I'm on the sidelines

Baseman said:

creepycoug said:

Been taking a long hard look at VYM. Dipped a little today thus far but still over $102 and not far off its 52 wk high of 102.69. Yield is just under 3% at these prices .... yeah a yield play is for the long-term, but I have a block of cash right now and I'm thinking of waiting until the entry point is north of 3.5% for yield. I may be waiting for Godot ... open to being talked out of it.

It's a good tip @Baseman ... I like the fund. I'd like to have 2 hundred or so in it, forget I own it and let it ride with reinvested dividends until retirement in about 8 years. Call it my scared money and growth the rest.

Thoughts?

Talk % of your portfolio instead of $...When do you plan on retiring?

Baseman said:

creepycoug said:

Baseman said:

creepycoug said:

Been taking a long hard look at VYM. Dipped a little today thus far but still over $102 and not far off its 52 wk high of 102.69. Yield is just under 3% at these prices .... yeah a yield play is for the long-term, but I have a block of cash right now and I'm thinking of waiting until the entry point is north of 3.5% for yield. I may be waiting for Godot ... open to being talked out of it.

It's a good tip @Baseman ... I like the fund. I'd like to have 2 hundred or so in it, forget I own it and let it ride with reinvested dividends until retirement in about 8 years. Call it my scared money and growth the rest.

Thoughts?

Talk % of your portfolio instead of $...When do you plan on retiring?

Based on what I have right now, say $250k in VYM would be a little over 6% of the portfolio. When I retire, in about 8 years, there will be some lump sum and other one time payments that will drive whatever the % is at that time lower.

Note, that the holdings in VYM would overlap some yield stocks I own outright. I might sell those now (price is high/dividends have flattened so yield relative to sell opportunity is down on those) and plow that into more growth. 401-K is heavy in 500 and extended market with some small international.

I'm not a registered advisor but you might go heavier on VYM. Average in over the next six months to a year. Set the dividends on auto reinvest.

If i'm you and eight years out, I want a fair amount in QQQ (25-30%).

Apple Amazon Google and Facebook are not your daddies 2000 QQQ. They'll continue growing, generate massive amounts of free cash flow and are poised to buyback stock on any pullback.

I'm a Warren Buffet disciple. I don't buy stocks, I buy companies and my preferred holding period is forever. I view market pullbacks like the wife and kids see Nordstrom Half-Yearly sale.

Like Buffet, I wouldn't touch bonds with a ten foot pole. Corporates or Treasuries. Maybe a small position (5% of portfolio max) in a closed end leveraged muni-fund in your taxable accounts.

In your situation, each year I would reallocate a higher percentage to VYM. 60% of my portfolio is in individual stocks. Peter Lynch described too much diversification as deworseification.

We could see another major crisis -- ala 2008-2009 -$ where across the board dividends were cut 40%. You'll want to have some cash (10%) and avoid selling your positions.

Including dividends you should conservatively expect your current portfolio to triple every ten years. You're in good shape.

Baseman said:

creepycoug said:

Baseman said:

creepycoug said:

Baseman said:

creepycoug said:

Been taking a long hard look at VYM. Dipped a little today thus far but still over $102 and not far off its 52 wk high of 102.69. Yield is just under 3% at these prices .... yeah a yield play is for the long-term, but I have a block of cash right now and I'm thinking of waiting until the entry point is north of 3.5% for yield. I may be waiting for Godot ... open to being talked out of it.

It's a good tip @Baseman ... I like the fund. I'd like to have 2 hundred or so in it, forget I own it and let it ride with reinvested dividends until retirement in about 8 years. Call it my scared money and growth the rest.

Thoughts?

Talk % of your portfolio instead of $...When do you plan on retiring?

Based on what I have right now, say $250k in VYM would be a little over 6% of the portfolio. When I retire, in about 8 years, there will be some lump sum and other one time payments that will drive whatever the % is at that time lower.

Note, that the holdings in VYM would overlap some yield stocks I own outright. I might sell those now (price is high/dividends have flattened so yield relative to sell opportunity is down on those) and plow that into more growth. 401-K is heavy in 500 and extended market with some small international.

I'm not a registered advisor but you might go heavier on VYM. Average in over the next six months to a year. Set the dividends on auto reinvest.

If i'm you and eight years out, I want a fair amount in QQQ (25-30%).

Apple Amazon Google and Facebook are not your daddies 2000 QQQ. They'll continue growing, generate massive amounts of free cash flow and are poised to buyback stock on any pullback.

I'm a Warren Buffet disciple. I don't buy stocks, I buy companies and my preferred holding period is forever. I view market pullbacks like the wife and kids see Nordstrom Half-Yearly sale.

Like Buffet, I wouldn't touch bonds with a ten foot pole. Corporates or Treasuries. Maybe a small position (5% of portfolio max) in a closed end leveraged muni-fund in your taxable accounts.

In your situation, each year I would reallocate a higher percentage to VYM. 60% of my portfolio is in individual stocks. Peter Lynch described too much diversification as deworseification.

We could see another major crisis -- ala 2008-2009 -$ where across the board dividends were cut 40%. You'll want to have some cash (10%) and avoid selling your positions.

Including dividends you should conservatively expect your current portfolio to triple every ten years. You're in good shape.

All good thoughts. One thing to consider though ... Buffet and Munger are value guys ... would they jump in to even good companies for the good reasons you give in this arguably inflated market? Or would they wait to pick their spots?

Buffets philosophy is be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

It's been several years since Berkshire acquired 100% ownership of another company.

So I think the answer to your question is, no. Berkshire is not a net buyer at the moment.

Recently he trimmed 10% of Berkshires Apple holdings because the value their value approached $130 billion.

The best thing Buffet did last year was buying back Berkshire stock which he believes is a good buy if the price/book value is 1.3, or less. They also acquired pharmaceuticals and biotechs. High dividend yields, better returns than bonds and timely values in the current world

Berkshire's annual reports make good reading. Not only have I learned a lot, Buffet's commentary historically is spot on. https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/reports.html

Berkshire makes up 10% of my portfolio and I look forward to their quarterly earnings to see what "our company" bought and sold. Buffett and Munger treat their shareholders like partners and they have skin in the game.

Buffett only pays himself $250,000 a year with little to no stock options.