We'll Make It Real Simple
Comments
-
Sark would have taken all the front line players from the 2014 team that went 8-6 with him to USC. Shaq, Kikaha, Peters etc. Maybe Ross although he’d been fighting injuries. Vita was a recruit that could have jumped to USC but was re-sold on UW by Pete. The young guys from that team that contributed to the 2016 run are probably still at UW as Sark probably thought he could upgrade them through recruiting at USC. 14 and 15 are most likely a lot better records at UW because Pete could have taken the very best from Boise to help him set his program culture here at UW. Remember, The 2015 Boise team won the Fiesta Bowl. I’ll bet they go 9-5 in 2014 and 9-4 or 10-3 in 2015.
-
if some other place is fucking stupid enough to take Fisch off UW’s hands, you kiss them on the cheek and go help the fucker pack
-
I surely do miss the era of relative coaching stability and @creepycoug starting sentences with a capital letter.
#MoralRot -
There are plenty of legit reasons to question whether giving Jedd an extension is good business … I'm not immune to that line of thinking
I do see some significant roster gaps that we still need 1-2 more classes to cover the institutional rot that was in place after the 2023 season … those paying attention know that DeBoer's recruiting wasn't good and that the roster that Jedd inherited was not good.
IF Jedd leaves then the odds of taking at least 1 step backwards in terms of the roster and we're looking at likely a 2-3 year rebuild. It's easy to say "go spend money to buy a roster" but what gives you any confidence that UW and Pat Chun will be doing that?
When people ask "who to hire" if Jedd leaves, it's an honest one. Maybe you can get a better coach but they don't have the roster to bring with them … it's all about getting the players right?
I do think Jedd has a relatively good floor here in the 8+ win range. I do think it's fair to question how often he can get to the 10+ range. Saturday at Wisconsin didn't help in that regard.
My opinion is that I'd rather push the decision on Jedd leaving (either because he's not good enough and gets fired or he is good enough and goes to the NFL, etc.) to 1-2 years down the road. I'd rather be facing a scenario of going into the coaching market in what is likely a better position than where we are today.
But I can completely understand not extending him or whatever is being more to the program's benefit than Jedd's benefit.
I can completely understand choosing the $10M buyout if someone (UCLA) chooses to poach him.
Regardless UW isn't operating from a position of strength here and that's not a good thing
I also don't trust Chun at all … so there's that
-
I'm ESL man. Don't hate; motivate.
Sides, I was pulling for your Doyers. Help a guy out. -
@creepycoug por la gente guey
-
Dude, if you haven't before, listen to radio coverage of the world series in Spanish. I listened to 80% of game 7 on my way back from wherever. Those guys are fucking hilarious and awesome.
-
His floor is 6 wins. It's what he's done.
-
The "who could we get" argument is, and always has been, retarded. It's not an honest question, it's why the halfbrain revolution started. There are 8 billion people on earth. Don't be a fucking pussy because you're afraid UW might do worse than Fisch. It's a logical fallacy to flip that impetus onto the fans wanting a coach gone. We don't need to be the ones who know the answer, we can be the ones who know there's a problem.
Oh, and the answer is "someone better". That's who you could get. The Eagles fired Doug Pederson 3 years after winning a Super Bowl and got a better coach.
-
Part of any decision making process is understanding the potential options available and mitigating against any downside risk
Having an alternative on the table to Jedd is not a trivial topic and informs decision making in two major cases:
- If you were to fire Jedd then who is on the short list to hire? Given the $20M+ that you'd be paying Jedd out for for the remainder of his contract, you need to be sure that your option provides a positive return on the decision. If you can't do that, then it's likely to be a reckless decision
- In evaluating what "extension" to offer him and how tight to be with the terms is determinant with the variables that comes from him finding a different landing spot. There's the money that the AD would get (offset by the likely money that would go out the door to hire a replacement), the impact to the roster, and what the coaching market looks like by being reactionary (coach leaving) vs proactive (coach being fired)
There is a cumulative effect that is tied to your program with a lack of stability and on-field success. As the on-field success drops the impact of how the program is perceived as you're looking at how potential candidates view the upside of the job as well as whether or not they will receive a fair shake to build and find success.
Firing Jedd at this point in my mind isn't on the table.
Jedd may leave and I've articulated plenty what likely happens if he leaves.
What would be unknown in that scenario is who gets hired and how that hire would mitigate the roster departures with what gets brought in. I don't see a world where UW net/net is ahead in that scenario going into next year.
The way I see the inevitable end of Jedd's tenure at UW in order of best to worst case scenarios as it pertains to impact to the program:
- Turns the program as his roster builds, increases the talent level, makes an impact in the CFP, gets courted by and accepts a NFL job … will have the least impact to decimating the roster via the portal (assuming a solid hire is made) and should have the best path to making a high caliber hire
- Fisch turns out to be Sark 2.0 and effectively gets fired after Year 4 or Year 5 where he doesn't have a guaranteed job lined up and/or the roster doesn't materially portal as they are able to see that Fisch isn't the man to get to the CFP … this also allows you to likely get ahead of the coaching search and be proactive on the hire
- Fisch leaves to another CFB job on his own accord, takes the balance of the roster with you, you're reactive to the hire in a saturated market where you're likely looking at meh hiring options that sets your program back at least 1-2 years if not a little longer
I'd be trying to avoid Option 3 at all costs …
If you're doing things right as the AD as part of the "extension" I'd build it into heavy incentives, increasing the buyout to further avoid 3, and trying to minimize the payout if you have to do Option 2 either by reducing the % of what gets paid our or ensuring solid mitigation measures (i.e. Jedd has to pursue other jobs and any salary tied to that offsets what UW owes as part of the buyout)
