Are We in the Early Stages of Baseman's Pull-Back?

creepycoug said:

Market rallying today. Maybe premature.

I'll leave it to @DawgsCanDance , our resident Mensa on market data and patterns to sort this out. He's the guy who has the historical perspective and can translate timing with micro trends and turn it into a reasonable macro picture for those of us with Speed Limit IQs (credit to @HoustonHusky with that beauty, that is going into the rotation).

Creep

I will comment later, doing a webinar later today on market rotation characteristics of the current cycle so accumulating and formatting material now....

So yah; so many moving parts right now... to be brief, my view is that the market players have fallen in love with the idea of theme investing since the beginning of 2020 before the market crash

As 2020 opened, tech was hot as well as a lot of breadth in the market

Then we saw the COVID crash and the new theme was throw your hands in the air and run for the hills

Next we saw the fed and central banks intervene and the new theme was believe in the power of the fed

Next it was everyone was stuck at home so buy biotech, and the technology, entertainment food booze and ammunition that you need to hang out at home

Then after the first move, investors thought about what else might move in the earlier phases of recovery

Then investors started buying into the reopening concept of the new economic order

Then investors jumped into energy as oil finally started to make a move, and jumped into second stage countries like Brazil, India, Mexico and Australia as their currencies started to surge...

Meanwhile tech continued to surge and Tesla moved up 1200 percent in 15 months

On 2/15/21 the tech market broke down and since then the market has looked for new leadership

The market now lacks a new theme to believe in; the second wave of COVID is shutting down lots of locations around the world, China, the Soviet Union and other international providers have admitted their vacination is a bust with 50 percent efficacy, interest rates are rising with long treasuries down 12 percent recently, Biden is proposing profound changes to taxation and people are now wondering how long the protection from vaccinations will be good for while lots of folks are not even going to be vaccinated, and substantial parts of the world have less than 10 percent of the population vaccinated if you even believe in that

virus mutation is probably the next theme

The market now lacks the opportunity theme that they crave

FireCohen said:

We all know baseman’s pull out game is not strong. Lol

Ummm... if we’re talking poor pull out came I’m probably the winner here.