Agree or disagree with Daddy?

Einstein, you do realize that purchasing gas is not the same thing as being an ally?

He yelled at short man

The reality of Europe's dependence on Russia for energy is quite nuanced. So, if you post a single stat and say "you're an idiot" it works as a specious argument. The reality is that all of these issues don't work well with an argument you can put in one sentence. I gathered some bullet points:

Overview

• Europe has struggled to fully cut off its reliance on Russian gas, despite efforts since the Ukraine invasion in 2022.
• Russian energy was a major geopolitical tool, but Europe responded with diversification efforts.
• The transition away from Russian gas has been uneven across European nations.

How Russia Gained Control Over Europe’s Gas Supply

• Russia used long-term pipeline contracts to dominate Europe’s natural gas market.
• Nord Stream pipelines to Germany were key, bypassing Ukraine and other transit nations.
• Russia’s involvement in Germany’s gas storage deepened dependency.

Russia’s Weaponization of Energy & Europe's Response

• After the invasion of Ukraine, Russia reduced gas supplies to Europe.
• Russia demanded payments in rubles to counteract Western sanctions.
• Europe rapidly adjusted by securing new suppliers and reducing demand.

Current State of European Gas Supply

• Before the war: 40% of EU gas came from Russia.
• In 2023: Russia still supplied 14.8% of Europe's gas.
• Some EU countries, like Austria and Hungary, remain highly dependent.
• LNG (liquefied natural gas) imports have increased, especially from the U.S.

Regional Adjustments in Energy Supply

• Germany: Shifted to Norwegian gas and LNG, but still faces high energy costs.
• Poland & the Baltics: Secured alternatives through pipelines from Norway and LNG imports.
• France & the Netherlands: Rely on LNG but still buy Russian gas under old contracts.
• Italy & Greece: Import more from Algeria, Libya, and Qatar while building new LNG terminals.
• Spain & Portugal: Least affected due to reliance on LNG and North African gas.

Challenges & Remaining Dependencies

• Some Russian gas still enters the EU via Turkey and Ukraine.
• The Ukraine transit agreement for Russian gas ends in 2024, creating uncertainty.
• Russian LNG imports to the EU have ironically increased.
• LNG is more expensive than pipeline gas, affecting industrial competitiveness.

U.S. Role & Political Considerations

• The U.S. has become Europe’s top LNG supplier, but future exports depend on U.S. politics.
• Biden paused new LNG export approvals, raising concerns.
• A potential Trump presidency may alter U.S. energy policies, impacting European security.

Key Takeaways & Future Outlook

• Europe’s energy shift is incomplete and costly, affecting industries and consumers.
• Energy security remains fragile, with risks from geopolitical shifts and market volatility.
• The EU is balancing energy security, climate goals, and affordability in its transition.
• Future policies must address infrastructure gaps, market integration, and energy sovereignty.