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Attrition Revisited
HFNY
Member Posts: 4,524
Sarkisian was a software salesman before getting into coaching so the positive is that he largely knew how to sell Husky Football. However, he clearly didn't know much about building a program for the long-term and particularly didn't know how to balance a roster while avoiding substantial attrition.
In just the 2010, 2011, and 2012 recruiting classes, the attrition of Sarkisian recruited players has been shocking:
2010: 13
2011: 8 (not including early NFL departures Sankey and ASJ...and not counting Waste-Of-Space Derrick Brown).
2012: 9
THAT'S 30 PLAYERS IN JUST 3 CLASSES! Normal recruiting classes are 20-25 so we lost nearly 1 1/2 recruiting classes in just 3 years of Sarkisian Sloppiness.
How many recruiting classes will it take for Petersen to reach an attrition of 30 players. 5 classes? 6 classes? Lavon Washington was the first guy to bounce from the 2014 class but he actually committed to Sarkisian first he shouldn't count (and did somethingFS to get kicked off the team).
In just the 2010, 2011, and 2012 recruiting classes, the attrition of Sarkisian recruited players has been shocking:
2010: 13
2011: 8 (not including early NFL departures Sankey and ASJ...and not counting Waste-Of-Space Derrick Brown).
2012: 9
THAT'S 30 PLAYERS IN JUST 3 CLASSES! Normal recruiting classes are 20-25 so we lost nearly 1 1/2 recruiting classes in just 3 years of Sarkisian Sloppiness.
How many recruiting classes will it take for Petersen to reach an attrition of 30 players. 5 classes? 6 classes? Lavon Washington was the first guy to bounce from the 2014 class but he actually committed to Sarkisian first he shouldn't count (and did somethingFS to get kicked off the team).
Comments
The Cuogs numbers are astounding..
take a look at 2010's 4* recruits
Shirley
Parker
Patoae
Hatchie
Smith
Cooper
Kohler
Porter
Montana
Young
Parker is really the only one that played well for the duration of his career, the others either didn't play at all, left early because they weren't any good to begin with, were average players through their career, or had one big year.
In sum, including injuries is the best way to do the Apples to Apples comparison.
If you take 25 guys each year, RS all frosh, and all eligible players stay all 5 years in the program (125 eligible scholarships), the program can absorb an average of 10 people leaving before exhausting their eligibility (assuming 4 years eligible to leave the program - after your RS year, Frosh, Soph, and Junior years).
So while Sark's numbers look bad, it's reasonable enough when you look at taking full classes each year.
The underlying PROBLEM with taking a full class each year is that the overwhelming number of players on your roster are underclassmen. And as we all know, if you really want to win at a high level, your best players in the program should be the guys that have been in the program 3-5 years sprinkled in with a handful of younger players that have the talent to crack into the rotation.
Our defense is a great example of the above. Shelton was probably an above average player through his first 2 years in the program. Last year he started to become a little more consistent and contend on the fringes of being an all-conference performer. This year he will be a 1st team all conference player and in consideration for All Americas in year 4 in the program. Kikaha has had injury issues, but much the same. He's in his 5th year in the program and is absolutely dominating. Shaq was an above average PAC player for most of his first two years. This year he's an absolute difference maker.
The 2012 class is now true Juniors and RS-Sophs but it already has a washout rate of 41%! That also hurts because our depth is being tested at OL (2 washouts from that class in OTs Nathan Dean and Taylor Hindy, who was a panic offer), the secondary (two washouts there in Darien Washington and Cleveland Wallace), and RB (2 washouts in Erich Wilson and Ryan McDaniel).
Talent / depth wise, it makes sense we are now struggling at QB, OL, RB, and the secondary.
-Montana and Derrick Brown were busts as QBs in 2010/2011
-Porter, Kohler, Hindy, and Dean washed out for the OL from the 2010 and 2012 classes. Only grabbed 2 OL in the 2011 class and all that combines as to why we are having to play a RS-Frosh RT a year early.
-RB wouldn't be so bad if Callier hadn't gotten hurt but Erich Wilson, Ryan McDaniel, and Kyle Lewis either never played a down or barely played.
-RS-SR (2010 recruit) Taz Stevenson is Hawaii's leading tackler and he'd be nice to have to compete with true frosh Kevin King, especially with Trevor Walker out now. RS-JR James Sample of the 2011 class played as a true frosh, hurt his shoulder, went the JC route, and now will be starting tonight at safety for #25 Louisville against #1 FSU. He's second on the team in tackles with 3 INTs and 7 passes defended. If he had stuck around, he'd be starting over King for sure and King never would've had to play last year! Evan Zeger also washed out and could've been a back-up SS as a RS-JR. And we wouldn't be starting a true frosh at CB (Sidney Jones) if the former staff had recruited better at CB as both Cleveland Wallace and Darien Washington washed out.
I get your points.
All I was trying to get at was that the numbers of the attrition isn't necessarily a bad thing in an ideal sense ... but when you look at all the other components, the attrition is too high.
if you aren't taking 25 every class you're either ready to challenge for a natty or you aren't attritting properly and will probably be fired soon anyway.