Observations of a single basement dweller who's dumb enough to hang out here ten times per day:
Comments
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Can we talk about1to392831weretaken said:
Amazing what a mere $700K can get you...creepycoug said:
That thing is bad ass. Holy shit.1to392831weretaken said:
Vertical Machining Center. One exactly like this (same dual vise setup, even) in my case:creepycoug said:Alright I'm just going to fucking ask: what is a VMC and what do you do with it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3IkcDwpEyY
I can only afford old, small(ish), and shitty (plus I have to fit it under my shop door that I should have built taller), but the better, newer, more expensive of these machines can turn a shoebox-sized block of aluminum or steel into whatever you want in about an hour. I plan to make motorcycle parts at first then whatever comes up after that.
Here's a way newer, WAY more expensive and awesome 5-axis VMC doing its thing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQP1uA_N7Fohookersescorts and blow on the high class finance board?
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2006 I did the same with the house; with a 9 month old we were looking to flip locations in prep for school in a couple of years, and everything was selling with these multiple bidding wars. I said to Mrs. whlinder "gawd why don't we sell our place and rent until this collapses?" But a house purchase is not a financial decision to a new mother, it is an emotional one... sigh. Luckily moved again 7 years later where we actually were able to acquire a massively under-valued house with no competition.
Super fascinating insights with the rigging industry. What I am not sure about now compared to 2008 is whether the whole thing is about to crash, or if we're fully into the "K Recovery" scenario, where certain sectors do great and others get fucked, and those that are doing fine are virtually independent of those getting fucked.
There are going to be a lot of jobs that just don't come back; the middle class always loses when major shocks are introduced to the system. Particularly with technological change. -
There is a significant correction coming. It won't be like the most recent recession. This one will be very compartmentalized.
Some real estate will go to shit while others will be nearly untouched. Same with manufacturing and service etc.
All this is due to the downturns being created by artifical means (covid). Its not market forces. Its market forces being manipulated by forces outside the market.
Study history. It will be your next best friend.
On the other hand, fuck the lot of you. I spent the day laying on the sand watching beach volleyball.
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You had better been wearing a maskBlu82 said:There is a significant correction coming. It won't be like the most recent recession. This one will be very compartmentalized.
Some real estate will go to shit while others will be nearly untouched. Same with manufacturing and service etc.
All this is due to the downturns being created by artifical means (covid). Its not market forces. Its market forces being manipulated by forces outside the market.
Study history. It will be your next best friend.
On the other hand, fuck the lot of you. I spent the day laying on the sand watching beach volleyball. -
No mask.
Florida. -
Would chin if we weren't so fucked.1to392831weretaken said:Pumpydoubleshitpost:
To answer your question about what jobs I'm seeing disappearing, that's what's most disturbing about my search. It's true that just about every week I see a restaurant, brewery (Skagit River Brewing, recently, hit close to home, as that's a place I've visited many tims), or restaurant supply company offered up on the auction block (fun fact: did you know there's such thing as a giant $6000 stand mixer?).
It's not just restaurants and bars, though. What's disturbing about my observations from the last few months and in speaking with riggers is that it points to impending major job loss in more high-paying industrial sectors. Most of the shops I'm seeing closing are in aerospace. Several sawmills, large plywood manufacturers, etc. are going under, too.
The damning part--the part that really disturbed me--was hearing from the rigger how severely his business has turned. He's used to filling new shops with new equipment or bringing new equipment to expanding shops. Now, it's working in reverse: Companies are exploding, and he's driving the pieces around to vultures like me. Riggers don't move refrigerators; they move big, expensive machinery. The kind of big, expensive machinery that only decently sized manufacturing facilities can afford to own and operate. Machinery that requires trained and skilled employees to operate, not just somebody off the street.
Just like with short sellers, somebody always gets rich off the downfall. When it's auction houses and riggers that are getting rich, we should be concerend. It's home shop losers like me who can suddenly afford equipment they never would have before. To me, these are not good signs. I know there's 7% unemployment now, my point is that I don't think we've seen the worst of it. I fear a delayed reaction that we haven't fully seen yet and that will hurt. Maybe things will return to normal soon enough, government intervention will bridge the gap, and these jobs will come back, but... damn. I don't know. It took several years for things to return to "normal" after '08.
Seriously have had nightmares going on 8+ mos (and even more so after the election) from the existential crises for our? future ... I'm not the "god fearing man" type, but I've been praying someone can convince me we? will be fine and just need to ride it out. I just don't see anyway out that doesn't equal extreme pain for the USofA.
Trying to stay away from #tugtalk, but I see this impending existential crisis as inclusive to geopolitical machinations ... -
I legit watched it 3 straight timescreepycoug said:
That thing is bad ass. Holy shit.1to392831weretaken said:
Vertical Machining Center. One exactly like this (same dual vise setup, even) in my case:creepycoug said:Alright I'm just going to fucking ask: what is a VMC and what do you do with it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3IkcDwpEyY
I can only afford old, small(ish), and shitty (plus I have to fit it under my shop door that I should have built taller), but the better, newer, more expensive of these machines can turn a shoebox-sized block of aluminum or steel into whatever you want in about an hour. I plan to make motorcycle parts at first then whatever comes up after that.
Here's a way newer, WAY more expensive and awesome 5-axis VMC doing its thing:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQP1uA_N7Fo -
You have no idea how much machining porn I watch. Mill turn machines are particularly cool:ntxduck said:
I legit watched it 3 straight timescreepycoug said:
That thing is bad ass. Holy shit.1to392831weretaken said:
Vertical Machining Center. One exactly like this (same dual vise setup, even) in my case:creepycoug said:Alright I'm just going to fucking ask: what is a VMC and what do you do with it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3IkcDwpEyY
I can only afford old, small(ish), and shitty (plus I have to fit it under my shop door that I should have built taller), but the better, newer, more expensive of these machines can turn a shoebox-sized block of aluminum or steel into whatever you want in about an hour. I plan to make motorcycle parts at first then whatever comes up after that.
Here's a way newer, WAY more expensive and awesome 5-axis VMC doing its thing:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQP1uA_N7Fo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81UjjSH2iFw
Some of the smaller ones built for speed like the Brother Speedio and Fanuc Robodrill series are fucking amazing, too. Just check out how quickly these things move and change tools:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndVS22ZbqmE
The amount of machining porn on YouTube is endless. -
And what has all this festering done for you?pawz said:
Would chin if we weren't so fucked.1to392831weretaken said:Pumpydoubleshitpost:
To answer your question about what jobs I'm seeing disappearing, that's what's most disturbing about my search. It's true that just about every week I see a restaurant, brewery (Skagit River Brewing, recently, hit close to home, as that's a place I've visited many tims), or restaurant supply company offered up on the auction block (fun fact: did you know there's such thing as a giant $6000 stand mixer?).
It's not just restaurants and bars, though. What's disturbing about my observations from the last few months and in speaking with riggers is that it points to impending major job loss in more high-paying industrial sectors. Most of the shops I'm seeing closing are in aerospace. Several sawmills, large plywood manufacturers, etc. are going under, too.
The damning part--the part that really disturbed me--was hearing from the rigger how severely his business has turned. He's used to filling new shops with new equipment or bringing new equipment to expanding shops. Now, it's working in reverse: Companies are exploding, and he's driving the pieces around to vultures like me. Riggers don't move refrigerators; they move big, expensive machinery. The kind of big, expensive machinery that only decently sized manufacturing facilities can afford to own and operate. Machinery that requires trained and skilled employees to operate, not just somebody off the street.
Just like with short sellers, somebody always gets rich off the downfall. When it's auction houses and riggers that are getting rich, we should be concerend. It's home shop losers like me who can suddenly afford equipment they never would have before. To me, these are not good signs. I know there's 7% unemployment now, my point is that I don't think we've seen the worst of it. I fear a delayed reaction that we haven't fully seen yet and that will hurt. Maybe things will return to normal soon enough, government intervention will bridge the gap, and these jobs will come back, but... damn. I don't know. It took several years for things to return to "normal" after '08.
Seriously have had nightmares going on 8+ mos (and even more so after the election) from the existential crises for our? future ... I'm not the "god fearing man" type, but I've been praying someone can convince me we? will be fine and just need to ride it out. I just don't see anyway out that doesn't equal extreme pain for the USofA.
Trying to stay away from #tugtalk, but I see this impending existential crisis as inclusive to geopolitical machinations ...
Taken about a decade off your lifespan, that's what.
Still haven't missed a meal - still have a job - can still hand over pieces of paper and receive goods and services for them. The entire aerospace industry is on the ropes, as are several other industries that have been ravaged by covid. Seeing the subcontractors that support these industries closing doors isn't all that surprising, and frankly, I don't think it's all that good of indicator of the economy as a whole. Softwood lumber manufacturing is also an industry that's been under attack for decades.
The thing to remember is that someone's loss is another's gain. If you just picked up a machining tool that was previously out of reach, then you're the winner. And you being the winner and Boeing, or one of their subs, being the loser doesn't happen very often. With any luck, your win will become the economy's win and Boeing and their bullshit can fuck right off.
We'll see, I guess. Either way, it will be interesting. -
Great story and analysis 1 to ......
One big Reason housing prices are up is after the 07/08 housing crash, Home builders spent the next 3-4 years building about 25% of the new inventory needed to keep up with demographics.
Your comment on true unemployment and what's coming is so spot on. We have 10 million jobs that are gone and not coming back, and with the new work from home economy, many big businesses are 1/2 months away from having a year's worth of data showing them how much more production they got from their people than by being in the office (25% was number from the head of a hedge fund interview). Banks just came out and said the days of keeping people employed thru covid just b/c are over. What this means is for these people they are going to have to have a Hunger Games Mindset when it comes to their jobs. In the past you could see in the office who was pulling their weight and not, so if crap hit the fan, all you had to do was be better than him/her and you were probably safe.
For the stay at homers, they won't be able to see that, or know who is producing what, so to try and not be the person let go, the only thing they can do is produce more and more which just snowballs as now you can't see what your co-workers/competition is doing.
I weekly go into a store that buys pallets of merchandise (from a auction where you can see the outside of the pallet, but what's inside of it is unknown) and the #1 thing they are getting is coming from restaurant distributors who have cases of product they would sell to restaurants and bars that have went poof. Think 5 gallon containers of mustard, salad dressing, relish, etc.
Point is when this all done, the number of un/under employed is going to be much higher than just the 10 million
