Figured out what's going on at the Fed

BleachedAnusDawg said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

The fed is going to continue to raise rates to stop inflation and because "employment numbers are great" in a classic delusion of soft landing.

Then the economy will begin to crash, they will make a surprised pikachu face, and pivot to try to recover.



But it's going to be too late.

Take all the screenshots you need.

Yep. All we need to do is allow domestic energy production and half or more of the inflation problems goes away without jacking rates and forcing people in to poverty.

UW_Doog_Bot said:

creepycoug said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

creepycoug said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

The fed is going to continue to raise rates to stop inflation and because "employment numbers are great" in a classic delusion of soft landing.

Then the economy will begin to crash, they will make a surprised pikachu face, and pivot to try to recover.



But it's going to be too late.

Take all the screenshots you need.

All this because they let one Cuog in the club.

@Salemcoogredux

The good news is that CDs may soon be a viable retirement vehicle.

Going to be a great time to be cash heavy and ready to buy so long as you haven't already been buying into the dip like H.

I tell my friends looking at retirement to look at where they might want a vacation home.

Personally, I'm looking at land where I want to move my family to.

But yes, CD's are going to hit at least 5%+ which should be good enough for retirement if the FED kills inflation.

Is the theory on second home / land based on a price crash? Can't finance a significant balance right now. I wonder how this will affect new builds. I have the land and was close to pulling the trigger on building before this happened. OTOH, builders will be easier to find and negotiate with. The prevailing attitude to date has been, "why should I build your house?" That will change soon.

Been sitting on cash and didn't buy the dip fortunately.

Rates are going to go high and there's going to be a yuge glut of inventory(nationally) with a ton of builds in progress that have no buyers waiting on the other side. That's going to make buyers desperate for liquidity in an environment where credit is tightening. It's also going to crash the speculative land markets quickly(hence I will swoop). Plenty of building commodities are already coming back down to earth as well. In a year or two when builders are hungry I'll probably build.

It will be a regional housing price crash IMO. Places that are easy to build out and have rushed to do so with inter-state migration. Boise, Vegas, Phoenix, Nashville, West Texas etc. The trouble is they thought it would continue that way forever. They always do.

Places like Cali (or Washington) haven't really built since the last crash *overall. Not enough demand, too many restrictions, NIMBY-ism. No one wants to live in LA but the OC market is still relatively hot with sellers still able to take best offer and sell places "as is" etc.

It won't be a good time to finance a yuge new house even if that house is cheap BUT vacation homes are almost always some of the first things to crash in these circumstances and often you don't need financing to purchase or can do so through existing equity.

UW_Doog_Bot said:

creepycoug said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

The fed is going to continue to raise rates to stop inflation and because "employment numbers are great" in a classic delusion of soft landing.

Then the economy will begin to crash, they will make a surprised pikachu face, and pivot to try to recover.



But it's going to be too late.

Take all the screenshots you need.

All this because they let one Cuog in the club.

@Salemcoogredux

The good news is that CDs may soon be a viable retirement vehicle.

Going to be a great time to be cash heavy and ready to buy so long as you haven't already been buying into the dip like H.

I tell my friends looking at retirement to look at where they might want a vacation home.

Personally, I'm looking at land where I want to move my family to.

But yes, CD's are going to hit at least 5%+ which should be good enough for retirement if the FED kills inflation.

UW_Doog_Bot said:

HoustonHusky said:

DerekJohnson said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

The fed is going to continue to raise rates to stop inflation and because "employment numbers are great" in a classic delusion of soft landing.

Then the economy will begin to crash, they will make a surprised pikachu face, and pivot to try to recover.



But it's going to be too late.

Take all the screenshots you need.

Call me Mr Conspiracy. but I am half-wondering if the Fed, under duress from the Biden Admin, is trying to crash the market to damage America even further on behalf of the WEF

The Fed is focused on one thing…inflation. The govt if it was smart would do it’s part by cutting spending and trying to get its accounts in order…instead it’s sending tens of billions a month to “Ukraine” and trying to spend everything it can everywhere else. Not going to end well for anybody.

The Feds original sin in this was the last 10+ years where they kept rates crazy low and enabled the Federal Government to become completely inept at budgeting…

This, plus the FED has been guilty of stock watching too much. Now they are going to over correct since they realize it's a problem.

Never underestimate a reactive FED. It's a tale as old as its existence.

creepycoug said:

WestlinnDuck said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

HoustonHusky said:

DerekJohnson said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

The fed is going to continue to raise rates to stop inflation and because "employment numbers are great" in a classic delusion of soft landing.

Then the economy will begin to crash, they will make a surprised pikachu face, and pivot to try to recover.



But it's going to be too late.

Take all the screenshots you need.

Call me Mr Conspiracy. but I am half-wondering if the Fed, under duress from the Biden Admin, is trying to crash the market to damage America even further on behalf of the WEF

The Fed is focused on one thing…inflation. The govt if it was smart would do it’s part by cutting spending and trying to get its accounts in order…instead it’s sending tens of billions a month to “Ukraine” and trying to spend everything it can everywhere else. Not going to end well for anybody.

The Feds original sin in this was the last 10+ years where they kept rates crazy low and enabled the Federal Government to become completely inept at budgeting…

This, plus the FED has been guilty of stock watching too much. Now they are going to over correct since they realize it's a problem.

Never underestimate a reactive FED. It's a tale as old as its existence.

I'll cut the fed some slack. Our federal and state medical bureaucracies turned a bad flu season into a national catastrophe along with the help from Congress and the blue state governors. You lay off 20+ million Americans and destroy hundreds of thousands of small businesses and the decision was made to have the fed fund the shortfall. That wasn't the feds fault. Then the dementia patient was selected and then we had more trillions in spending that the fed had to fund. Now we are in big trouble with $31 trillion is US debt and rising. You fight inflation by increasing the cost of money. Well, with each 1% increase in borrowing costs, that will cost the US taxpayer an additional $300 billion in additional debt. The 10 year federal treasury rate was just over 1% when the dementia patient too over in January 2021. Now it's at 3.7%.

I can't say I disagree with any one of those points. But wouldn't you say this was coming with the cheap money machine button in the "on" position for the last many years? Those things probably hasten and worsen it. But the propped-up-economy chickens were coming home to roost eventually.

MelloDawg said:

WestlinnDuck said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

HoustonHusky said:

DerekJohnson said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

The fed is going to continue to raise rates to stop inflation and because "employment numbers are great" in a classic delusion of soft landing.

Then the economy will begin to crash, they will make a surprised pikachu face, and pivot to try to recover.



But it's going to be too late.

Take all the screenshots you need.

Call me Mr Conspiracy. but I am half-wondering if the Fed, under duress from the Biden Admin, is trying to crash the market to damage America even further on behalf of the WEF

The Fed is focused on one thing…inflation. The govt if it was smart would do it’s part by cutting spending and trying to get its accounts in order…instead it’s sending tens of billions a month to “Ukraine” and trying to spend everything it can everywhere else. Not going to end well for anybody.

The Feds original sin in this was the last 10+ years where they kept rates crazy low and enabled the Federal Government to become completely inept at budgeting…

This, plus the FED has been guilty of stock watching too much. Now they are going to over correct since they realize it's a problem.

Never underestimate a reactive FED. It's a tale as old as its existence.

I'll cut the fed some slack. Our federal and state medical bureaucracies turned a bad flu season into a national catastrophe along with the help from Congress and the blue state governors. You lay off 20+ million Americans and destroy hundreds of thousands of small businesses and the decision was made to have the fed fund the shortfall. That wasn't the feds fault. Then the dementia patient was selected and then we had more trillions in spending that the fed had to fund. Now we are in big trouble with $31 trillion is US debt and rising. You fight inflation by increasing the cost of money. Well, with each 1% increase in borrowing costs, that will cost the US taxpayer an additional $300 billion in additional debt. The 10 year federal treasury rate was just over 1% when the dementia patient too over in January 2021. Now it's at 3.7%.

Ok.