Mortgage activity continues to drop as rates reach highest levels since 2006
Comments
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It's hilarious to read the doom and gloom over 6.5% rates. Prices are correcting in some instances, but there's still a fundamental shortage of housing supply. I'm hearing competition among buyers is going to start up again if prices drop another 5-10%. They will soon balance out with the higher rates.
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Not sure there’s gonna be a lot of desire from sellers to trade their 2.4% mortgage for a 6.5% one.BleachedAnusDawg said:It's hilarious to read the doom and gloom over 6.5% rates. Prices are correcting in some instances, but there's still a fundamental shortage of housing supply. I'm hearing competition among buyers is going to start up again if prices drop another 5-10%. They will soon balance out with the higher rates.
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I'm sure it will be fine
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Maybe, or they could do what I'm planning which is roll some equity over to a new home, refi when rates tick down some, and keep the cheap mortgage as a rental. There are also other options outside of the traditional 30 year mortgage.Bob_C said:
Not sure there’s gonna be a lot of desire from sellers to trade their 2.4% mortgage for a 6.5% one.BleachedAnusDawg said:It's hilarious to read the doom and gloom over 6.5% rates. Prices are correcting in some instances, but there's still a fundamental shortage of housing supply. I'm hearing competition among buyers is going to start up again if prices drop another 5-10%. They will soon balance out with the higher rates.
Buyers aren't going to sit on the sideline forever. Prices come down as they are and it negates the rate hike. -
I keep hearing this from my @MortgageDwags but I'm not buying it - philosophicly. The Fed ain't slowing down hiking rates at the window.BleachedAnusDawg said:
Maybe, or they could do what I'm planning which is roll some equity over to a new home, refi when rates tick down some, and keep the cheap mortgage as a rental. There are also other options outside of the traditional 30 year mortgage.Bob_C said:
Not sure there’s gonna be a lot of desire from sellers to trade their 2.4% mortgage for a 6.5% one.BleachedAnusDawg said:It's hilarious to read the doom and gloom over 6.5% rates. Prices are correcting in some instances, but there's still a fundamental shortage of housing supply. I'm hearing competition among buyers is going to start up again if prices drop another 5-10%. They will soon balance out with the higher rates.
Buyers aren't going to sit on the sideline forever. Prices come down as they are and it negates the rate hike.
*Yes, I know the Fed and mortgage rates aren't technically linked, but still...
I would love to hear @El_K 's thoughts on the matter.
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Maybe a (further) recession slows inflation without forever rate hikes. They'll have to drop rates again if that happens. All of my @mortgagedwags tell me rates will tick down next year, but they're also in the business of selling financing, so...pawz said:
I keep hearing this from my @MortgageDwags but I'm not buying it - philosophicly. The Fed ain't slowing down hiking rates at the window.BleachedAnusDawg said:
Maybe, or they could do what I'm planning which is roll some equity over to a new home, refi when rates tick down some, and keep the cheap mortgage as a rental. There are also other options outside of the traditional 30 year mortgage.Bob_C said:
Not sure there’s gonna be a lot of desire from sellers to trade their 2.4% mortgage for a 6.5% one.BleachedAnusDawg said:It's hilarious to read the doom and gloom over 6.5% rates. Prices are correcting in some instances, but there's still a fundamental shortage of housing supply. I'm hearing competition among buyers is going to start up again if prices drop another 5-10%. They will soon balance out with the higher rates.
Buyers aren't going to sit on the sideline forever. Prices come down as they are and it negates the rate hike.
*Yes, I know the Fed and mortgage rates aren't technically linked, but still...
I would love to hear @El_K 's thoughts on the matter. -
Exactly. All of this.BleachedAnusDawg said:
Maybe a (further) recession slows inflation without forever rate hikes. They'll have to drop rates again if that happens. All of my @mortgagedwags tell me rates will tick down next year, but they're also in the business of selling financing, so...pawz said:
I keep hearing this from my @MortgageDwags but I'm not buying it - philosophicly. The Fed ain't slowing down hiking rates at the window.BleachedAnusDawg said:
Maybe, or they could do what I'm planning which is roll some equity over to a new home, refi when rates tick down some, and keep the cheap mortgage as a rental. There are also other options outside of the traditional 30 year mortgage.Bob_C said:
Not sure there’s gonna be a lot of desire from sellers to trade their 2.4% mortgage for a 6.5% one.BleachedAnusDawg said:It's hilarious to read the doom and gloom over 6.5% rates. Prices are correcting in some instances, but there's still a fundamental shortage of housing supply. I'm hearing competition among buyers is going to start up again if prices drop another 5-10%. They will soon balance out with the higher rates.
Buyers aren't going to sit on the sideline forever. Prices come down as they are and it negates the rate hike.
*Yes, I know the Fed and mortgage rates aren't technically linked, but still...
I would love to hear @El_K 's thoughts on the matter.
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You mean to say when a payment doubles on a listed house within 6 months, there are less qualified buyers???
Weird. -
Watch Meet Kevin on YouTube. He’s dialed in on the real estate markets. Believe it or not, we have the highest supply of homes since early 2020. The problem is affordability. Small bumps in interest rates are a big deal. For every 1% increase in interest, you eliminate 10% of a person’s buying power. So if interest rates go from 3.5% to 6.5%, the buyer at 6.5% loses close to 30% of their buying power they had a 3.5%. That changes their budget from say a $600k house to around $420k-$450k.BleachedAnusDawg said:It's hilarious to read the doom and gloom over 6.5% rates. Prices are correcting in some instances, but there's still a fundamental shortage of housing supply. I'm hearing competition among buyers is going to start up again if prices drop another 5-10%. They will soon balance out with the higher rates.
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Yeah, the math I get on rates and all that. The increase in supply is not remarkable at all because the market was at 3 weeks and is now only at 1.5 months. Just got that updated data today. Normal market is 6 months. Nationally, there's a shortage of millions of homes to have a balanced market. Affordability, or lack thereof, is a problem because there's way more demand than supply. The price drops you're seeing now still represent a net growth year over year. Prices are not actually "declining" at the moment.greenblood said:
Watch Meet Kevin on YouTube. He’s dialed in on the real estate markets. Believe it or not, we have the highest supply of homes since early 2020. The problem is affordability. Small bumps in interest rates are a big deal. For every 1% increase in interest, you eliminate 10% of a person’s buying power. So if interest rates go from 3.5% to 6.5%, the buyer at 6.5% loses close to 30% of their buying power they had a 3.5%. That changes their budget from say a $600k house to around $420k-$450k.BleachedAnusDawg said:It's hilarious to read the doom and gloom over 6.5% rates. Prices are correcting in some instances, but there's still a fundamental shortage of housing supply. I'm hearing competition among buyers is going to start up again if prices drop another 5-10%. They will soon balance out with the higher rates.
