Are We in the Early Stages of Baseman's Pull-Back?
Investors dumped equities at an impressive clip last week, with the negative fund flows suggesting the recent drop in equities could continue in the near-term, according to an analysis from Bank of America.
"Last week marked the fifth biggest weekly net sales (-$5.2B) by clients in history (since 2008) and the largest since November," Bank of America equity strategist Savita Subramanian wrote in a note Tuesday. "Market weakness could continue near-term. In the prior times weekly flows were this (or more) negative, the subsequent week's returns were -1% on avg/median ... with negative returns 75% of the time."
By type of investor, Bank of America also noted that retail clients were the only net buyers of equities last week, while institutional and hedge fund clients sold.
Do you want to be trading against the Hedge Fund current? Maybe @oregonblitzkrieg can let us know what's really going on.
Comments
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30% cash after exiting my Travelers and VNQ positions this morning in IRAs.
The knock out earnings by the banks followed by the fade trade last week suggests trouble ahead.
Time to pump the brakes when everybody is talking about the difference between Cryptos and $43B Palantir and 2000. Keeping my 10 shares of Coinbase. Glad I went small
Hold on to your good companies in your taxable accounts. Have dry powder. -
I'm sitting on mine, but will go all in on a sharp decline. College tuitions are behind me, 2 kids employed, one in grad school on the school's nickel, so cash squeeze is less of a risk for me going forward (knock on wood).Baseman said:30% cash after exiting my Travelers and VNQ positions this morning in IRAs.
The knock out earnings by the banks followed by the fade trade last week suggests trouble ahead.
Time to pump the brakes when everybody is talking about the difference between Cryptos and $43B Palantir and 2000. Keeping my 10 shares of Coinbase. Glad I went small
Hold on to your good companies in your taxable accounts. Have dry powder.
I just don't want to be the chucklehead who dumps in today only to watch it take a nose dive that takes four years to recover from ... then again, I don't want to be the guy on the sideline watching this bull continue his run.
I'm going conservative ... unless I can get in on Doogcoin. That's another matter altogether. -
Put some cash in today. Not a ton, but I almost can't resist when the phone app is solid red for everything I monitor.
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Buying the dip is tempting, but be careful of catching a falling knife. Best to phase in rather than going in all at once. I'd also look to buy at a golden cross (i.e., 50 SMA crosses 200 SMA). It'll signal a potential rally and help prevent you from going red immediately and panic selling into a loss.HHusky said:Put some cash in today. Not a ton, but I almost can't resist when the phone app is solid red for everything I monitor.
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Drip it in 5% at a timeHHusky said:Put some cash in today. Not a ton, but I almost can't resist when the phone app is solid red for everything I monitor.
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I believe so. Price action of banks since reporting has been Aful.
Did average down with Viac and Disca, but sitting tight to see what happens.
This market last 6-8 months has been bi-polar. Either the reopening trade is working and those stocks go higher why the Nasdaq underperforms, or the opposite happens.
Today was a day where everything except pharmaceuticals was thrown out. -
Market rallying today. Maybe premature.
I'll leave it to @DawgsCanDance , our resident Mensa on market data and patterns to sort this out. He's the guy who has the historical perspective and can translate timing with micro trends and turn it into a reasonable macro picture for those of us with Speed Limit IQs (credit to @HoustonHusky with that beauty, that is going into the rotation).
Creep -
So the Dow is at 34,000 plus or minus today. It boggles the mind
Just did a quick google and the Dow on Dec 31 1999 was 11,497
Going back to 26K would be a big haircut
Dropping to 20K would be a panic unseen since the 30's
The 1989 crash came with a market at a "record high" of 2,791. It dropped 190 and is still recalled to this day.
No point really. -
Well, one point: the basic predicate for a crash is a red-hot market.RaceBannon said:So the Dow is at 34,000 plus or minus today. It boggles the mind
Just did a quick google and the Dow on Dec 31 1999 was 11,497
Going back to 26K would be a big haircut
Dropping to 20K would be a panic unseen since the 30's
The 1989 crash came with a market at a "record high" of 2,791. It dropped 190 and is still recalled to this day.
No point really. -
He's always been a pussy so prob
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I will comment later, doing a webinar later today on market rotation characteristics of the current cycle so accumulating and formatting material now....creepycoug said:Market rallying today. Maybe premature.
I'll leave it to @DawgsCanDance , our resident Mensa on market data and patterns to sort this out. He's the guy who has the historical perspective and can translate timing with micro trends and turn it into a reasonable macro picture for those of us with Speed Limit IQs (credit to @HoustonHusky with that beauty, that is going into the rotation).
Creep -
Okay. inquiring minds want to know.DawgsCanDance said:
I will comment later, doing a webinar later today on market rotation characteristics of the current cycle so accumulating and formatting material now....creepycoug said:Market rallying today. Maybe premature.
I'll leave it to @DawgsCanDance , our resident Mensa on market data and patterns to sort this out. He's the guy who has the historical perspective and can translate timing with micro trends and turn it into a reasonable macro picture for those of us with Speed Limit IQs (credit to @HoustonHusky with that beauty, that is going into the rotation).
Creep -
So yah; so many moving parts right now... to be brief, my view is that the market players have fallen in love with the idea of theme investing since the beginning of 2020 before the market crash
As 2020 opened, tech was hot as well as a lot of breadth in the market
Then we saw the COVID crash and the new theme was throw your hands in the air and run for the hills
Next we saw the fed and central banks intervene and the new theme was believe in the power of the fed
Next it was everyone was stuck at home so buy biotech, and the technology, entertainment food booze and ammunition that you need to hang out at home
Then after the first move, investors thought about what else might move in the earlier phases of recovery
Then investors started buying into the reopening concept of the new economic order
Then investors jumped into energy as oil finally started to make a move, and jumped into second stage countries like Brazil, India, Mexico and Australia as their currencies started to surge...
Meanwhile tech continued to surge and Tesla moved up 1200 percent in 15 months
On 2/15/21 the tech market broke down and since then the market has looked for new leadership
The market now lacks a new theme to believe in; the second wave of COVID is shutting down lots of locations around the world, China, the Soviet Union and other international providers have admitted their vacination is a bust with 50 percent efficacy, interest rates are rising with long treasuries down 12 percent recently, Biden is proposing profound changes to taxation and people are now wondering how long the protection from vaccinations will be good for while lots of folks are not even going to be vaccinated, and substantial parts of the world have less than 10 percent of the population vaccinated if you even believe in that
virus mutation is probably the next theme
The market now lacks the opportunity theme that they crave -
meanwhile the market is trading at all time highs versus earnings, revenue, cash flow, net income and debt Levels and is frankly counting on the presumed good news of the pending restoration of normalized inventory levels at higher pricing to justify the short term valuation during highly challenging economic disruption times
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We all know baseman’s pull out game is not strong. Lol
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What should I do in the sock drawer? Transfer some to the underoos section?Baseman said:30% cash after exiting my Travelers and VNQ positions this morning in IRAs.
The knock out earnings by the banks followed by the fade trade last week suggests trouble ahead.
Time to pump the brakes when everybody is talking about the difference between Cryptos and $43B Palantir and 2000. Keeping my 10 shares of Coinbase. Glad I went small
Hold on to your good companies in your taxable accounts. Have dry powder. -
I switched from white no show socks to black.Swaye said:
What should I do in the sock drawer? Transfer some to the underoos section?Baseman said:30% cash after exiting my Travelers and VNQ positions this morning in IRAs.
The knock out earnings by the banks followed by the fade trade last week suggests trouble ahead.
Time to pump the brakes when everybody is talking about the difference between Cryptos and $43B Palantir and 2000. Keeping my 10 shares of Coinbase. Glad I went small
Hold on to your good companies in your taxable accounts. Have dry powder. -
Ummm... if we’re talking poor pull out came I’m probably the winner here.FireCohen said:We all know baseman’s pull out game is not strong. Lol
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So kick ass earnings reports and the market pulls back.
The stock market is not only detached from the economy at large. It’s detached from reality. It seems to operate completely of its own internally-derived forces.
It’s not even black jack. It’s the roulette wheel. -
News reports this morning are that the US will not get to herd immunity because the virus mutates too fast. Gee, no kidding.DawgsCanDance said:So yah; so many moving parts right now... to be brief, my view is that the market players have fallen in love with the idea of theme investing since the beginning of 2020 before the market crash
As 2020 opened, tech was hot as well as a lot of breadth in the market
Then we saw the COVID crash and the new theme was throw your hands in the air and run for the hills
Next we saw the fed and central banks intervene and the new theme was believe in the power of the fed
Next it was everyone was stuck at home so buy biotech, and the technology, entertainment food booze and ammunition that you need to hang out at home
Then after the first move, investors thought about what else might move in the earlier phases of recovery
Then investors started buying into the reopening concept of the new economic order
Then investors jumped into energy as oil finally started to make a move, and jumped into second stage countries like Brazil, India, Mexico and Australia as their currencies started to surge...
Meanwhile tech continued to surge and Tesla moved up 1200 percent in 15 months
On 2/15/21 the tech market broke down and since then the market has looked for new leadership
The market now lacks a new theme to believe in; the second wave of COVID is shutting down lots of locations around the world, China, the Soviet Union and other international providers have admitted their vacination is a bust with 50 percent efficacy, interest rates are rising with long treasuries down 12 percent recently, Biden is proposing profound changes to taxation and people are now wondering how long the protection from vaccinations will be good for while lots of folks are not even going to be vaccinated, and substantial parts of the world have less than 10 percent of the population vaccinated if you even believe in that
virus mutation is probably the next theme
The market now lacks the opportunity theme that they crave
If this drags out another 1-2 years people will have already spent their saved vacation money/Biden funny money and everyone will be broke, suffering the effects of 10% inflation, sitting around asking what to do now that the gazebos and pools are all built, etc. Booze and weed seems like the strong long-term play. -
It won't happen. At some point literally everyone will say 'fuck it' and move on. It has to happen. The national and global economy don't work like this even though it's good for a few companies.BleachedAnusDawg said:
News reports this morning are that the US will not get to herd immunity because the virus mutates too fast. Gee, no kidding.DawgsCanDance said:So yah; so many moving parts right now... to be brief, my view is that the market players have fallen in love with the idea of theme investing since the beginning of 2020 before the market crash
As 2020 opened, tech was hot as well as a lot of breadth in the market
Then we saw the COVID crash and the new theme was throw your hands in the air and run for the hills
Next we saw the fed and central banks intervene and the new theme was believe in the power of the fed
Next it was everyone was stuck at home so buy biotech, and the technology, entertainment food booze and ammunition that you need to hang out at home
Then after the first move, investors thought about what else might move in the earlier phases of recovery
Then investors started buying into the reopening concept of the new economic order
Then investors jumped into energy as oil finally started to make a move, and jumped into second stage countries like Brazil, India, Mexico and Australia as their currencies started to surge...
Meanwhile tech continued to surge and Tesla moved up 1200 percent in 15 months
On 2/15/21 the tech market broke down and since then the market has looked for new leadership
The market now lacks a new theme to believe in; the second wave of COVID is shutting down lots of locations around the world, China, the Soviet Union and other international providers have admitted their vacination is a bust with 50 percent efficacy, interest rates are rising with long treasuries down 12 percent recently, Biden is proposing profound changes to taxation and people are now wondering how long the protection from vaccinations will be good for while lots of folks are not even going to be vaccinated, and substantial parts of the world have less than 10 percent of the population vaccinated if you even believe in that
virus mutation is probably the next theme
The market now lacks the opportunity theme that they crave
If this drags out another 1-2 years people will have already spent their saved vacation money/Biden funny money and everyone will be broke, suffering the effects of 10% inflation, sitting around asking what to do now that the gazebos and pools are all built, etc. Booze and weed seems like the strong long-term play. -
I wonder if an assisted suicide business would be a strong play right now?
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Repeat business is weak.dirtysouwfdawg said:I wonder if an assisted suicide business would be a strong play right now?
