?). If we go further back we get Andris Biedrins, Michael Pietrus, Jared Jeffries, Kedrick Brown, Jerome Moiso, and Trajan Langdon. Biedrins did well enough to get a large 2nd contract before washing out. Pietrus and Jeffries were role players at best.

4 out of the 16 guys listed are/were good NBA players. I'm being generous and considering Biedrins a good player. 25%. Only one is an All Star. I bet it's likely you could do the same thing with most picks outside the top 5.

Early projections don't think that Upshaw won't go lottery, and I don't necessarily believe he will be picked #11, but if a team thinks he can be a starting center and defensive anchor, history shows it would be FS not to pick him, regardless of his baggage.

RoadDawg55 said:

dnc said:

RoadDawg55 said:

Indiana at #11 would be a good spot for Upshaw too. He either sits behind Hibbert for a year or the Pacers jettison Hibbert and let Upshaw and a cheaper veteran take over.

@Tequilla - This Bleacher Report article lays out why Towns is better. Flag for Bleacher Report if you would like, but it has some good stats that show why Towns' is the smarter pick. Towns' defensive rating led the country. He's a two way player, who can shoot FT's. The only thing Okafor does better is score. Towns' is a better rebounder, shot blocker, and he's a better athlete with a higher ceiling.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2474933-la-lakers-should-take-karl-anthony-towns-over-jahlil-okafor-in-2015-nba-draft

I think Upshaw's a great flyer for a team to take at the bottom of the first round, but anyone taking him at 11 is batshit crazy. Yeah he could be a top 10 player in this draft. He could also be out of the league in six months.

It's not the NFL draft where you might not want to take a chance. It's way different. If you have a chance at a true impact guy, you take a chance. The first round contracts are only guaranteed for two years, so it's really not even that big of risk. Chances are, an impact guy isn't getting picked #11.

The past ten guys who went #11: Doug McDermott (probable bust, role player at best), Michael Carter-Williams (good pick), Myers Leonard (Some skill, but soft), Klay Thompson (All Star), Cole Aldrich (Bust), Terrence Williams (Bust), Jerryd Bayless (Journeyman), Acie Law (Bust), JJ Redick (good pick), Fran Vasquez (who?). If we go further back we get Andris Biedrins, Michael Pietrus, Jared Jeffries, Kedrick Brown, Jerome Moiso, and Trajan Langdon. Biedrins did well enough to get a large 2nd contract before washing out. Pietrus and Jeffries were role players at best.

4 out of the 16 guys listed are/were good NBA players. I'm being generous and considering Biedrins a good player. 25%. Only one is an All Star. I bet it's likely you could do the same thing with most picks outside the top 5.

Early projections don't think that Upshaw won't go lottery, and I don't necessarily believe he will be picked #11, but if a team thinks he can be a starting center and defensive anchor, history shows it would be FS not to pick him, regardless of his baggage.

Good research and I'd be interested to see if 11 has just been unlucky or if 10, 12 and 13 have sucked too.

I'm sure most of those teams thought their picks could be something worthwhile though so I'm not sure thinking Upshaw can be a starting center means it would be FS not to take him. There's probably four or five guys that all those teams think *could* turn into something at that point, the trick is picking the right one.

Today's game is tied to skill ... you have to have offensive skill to be successful.

Towns doesn't wow me as an offensive player. Okafor does.

You are FS if you think that Okafor has maxed out on his talent. That's the most FS thing I've seen on this bored in a long time.

How many times did Towns get double teamed immediately upon catching the ball? Were other teams fearful of his abilities? Was it because there were so many other good players on Kentucky that nobody felt like they could double him?

Why were teams doubling Okafor on the catch almost every single time? Was it because Duke didn't have any other players on their roster?

It's clear that we'll agree to disagree ...

There's a lot of rawness to Okafor's game right now ... but he's got all the skill in the world.

My bet is that Minnesota takes Towns ... and they'll be happy with the pick.

The Lakers will be doing cartwheels with Okafor.

I've watched them both play about half a dozen times each.

I'm impressed by Towns and his athletic ability. He's probably the safer of the picks IMO because you know you're going to get a strong defensive effort and he's probably the more likely player to be a stretch 4/5 that will fit better with most teams. I don't think he's an Anthony Davis caliber player ... although I do think he has a more natural jumper at this stage than Davis.

It's interesting what you say about athletic ability. Watching some of Towns you see some stiffness in his game - kind of reminds me a bit of Noah in that regards.

When I'm saying Okafor is raw, it's not in his ability to score in the post. No question that that's advanced. What I'm talking about is more his defensive effort, improvement as a passer in his ability to beat the double teams that he was seeing (particularly in the latter rounds of the tournament), and his ability to make free throws. I don't think he's necessarily a poor athlete but I do think that he's most likely still growing into his body still and will improve his athletic ability as he continues to mature physically.

The comparison that gets thrown around a lot with Okafor is Tim Duncan and I personally think that there's a lot of similarities there. In particular, Duncan's known for his footwork (why he's known as the Big Fundamental) and when you watch the moves that Okafor has in the post it's very clear that he's got a great sense for not only making those moves look easy (which is a sign of athleticism for me) but also a great basketball IQ to intuitively know which move to make at which point in time. Duncan's been criticized at times in his career for his inability to make FTs. His numbers decreased each year he was at Wake and was as low as 60% in the NBA. I'm not sure that Okafor will ever have the ceiling as a FT shooter that Duncan has had at a year upwards of 80%, but he should be better than his numbers show. He's got a very nice, soft touch. One of the staples of his post game is his ability to face up and shoot a nice 12-15 footer from the angle. What I see in Okafor is a guy that has probably spent more time growing up practicing his footwork and the associated fundamentals of that than practicing his FTs. I don't think it will take a lot to get him up to 60-70% from the line.

As for the athletic bigs that you mentioned, you could offer a similar statement by replacing Duncan with Okafor. The thing is that when you have the ability to make move after move in the post, you'll find a way to destroy others. Against someone like Howard, you can use his aggressiveness against him.

Poeltl is a solid big. Okafor had 6 shot attempts in that game. If memory serves me, I'm pretty sure Utah did just about everything possible to limit Okafor's influence on the game by slowing down the tempo, putting 2 bigs on Okafor anytime he caught the ball within range, and forcing others to beat them. Same strategy that Gonzaga used as well.

The worst case for Okafor is that he's exactly who you say he is. He's a big guy with some decent post moves that isn't athletic enough to play with the higher end bigs. The best case is that he's compared to a top 8-10 player of all time. Personally, I'll go with the guy that has the higher ceiling and remember that both of these guys are 19 years old and while many will be making judgments on their abilities over the next 2-3 years, the reality is that seeing where they are at in 5-7 years will be the true indication of their abilities.

ThomasFremont said:

Take this shit to the Mel Kiper bored.

The newly created gulag would be more appropriate

What makes all of this hard is that each of the top 4 players in this draft are all essentially freshman that are 19 years old. There's so much development left in their games that it's really a lottery trying to figure out who the best one will be between the ages of 24-29.

I like the Horford comparisons for Towns from an offensive standpoint. I see some Noah in his defensive game. That's definitely a multiple time all-star player. However, I also would agree that that's not going to be a guy that will be the difference maker on a championship team. That's probably a #2 or #3 option guy and someone who could need a change of scenery to hit his top end (see Pau Gasol).

I haven't seen Mudiay play so it's hard to comment on him. What I've heard is that he could very easily be the best player in the draft and in many ways probably the best suited to play in New York for a number of reasons.

I see Russell as a high end scoring type of player whose ultimate ceiling will depend on how much he develops in his game around being a scorer. It's interesting the comparisons to Harden for Mudiay because I see similar in Russell in his ability to dominate the ball, score, and create for others. He needs to become more refined offensively to satisfy that role and defensively could stand to get much better. Redd's probably more of a mid-case for him as Redd never had the ability to create and score off the bounce in ways that Russell should be able to do so.

Okafor's the high end car of the draft. Al Jefferson is a good player ... but Okafor has a higher ceiling for sure. I expect that the ability to compromise defenses from the post will become a big time skill in the near future to combat this small ball style that is en vogue at the moment. IF Okafor is able to develop himself into a strong passer from the post (and he's shown glimpses of that ability) as well as the ability to emphasize his conditioning and focus on defense (I don't think he's as poor of a defender as others do), then he can be the best player in this draft by far. Low end is probably a past his prime Moses Malone type of player that can score/rebound on the interior but is a liability in many respects.

A few other guys in this draft that I think have a chance to be really good players in the league:

Myles Turner (how was Rick Barnes a bad coach)
Frank Kaminsky (if he finds the right fit and is used correctly)
Cameron Payne (will most likely be the guy that people look back at the draft in 5 years and try to figure out why he was taken so low)
Jerian Grant (will be a solid rotational player in the league for a long time)

RaceBannon said:

HuskiesADW said:

@RoadDawg55

I agree with your assessment.

He is a good scorer on the low block but I don't see the lateral quickness or explosiveness that will make him an good defender in the NBA. He also needs to work on his body because at times he looked a little out of shape during the season. I don't think Brook Lopez is a good comparison here as I think Okafor will be a much better rebounder in the NBA. I think a slightly more athletic Al Jefferson is a good comparison here.

When I watch Towns I don't really see the Anthony Davis comparisons. I think he will be a taller Al Horford who will be a great defensive big/rebounder but not a great scoring option. I think his range is very good and he will be able to hit the mid range jumpers. Maybe even stretch out his shot to the 3pt line. If he gets drafted on a team with a good point guard he will excel running the pick and roll or pick and pop sets as he should get some open looks.

Although Okafor/Davis will go 1/2 I think the player that has the best potential to become a superstar in this draft is Mudiay. I watched him play in China and he is very athletic guard who can play both ways. Watching him play I saw a little bit of James Harden in the way he attacked the rim and drew fouls. I didn't see the John Wall comparisons as John Wall doesn't really position his body very well to pick up fouls when he drives. He just uses his explosiveness to beat his man off the dribble. He had an explosive first step and could go by just about anyone on the court. That said he lacked the finishing ability that James Harden has and relied on getting calls. That said he needs to work on his shot as it didn't look very good when I watched a game.

My NBA comparisons:
Towns
Ceiling: A better Al Horford. Not a superstar player but will make his share of all star appearances.
Floor: A space making big that will defend, rebound and knock down the 15ft jumper. Maybe a more athletic Kurt Thomas.
Okafor
Ceiling: Al Jefferson who is a slightly better defender.
Floor: Huge bust. Honestly if he won't be able to score in the NBA he won't last. He is probably going to be a below average defender and an average rebounder. Just a big off the bench.
Mudiay -
Ceiling: A James Harden type of guard who dominates the ball. I don't think he will ever be as good of a shooter as Harden is, but he will be a better passer.
Floor: A 6th man off the bench who can score although not really that efficiently.
Russell
Ceiling: I really don't know. Maybe someone like Michael Redd? He will be a good shooter who can hit the 3 and pull up in the mid range.
Floor: A shooter who plays ok team defense but not a good individual defender.

Safe picks: Russell, Towns, Okafor Mudiay in that order.
Upside: Mudiay, Towns, Okafor, Russell in that order.

Tequilla said:

What makes all of this hard is that each of the top 4 players in this draft are all essentially freshman that are 19 years old. There's so much development left in their games that it's really a lottery trying to figure out who the best one will be between the ages of 24-29.

I like the Horford comparisons for Towns from an offensive standpoint. I see some Noah in his defensive game. That's definitely a multiple time all-star player. However, I also would agree that that's not going to be a guy that will be the difference maker on a championship team. That's probably a #2 or #3 option guy and someone who could need a change of scenery to hit his top end (see Pau Gasol).

I haven't seen Mudiay play so it's hard to comment on him. What I've heard is that he could very easily be the best player in the draft and in many ways probably the best suited to play in New York for a number of reasons.

I see Russell as a high end scoring type of player whose ultimate ceiling will depend on how much he develops in his game around being a scorer. It's interesting the comparisons to Harden for Mudiay because I see similar in Russell in his ability to dominate the ball, score, and create for others. He needs to become more refined offensively to satisfy that role and defensively could stand to get much better. Redd's probably more of a mid-case for him as Redd never had the ability to create and score off the bounce in ways that Russell should be able to do so.

Okafor's the high end car of the draft. Al Jefferson is a good player ... but Okafor has a higher ceiling for sure. I expect that the ability to compromise defenses from the post will become a big time skill in the near future to combat this small ball style that is en vogue at the moment. IF Okafor is able to develop himself into a strong passer from the post (and he's shown glimpses of that ability) as well as the ability to emphasize his conditioning and focus on defense (I don't think he's as poor of a defender as others do), then he can be the best player in this draft by far. Low end is probably a past his prime Moses Malone type of player that can score/rebound on the interior but is a liability in many respects.

A few other guys in this draft that I think have a chance to be really good players in the league:

Myles Turner (how was Rick Barnes a bad coach)
Frank Kaminsky (if he finds the right fit and is used correctly)
Cameron Payne (will most likely be the guy that people look back at the draft in 5 years and try to figure out why he was taken so low)
Jerian Grant (will be a solid rotational player in the league for a long time)

Tequilla said:

What makes all of this hard is that each of the top 4 players in this draft are all essentially freshman that are 19 years old. There's so much development left in their games that it's really a lottery trying to figure out who the best one will be between the ages of 24-29.

I like the Horford comparisons for Towns from an offensive standpoint. I see some Noah in his defensive game. That's definitely a multiple time all-star player. However, I also would agree that that's not going to be a guy that will be the difference maker on a championship team. That's probably a #2 or #3 option guy and someone who could need a change of scenery to hit his top end (see Pau Gasol).

I haven't seen Mudiay play so it's hard to comment on him. What I've heard is that he could very easily be the best player in the draft and in many ways probably the best suited to play in New York for a number of reasons.

I see Russell as a high end scoring type of player whose ultimate ceiling will depend on how much he develops in his game around being a scorer. It's interesting the comparisons to Harden for Mudiay because I see similar in Russell in his ability to dominate the ball, score, and create for others. He needs to become more refined offensively to satisfy that role and defensively could stand to get much better. Redd's probably more of a mid-case for him as Redd never had the ability to create and score off the bounce in ways that Russell should be able to do so.

Okafor's the high end car of the draft. Al Jefferson is a good player ... but Okafor has a higher ceiling for sure. I expect that the ability to compromise defenses from the post will become a big time skill in the near future to combat this small ball style that is en vogue at the moment. IF Okafor is able to develop himself into a strong passer from the post (and he's shown glimpses of that ability) as well as the ability to emphasize his conditioning and focus on defense (I don't think he's as poor of a defender as others do), then he can be the best player in this draft by far. Low end is probably a past his prime Moses Malone type of player that can score/rebound on the interior but is a liability in many respects.

A few other guys in this draft that I think have a chance to be really good players in the league:

Myles Turner (how was Rick Barnes a bad coach)
Frank Kaminsky (if he finds the right fit and is used correctly)
Cameron Payne (will most likely be the guy that people look back at the draft in 5 years and try to figure out why he was taken so low)
Jerian Grant (will be a solid rotational player in the league for a long time)

Huh?

disagree