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REAL NY6 Scenarios

whlinder
whlinder Member Posts: 5,274
in Hardcore Husky Board
It's hard.

The only game that really matters is USC-Utah. Unless we* rocket up the rankings, it all depends on that game.

Assumed new rankings:
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. USC
5. tOSU
6. Alabama
7. Tennessee
8. Penn State
9. Kansas State
10. Washington dammit
Behind Washington: Clemson, LSU

Perhaps the committee comes out differently, but I'm taking the current standings besides dropping teams that lost, while ordering by number of losses (tOSU ahead of Bama after a loss)

This is the year that the Semis do not have any conference affiliation (Peach/Fiesta), so bowls which lose their conference champ to the playoff will replace their champ with another from the same conference. Therefore, if chalk holds (USC, TCU, Michigan, Georgia all win), the bowls will be:

Chalk Scenario
1. Georgia (Peach, playoff)
2. Michigan (Fiesta, playoff)
3. TCU (Fiesta, playoff)
4. USC (Peach, playoff)
5. tOSU (Rose, B1G champ replacement)
6. Alabama (Sugar, SEC champ replacement)
7. Tennessee
8. Penn State
9. Kansas State (Sugar, B12 champ replacement, yes even at 9-4)
10. Washington (Rose, P12 champ replacement)
ACC winner (Orange)
Group of 5 highest ranked

Kansas State and UW would be allocated to their NY 6 games before Tenn/PSU. (KSU likely falls a couple of ranking spots but it doesn't matter here) Tenn and PSU would still make it, with one to the Orange and the other to the Cotton to play the G5, but we are picked first.


Now, let's say USC loses. We will assume in the final rankings they are ahead of us and everyone just moves up 1 slot.
USC Cuogs it scenario
1. Georgia (Peach, playoff)
2. Michigan (Fiesta, playoff)
3. TCU (Fiesta, playoff)
4. tOSU (Peach, playoff)
5. Alabama (Sugar, SEC champ replacement)
6. Tennessee
7. Penn State (Rose, B1G champ replacement)
8. Kansas State (Sugar, B12 champ replacement)
9. USC
10. Washington
Utah (Rose)
ACC winner (Orange)
Group of 5 highest ranked

Tennessee and USC get picked.

Bama over tOSU does the same:
1. Georgia (Peach, playoff)
2. Michigan (Fiesta, playoff)
3. TCU (Fiesta, playoff)
4. Alabama (Peach, playoff)
5. tOSU (Rose, B1G champ replacement)
6. Tennessee (Sugar, SEC champ replacement)
7. Penn State
8. Kansas State (Sugar, B12 champ replacement)
9. USC
10. Washington
Utah (Rose)
ACC winner (Orange)
Group of 5 highest ranked

Let's do, oh, Georgia losing, USC winning:

1. Michigan (Peach, playoff)
2. TCU (Fiesta, playoff)
3. Georgia (Fiesta, playoff)
4. USC (Peach, playoff)
5. tOSU (Rose, B1G champ replacement)
6. Alabama
7. Tennessee
8. Penn State
9. Kansas State (Sugar, B12 champ replacement)
10. Washington (Rose, P12 champ replacement)
LSU (Sugar, SEC Champ)
ACC winner (Orange)
Group of 5 highest ranked

Penn State loses out. SEC! SEC!

All of this is to say that only 2 NY6 spots will come down to the rankings, and unless we end up ahead of USC after they lose or Penn State or Tennessee, it won't matter. I don't have any confidence we'll be treated that way, especially given how they have ranked P12 teams so far (USC behind LSU because of defense lol, us behind Kansas State, Oregon State way behind other shitty 3 loss teams). Otherwise, all that matters is USC wins and we are the highest ranked P12 team, which we will be. They're not taking 9-4 Utah over us.

Other ones:
All the Chaos (Purdue, LSU, Kansas State, Utah win)

1. Georgia (Peach, playoff)
2. Michigan (Fiesta, playoff)
3. TCU (Fiesta, playoff)
4. tOSU (Peach)
5. Alabama
6. Tennessee
7. Penn State
8. Kansas State (Sugar, B12 champ)
9. USC
10. Washington
Utah (Rose)
Purdue (Rose)
LSU (Sugar)
ACC winner (Orange)
Group of 5 highest ranked

Whoever ends up ranked 5 and 6 goes, all other non-champ top 10 teams do not. I don't really think the undefeated teams would drop in such a scenario.

One final one, which is my favorite, but seems incredibly unlikely:

USC wins, TCU loses, drops out of top 4 because committee is infatuated with Ohio State

1. Georgia (Peach, playoff)
2. Michigan (Fiesta, playoff)
3. USC (Fiesta, playoff)
4. tOSU (Peach, playoff)
5. TCU
6. Alabama (Sugar, SEC champ replacement)
7. Tennessee
8. Penn State (Rose, P12 champ replacement)
9. Kansas State (Sugar, B12 champ replacement, yes even at 9-4)
10. Washington (Rose, P12 champ replacement)
ACC winner (Orange)
Group of 5 highest ranked

We get the "reverse 2016" where USC makes the playoff and we get a cushy Rose Bowl matchup with Penn State. (I would love to find a way for USC to be ranked #4 in this and send them to Atlanta to play Georgia, but don't really see how tOSU would be ranked ahead of USC at this point)

TLDR go Trojans
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Comments

  • YellowSnow
    YellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 37,319 Founders Club
    Row Peter puffers are the most cerebral of student athletes.
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  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,187 Founders Club
    whlinder said:

    It's hard.

    The only game that really matters is USC-Utah. Unless we* rocket up the rankings, it all depends on that game.

    Assumed new rankings:
    1. Georgia
    2. Michigan
    3. TCU
    4. USC
    5. tOSU
    6. Alabama
    7. Tennessee
    8. Penn State
    9. Kansas State
    10. Washington dammit
    Behind Washington: Clemson, LSU

    Perhaps the committee comes out differently, but I'm taking the current standings besides dropping teams that lost, while ordering by number of losses (tOSU ahead of Bama after a loss)

    This is the year that the Semis do not have any conference affiliation (Peach/Fiesta), so bowls which lose their conference champ to the playoff will replace their champ with another from the same conference. Therefore, if chalk holds (USC, TCU, Michigan, Georgia all win), the bowls will be:

    Chalk Scenario
    1. Georgia (Peach, playoff)
    2. Michigan (Fiesta, playoff)
    3. TCU (Fiesta, playoff)
    4. USC (Peach, playoff)
    5. tOSU (Rose, B1G champ replacement)
    6. Alabama (Sugar, SEC champ replacement)
    7. Tennessee
    8. Penn State
    9. Kansas State (Sugar, B12 champ replacement, yes even at 9-4)
    10. Washington (Rose, P12 champ replacement)
    ACC winner (Orange)
    Group of 5 highest ranked

    Kansas State and UW would be allocated to their NY 6 games before Tenn/PSU. (KSU likely falls a couple of ranking spots but it doesn't matter here) Tenn and PSU would still make it, with one to the Orange and the other to the Cotton to play the G5, but we are picked first.


    Now, let's say USC loses. We will assume in the final rankings they are ahead of us and everyone just moves up 1 slot.
    USC Cuogs it scenario
    1. Georgia (Peach, playoff)
    2. Michigan (Fiesta, playoff)
    3. TCU (Fiesta, playoff)
    4. tOSU (Peach, playoff)
    5. Alabama (Sugar, SEC champ replacement)
    6. Tennessee
    7. Penn State (Rose, B1G champ replacement)
    8. Kansas State (Sugar, B12 champ replacement)
    9. USC
    10. Washington
    Utah (Rose)
    ACC winner (Orange)
    Group of 5 highest ranked

    Tennessee and USC get picked.

    Bama over tOSU does the same:
    1. Georgia (Peach, playoff)
    2. Michigan (Fiesta, playoff)
    3. TCU (Fiesta, playoff)
    4. Alabama (Peach, playoff)
    5. tOSU (Rose, B1G champ replacement)
    6. Tennessee (Sugar, SEC champ replacement)
    7. Penn State
    8. Kansas State (Sugar, B12 champ replacement)
    9. USC
    10. Washington
    Utah (Rose)
    ACC winner (Orange)
    Group of 5 highest ranked

    Let's do, oh, Georgia losing, USC winning:

    1. Michigan (Peach, playoff)
    2. TCU (Fiesta, playoff)
    3. Georgia (Fiesta, playoff)
    4. USC (Peach, playoff)
    5. tOSU (Rose, B1G champ replacement)
    6. Alabama
    7. Tennessee
    8. Penn State
    9. Kansas State (Sugar, B12 champ replacement)
    10. Washington (Rose, P12 champ replacement)
    LSU (Sugar, SEC Champ)
    ACC winner (Orange)
    Group of 5 highest ranked

    Penn State loses out. SEC! SEC!

    All of this is to say that only 2 NY6 spots will come down to the rankings, and unless we end up ahead of USC after they lose or Penn State or Tennessee, it won't matter. I don't have any confidence we'll be treated that way, especially given how they have ranked P12 teams so far (USC behind LSU because of defense lol, us behind Kansas State, Oregon State way behind other shitty 3 loss teams). Otherwise, all that matters is USC wins and we are the highest ranked P12 team, which we will be. They're not taking 9-4 Utah over us.

    Other ones:
    All the Chaos (Purdue, LSU, Kansas State, Utah win)

    1. Georgia (Peach, playoff)
    2. Michigan (Fiesta, playoff)
    3. TCU (Fiesta, playoff)
    4. tOSU (Peach)
    5. Alabama
    6. Tennessee
    7. Penn State
    8. Kansas State (Sugar, B12 champ)
    9. USC
    10. Washington
    Utah (Rose)
    Purdue (Rose)
    LSU (Sugar)
    ACC winner (Orange)
    Group of 5 highest ranked

    Whoever ends up ranked 5 and 6 goes, all other non-champ top 10 teams do not. I don't really think the undefeated teams would drop in such a scenario.

    One final one, which is my favorite, but seems incredibly unlikely:

    USC wins, TCU loses, drops out of top 4 because committee is infatuated with Ohio State

    1. Georgia (Peach, playoff)
    2. Michigan (Fiesta, playoff)
    3. USC (Fiesta, playoff)
    4. tOSU (Peach, playoff)
    5. TCU
    6. Alabama (Sugar, SEC champ replacement)
    7. Tennessee
    8. Penn State (Rose, P12 champ replacement)
    9. Kansas State (Sugar, B12 champ replacement, yes even at 9-4)
    10. Washington (Rose, P12 champ replacement)
    ACC winner (Orange)
    Group of 5 highest ranked

    We get the "reverse 2016" where USC makes the playoff and we get a cushy Rose Bowl matchup with Penn State. (I would love to find a way for USC to be ranked #4 in this and send them to Atlanta to play Georgia, but don't really see how tOSU would be ranked ahead of USC at this point)

    TLDR go Trojans

    #fighton
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  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,187 Founders Club
    YellowSnow said:

    Row Peter puffers are the most cerebral of student athletes.

    Disagree.
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  • YellowSnow
    YellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 37,319 Founders Club
    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    YellowSnow said:

    Row Peter puffers are the most cerebral of student athletes.

    Disagree.
    Sorry.

    *Varsity Sport Student Athletes
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  • backthepack
    backthepack Member Posts: 19,937
    I want to play a Kyle McCord led Ohio State team (Stroud aint playing)
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  • LawDawg1
    LawDawg1 Member Posts: 3,942
    Did we win yet?
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  • Geevis_and_Butthead
    Geevis_and_Butthead Member Posts: 1,000
    backthepack said:

    I want to play a Kyle McCord led Ohio State team (Stroud aint playing)

    Better chance for UW win?

    MvP vs. Stroud?

    of

    D-Mo/Sam vs. McCord?
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  • Joey
    Joey Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 7,283 Founders Club
    KState won’t be ranked nine if they lose to TCU
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  • whlinder
    whlinder Member Posts: 5,274
    JoeEDangerously said:

    KState won’t be ranked nine if they lose to TCU

    No, but they will still go to the Sugar as the B12 champ replacement, so for ordering purposes their rank doesn’t matter.
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  • Doogles
    Doogles Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 12,730 Founders Club
    whlinder said:


    JoeEDangerously said:

    KState won’t be ranked nine if they lose to TCU

    No, but they will still go to the Sugar as the B12 champ replacement, so for ordering purposes their rank doesn’t matter.
    This is where I'm confused, are you sure the sugar is required to keep tradition here? I know the Rose are stick up their asses about that stuff, but I thought it becomes at large at this point.
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  • whlinder
    whlinder Member Posts: 5,274
    Doogles said:

    whlinder said:


    JoeEDangerously said:

    KState won’t be ranked nine if they lose to TCU

    No, but they will still go to the Sugar as the B12 champ replacement, so for ordering purposes their rank doesn’t matter.
    This is where I'm confused, are you sure the sugar is required to keep tradition here? I know the Rose are stick up their asses about that stuff, but I thought it becomes at large at this point.
    https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2016/10/24/selection-committee-protocol

    Point 10.C
    When not hosting semifinals, the Orange, Rose and Sugar bowls (the “contract bowls”) will make their own pairings outside the CFP arrangement. Generally, they will take the champion of their contracted conference; if that champion qualifies for the playoff, the bowl will then choose a replacement from that conference.

    Orange Bowl: ACC vs. SEC or Big Ten*
    Rose Bowl: Big Ten vs. Pac‐12
    Sugar Bowl: SEC vs. Big 12
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  • Doogles
    Doogles Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 12,730 Founders Club
    whlinder said:

    Doogles said:

    whlinder said:


    JoeEDangerously said:

    KState won’t be ranked nine if they lose to TCU

    No, but they will still go to the Sugar as the B12 champ replacement, so for ordering purposes their rank doesn’t matter.
    This is where I'm confused, are you sure the sugar is required to keep tradition here? I know the Rose are stick up their asses about that stuff, but I thought it becomes at large at this point.
    https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2016/10/24/selection-committee-protocol

    Point 10.C
    When not hosting semifinals, the Orange, Rose and Sugar bowls (the “contract bowls”) will make their own pairings outside the CFP arrangement. Generally, they will take the champion of their contracted conference; if that champion qualifies for the playoff, the bowl will then choose a replacement from that conference.

    Orange Bowl: ACC vs. SEC or Big Ten*
    Rose Bowl: Big Ten vs. Pac‐12
    Sugar Bowl: SEC vs. Big 12
    Here's to some malarkey.
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  • whlinder
    whlinder Member Posts: 5,274
    Doogles said:

    whlinder said:

    Doogles said:

    whlinder said:


    JoeEDangerously said:

    KState won’t be ranked nine if they lose to TCU

    No, but they will still go to the Sugar as the B12 champ replacement, so for ordering purposes their rank doesn’t matter.
    This is where I'm confused, are you sure the sugar is required to keep tradition here? I know the Rose are stick up their asses about that stuff, but I thought it becomes at large at this point.
    https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2016/10/24/selection-committee-protocol

    Point 10.C
    When not hosting semifinals, the Orange, Rose and Sugar bowls (the “contract bowls”) will make their own pairings outside the CFP arrangement. Generally, they will take the champion of their contracted conference; if that champion qualifies for the playoff, the bowl will then choose a replacement from that conference.

    Orange Bowl: ACC vs. SEC or Big Ten*
    Rose Bowl: Big Ten vs. Pac‐12
    Sugar Bowl: SEC vs. Big 12
    Here's to some malarkey.
    I *think* that excess word to cause ambiguity is to reflect that the Orange Bowl has that special arrangement for SEC/B1G/ND
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  • EsophagealFeces
    EsophagealFeces Member Posts: 13,169
    The autism is strong with this one
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  • WoolleyDoog
    WoolleyDoog Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 5,211 Founders Club
    How scared shitless is the Rose Bowel committee right now? They're a very plausible Utah upset right now from possibly having the Utes in the Rose Bowl again against a shitty Pedo State team.
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  • PostGameOrangeSlices
    PostGameOrangeSlices Member Posts: 27,217
    WoolleyDoog said:

    How scared shitless is the Rose Bowel committee right now? They're a very plausible Utah upset right now from possibly having the Utes in the Rose Bowl again against a shitty Pedo State team.

    Look for the refs to help out trooj

    Heisman, playoffs, decent Rose Bowl are all on the line. Bet the farm on USC
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  • chuck
    chuck Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 11,685 Swaye's Wigwam
    PostGameOrangeSlices said:

    WoolleyDoog said:

    How scared shitless is the Rose Bowel committee right now? They're a very plausible Utah upset right now from possibly having the Utes in the Rose Bowl again against a shitty Pedo State team.

    Look for the refs to help out trooj

    Heisman, playoffs, decent Rose Bowl are all on the line. Bet the farm on USC
    Agreed. Their defense will play like it has a pulse and they will plunger Utah
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  • BleachedAnusDawg
    BleachedAnusDawg Member Posts: 13,313 Standard Supporter
    I think USC is going to crush Utah.
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  • insinceredawg
    insinceredawg Member Posts: 5,117
    What I'm hearing

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  • whatshouldicareabout
    whatshouldicareabout Member Posts: 12,991
    insinceredawg said:

    What I'm hearing

    Is there a way I can downvote him from HH?
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  • Doogles
    Doogles Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 12,730 Founders Club
    whlinder said:

    It's hard.


    One final one, which is my favorite, but seems incredibly unlikely:

    USC wins, TCU loses, drops out of top 4 because committee is infatuated with Ohio State

    1. Georgia (Peach, playoff)
    2. Michigan (Fiesta, playoff)
    3. USC (Fiesta, playoff)
    4. tOSU (Peach, playoff)
    5. TCU
    6. Alabama (Sugar, SEC champ replacement)
    7. Tennessee
    8. Penn State (Rose, P12 champ replacement)
    9. Kansas State (Sugar, B12 champ replacement, yes even at 9-4)
    10. Washington (Rose, P12 champ replacement)
    ACC winner (Orange)
    Group of 5 highest ranked

    We get the "reverse 2016" where USC makes the playoff and we get a cushy Rose Bowl matchup with Penn State. (I would love to find a way for USC to be ranked #4 in this and send them to Atlanta to play Georgia, but don't really see how tOSU would be ranked ahead of USC at this point)

    TLDR go Trojans

    I actually think this is pretty likely. Would love a shot at Penn State.
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  • DerekJohnson
    DerekJohnson Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 68,535 Founders Club
    LoneStarDawg said:

    If it’s the rose, Every HCH member at the game needs to be wearing a Ruperake Fuavai jersey

    and grubby sweatpants
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  • PurpleBaze
    PurpleBaze Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 30,333 Founders Club
    DerekJohnson said:

    LoneStarDawg said:

    If it’s the rose, Every HCH member at the game needs to be wearing a Ruperake Fuavai jersey

    and grubby sweatpants
    *Grubb sweatpants
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