Who uses options ?
Comments
-
Thanks, you answered my questions even if I didn't ask them properly.Sources said:
Yes, theta is generally referred to as the "decay" of an option, but it's not linear. It's non-linear in its decay because the probability of the option being "in the money" at expiry is also non-linear. You can imagine that if I have a $10 call and the price of the stock is $8, I'm much better off if I have more time for that stock to rise beyond $10. Here's a generic example that would highlight a perfectly theoretical decay:EwaDawg said:
Thanks. For the discussion on theta - is that primarily a function of time remaining before the option expires and is therefore fairly linear? I guess my question more precisely is can a portion of the option's price movement be linear?Sources said:
There are a lot more factors than that. Options don't work linearly - prices are dictated by something called "greeks", the most significant of which are (1) delta, or the amount the option price moves relative to the underlying stock, and (2) theta, which is the decay rate of the option. There are other greeks that dictate how delta and theta change as price fluctuates, etc. In the example you mentioned, the fact that XOM went up will result in somewhat corresponding movement in the option (as dictated by greeks). The option will increase more significantly (in terms of %) than the stock, but not by the same amount. The price will also be dictated by the remaining term of the option, volatility of XOM, among other things.godawgst said:In XOM example when it was at 35 and the option for it was 6.35 or whatever it was, XOM hit 56 last week for a $21.00 gain. Then does that same option for 6.35 also go up 21 so you could have sold it for 27.35 which is a 4 bagger?
You didn't mention beta specifically but you mentioned that the volatility of stock price effects the price of the option. Is the term beta relevant to your post or do I need to watch the tutorial again?
Sorry for the low level questions. I understand the reward is getting the pupil to a significantly higher level of understanding.:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc():format(webp)/dotdash_Final_Time_Decay_Apr_2020-01-a2824c7ac5ad47ed9082ea52f9ace031.jpg)
Now, that isn't to say that movement of the price can't be linear as the price of the stock moves, but it would be a coincidence rather than the expectation.
Beta weighting is a measure of a stock's volatility against the rest of the market. That's really of less concern with respect to the option because the option cares only about the underlying stock itself. Beta is useful in measuring your portfolio bias but less so in an isolated case for one asset type. The volatility that is important to options is implied volatility as that measures the likelihood of a move of an underlying asset for a certain amount over a particular amount of time (each option has it's own quantity of IV)
Decay seemed likely linear to me if you take away related volatility of the underlying stock. But, surprise, its more curved which makes sense.
And, yes, I see now the volatility of the stocks price were not necessarily being referred to as in relation to the rest of the market. So reference to beta in your last sentence could/would be innacurate.
Thanks.
-
Disclaimer: you're better off talking to my wife who is the real finance guru of the house and used BS/Binomial/MC in banking.PurpleThrobber said:
Well, fuck. Gonna need a new Excel workbook.Sources said:
There are a lot more factors than that. Options don't work linearly - prices are dictated by something called "greeks", the most significant of which are (1) delta, or the amount the option price moves relative to the underlying stock, and (2) theta, which is the decay rate of the option. There are other greeks that dictate how delta and theta change as price fluctuates, etc. In the example you mentioned, the fact that XOM went up will result in somewhat corresponding movement in the option (as dictated by greeks). The option will increase more significantly (in terms of %) than the stock, but not by the same amount. The price will also be dictated by the remaining term of the option, volatility of XOM, among other things.godawgst said:In XOM example when it was at 35 and the option for it was 6.35 or whatever it was, XOM hit 56 last week for a $21.00 gain. Then does that same option for 6.35 also go up 21 so you could have sold it for 27.35 which is a 4 bagger?
I'm kinda joking, kinda not - you want to talk Black Scholes or Binomial calculation of derivative instruments? I'm more of a BS guy.
That being said, my view is that while BS seems to be the more widely accepted approach, binomial gives more flexibility if desired. My understanding is that MC is somewhere in between, not sure if you've had any luck there.
Admittedly, learning / applying this kind of approach has been a matter of diminishing returns for me - too much time in a science I scarcely understand, for marginal benefit. Because market tomfoolery is more of a side hustle / hobby, I elect to follow a simpler approach where it's easier to backtest / implement more macro approaches (e.g., how to play gap ups/downs, inside days, etc.). As a former engineer, the math and probabilistic nature of all of this is very interesting to me, but as a lawyer, I simply don't have the time to do it justice. If you have particular resources that are worth diving into, let me know. I'm happy to read up when I can and discuss.
Additional thought: I suppose I could use the modeling approach to optimize when and how I sell covered calls, but I tend to have them so far out of the money I'm not sure it would make a difference. Let me know if you think there's value here. -
That is why I plan to learn to trade the options in my wife's retirement account. Well, at least until I understand them better.creepycoug said:
Hence my original response to Ewa. I know what they are; I don't know how to execute them with my own money, and I don't want to learn the hard way with options.USMChawk said:It’s an interesting discussion but it seems too easy to lose all your money while trying to figure it out.
And, no, Hawaii is not a community property state.
Actually, at this late in the game I am looking to enhance my trading options (no pun intended but I couldn't spell repertoire) without going crazy on the margin. -
I'm one step removed from @creepycoug - done all sorts of deals with weird provisions and convertibles and preferreds and downrounds, etc - all of which require knowledge of how to value this kind of stuff and derivatives and investor disclosures.Sources said:
Disclaimer: you're better off talking to my wife who is the real finance guru of the house and used BS/Binomial/MC in banking.PurpleThrobber said:
Well, fuck. Gonna need a new Excel workbook.Sources said:
There are a lot more factors than that. Options don't work linearly - prices are dictated by something called "greeks", the most significant of which are (1) delta, or the amount the option price moves relative to the underlying stock, and (2) theta, which is the decay rate of the option. There are other greeks that dictate how delta and theta change as price fluctuates, etc. In the example you mentioned, the fact that XOM went up will result in somewhat corresponding movement in the option (as dictated by greeks). The option will increase more significantly (in terms of %) than the stock, but not by the same amount. The price will also be dictated by the remaining term of the option, volatility of XOM, among other things.godawgst said:In XOM example when it was at 35 and the option for it was 6.35 or whatever it was, XOM hit 56 last week for a $21.00 gain. Then does that same option for 6.35 also go up 21 so you could have sold it for 27.35 which is a 4 bagger?
I'm kinda joking, kinda not - you want to talk Black Scholes or Binomial calculation of derivative instruments? I'm more of a BS guy.
That being said, my view is that while BS seems to be the more widely accepted approach, binomial gives more flexibility if desired. My understanding is that MC is somewhere in between, not sure if you've had any luck there.
Admittedly, learning / applying this kind of approach has been a matter of diminishing returns for me - too much time in a science I scarcely understand, for marginal benefit. Because market tomfoolery is more of a side hustle / hobby, I elect to follow a simpler approach where it's easier to backtest / implement more macro approaches (e.g., how to play gap ups/downs, inside days, etc.). As a former engineer, the math and probabilistic nature of all of this is very interesting to me, but as a lawyer, I simply don't have the time to do it justice. If you have particular resources that are worth diving into, let me know. I'm happy to read up when I can and discuss.
Additional thought: I suppose I could use the modeling approach to optimize when and how I sell covered calls, but I tend to have them so far out of the money I'm not sure it would make a difference. Let me know if you think there's value here.
But damned if I'm writing a check or putting any of my coin at risk into this option stuff. Mrs. Throbber v2.0 only gives me $5 allowance each month and I need to save up for six months to buy some delicious edibles.
And I'm certain there will be budget cuts to pay for her new home makeover/kitchen remodel/Property Bros episode.
FYFMFE


