Will SPAC/Cryptocurrency be the top/bubble in retrospect when we look back?

No. Why do you think SPACs and crypto are the markers of a peak bubble?

GreenRiverGatorz said:

No. Why do you think SPACs and crypto are the markers of a peak bubble?

Co-sign on crypto; not as clear on SPACs. But I agree, the "here's money; go buy something with it," isn't exactly a model that appeals to me.

creepycoug said:

HoustonHusky said:

We are in new territory...the Fed never monetized the debt like they are now. Things will eventually “reset”, but I don’t think it’s going to be a reset like previous ones.

Do you think the reset will be when we are finally forced to stop papering over our problems?

If so, what do you think will have value at that point?

Hard assets...real estate, precious metals, ownership in tangible, tradable items, companies, etc. The last thing you want to be holding is cash in a bank account.

It’s cascading out of control, but still think we have a long run before it crashes and resets...and who knows what that will look like. But the govt is unable to not spend $$$ and the Fed has written them a blank check to do so. We are already at the point of no return on interest rates...as the Fed chairman himself said the system will collapse if interest rates rise too much (and by too much he meant over 5% or even less on a 30 year treasury which is still low by historical standards). And these low interest rates just accelerates the unsustainable govt spending.

No clue what the reset looks like...writing off govt debt on the Fed balance sheet along with rewriting the charter of the Fed itself? Not my area of expertise...I’m sure the Fed has been working on a “solution” that puts them in charge more...when they are ready it will start leaking in the press. And given the stupidity of politicians on both sides of the aisle it’s a good bet they will blindly install it.

godawgst said:

GreenRiverGatorz said:

No. Why do you think SPACs and crypto are the markers of a peak bubble?

SPAC's can only make money if they buy small tiny companies and take them public whether there is any business there or not.

The multiple digital currencies all screaming higher and higher w/ no real fundamentals and the chasing of their daily prices (which to me look like the greater fool theory).

Every bubble I have seen at least in my lifetime have looked very similar to what I am seeing above with asset classes.

Not entirely true.

SPACs are traded just like many other securities - can buy just the shares, units (which include the stock and warrants) or just the warrants in a lot of cases. One can 'make money' prior to a deal - there is a market to trade. The BIG money to be made is if/when a deal is totally complete but one can make money on the day-to-day action.

I got in on THCB and THCBU a while back. Not ground floor but definitely prior to the Microvast deal being announced. By posting that, the deal is now destined to derail and I"ll lose all my money.....

https://investorplace.com/2021/02/thcb-stock-tuscan-holdings-shares-surge-on-microvast-spac-merger-news/


I do agree, the cryptos are screaming for a correction. Dogecoin was created as a joke and now it's the off-brand to bitcoin. Was on a call yesterday with a noted contrarian and he is calling bullshit on the fed printing money and the perception of crypto as the wave of the future. He's all in on hard assets as the safe haven.

D

PurpleThrobber said:

godawgst said:

GreenRiverGatorz said:

No. Why do you think SPACs and crypto are the markers of a peak bubble?

SPAC's can only make money if they buy small tiny companies and take them public whether there is any business there or not.

The multiple digital currencies all screaming higher and higher w/ no real fundamentals and the chasing of their daily prices (which to me look like the greater fool theory).

Every bubble I have seen at least in my lifetime have looked very similar to what I am seeing above with asset classes.

Not entirely true.

SPACs are traded just like many other securities - can buy just the shares, units (which include the stock and warrants) or just the warrants in a lot of cases. One can 'make money' prior to a deal - there is a market to trade. The BIG money to be made is if/when a deal is totally complete but one can make money on the day-to-day action.

I got in on THCB and THCBU a while back. Not ground floor but definitely prior to the Microvast deal being announced. By posting that, the deal is now destined to derail and I"ll lose all my money.....

https://investorplace.com/2021/02/thcb-stock-tuscan-holdings-shares-surge-on-microvast-spac-merger-news/


I do agree, the cryptos are screaming for a correction. Dogecoin was created as a joke and now it's the off-brand to bitcoin. Was on a call yesterday with a noted contrarian and he is calling bullshit on the fed printing money and the perception of crypto as the wave of the future. He's all in on hard assets as the safe haven.

The Fed printing money is exactly why Bitcoin is so valuable. It's an improved version of gold, which is why it's been eating gold's share of the store of value market and why gold is down since August despite the extreme monetary policy that should be great for gold's USD price. Most other cryptos are bullshit though.

RaceBannon said:

BuffBuffPass said:

D

PurpleThrobber said:

godawgst said:

GreenRiverGatorz said:

No. Why do you think SPACs and crypto are the markers of a peak bubble?

SPAC's can only make money if they buy small tiny companies and take them public whether there is any business there or not.

The multiple digital currencies all screaming higher and higher w/ no real fundamentals and the chasing of their daily prices (which to me look like the greater fool theory).

Every bubble I have seen at least in my lifetime have looked very similar to what I am seeing above with asset classes.

Not entirely true.

SPACs are traded just like many other securities - can buy just the shares, units (which include the stock and warrants) or just the warrants in a lot of cases. One can 'make money' prior to a deal - there is a market to trade. The BIG money to be made is if/when a deal is totally complete but one can make money on the day-to-day action.

I got in on THCB and THCBU a while back. Not ground floor but definitely prior to the Microvast deal being announced. By posting that, the deal is now destined to derail and I"ll lose all my money.....

https://investorplace.com/2021/02/thcb-stock-tuscan-holdings-shares-surge-on-microvast-spac-merger-news/


I do agree, the cryptos are screaming for a correction. Dogecoin was created as a joke and now it's the off-brand to bitcoin. Was on a call yesterday with a noted contrarian and he is calling bullshit on the fed printing money and the perception of crypto as the wave of the future. He's all in on hard assets as the safe haven.

The Fed printing money is exactly why Bitcoin is so valuable. It's an improved version of gold, which is why it's been eating gold's share of the store of value market and why gold is down since August despite the extreme monetary policy that should be great for gold's USD price. Most other cryptos are bullshit though.

I'll wait to hear from @RuffaloSoldier

@RuffaloSoldier

@PurpleBaze

@Swaye

@YellowSnow

@Malarkey

The key to Gold and Silver is physical delivery.

Not an allocation Certificate “Proving ownership” but actual shiny shit in your grubby little paw. Even SLV changed their prospectus(which tru gold bugs preached was going to happen) when they were having trouble securing physical metal to satisfy the rash of new buyers like @PurpleThrobber

PurpleThrobber said:

BuffBuffPass said:

D

PurpleThrobber said:

godawgst said:

GreenRiverGatorz said:

No. Why do you think SPACs and crypto are the markers of a peak bubble?

SPAC's can only make money if they buy small tiny companies and take them public whether there is any business there or not.

The multiple digital currencies all screaming higher and higher w/ no real fundamentals and the chasing of their daily prices (which to me look like the greater fool theory).

Every bubble I have seen at least in my lifetime have looked very similar to what I am seeing above with asset classes.

Not entirely true.

SPACs are traded just like many other securities - can buy just the shares, units (which include the stock and warrants) or just the warrants in a lot of cases. One can 'make money' prior to a deal - there is a market to trade. The BIG money to be made is if/when a deal is totally complete but one can make money on the day-to-day action.

I got in on THCB and THCBU a while back. Not ground floor but definitely prior to the Microvast deal being announced. By posting that, the deal is now destined to derail and I"ll lose all my money.....

https://investorplace.com/2021/02/thcb-stock-tuscan-holdings-shares-surge-on-microvast-spac-merger-news/


I do agree, the cryptos are screaming for a correction. Dogecoin was created as a joke and now it's the off-brand to bitcoin. Was on a call yesterday with a noted contrarian and he is calling bullshit on the fed printing money and the perception of crypto as the wave of the future. He's all in on hard assets as the safe haven.

The Fed printing money is exactly why Bitcoin is so valuable. It's an improved version of gold, which is why it's been eating gold's share of the store of value market and why gold is down since August despite the extreme monetary policy that should be great for gold's USD price. Most other cryptos are bullshit though.

Yes and no. Bitcoin probably is a better mechanism than gold - but the historic certainty of gold is worth something. Also, from a purely functional standpoint, if the world went to hell in a handbasket, how fungible is crypto?

I think there's a happy medium between the two -one is a historic hedge against inflation/market forces and the other has somewhat speculative features and upside potential.

Gold has been relatively constant the last couple months. I think that's the market magician's playing their bankster games. They held the price of gold down for years with their paper shenanigans - there truly is a massive shortage of physical gold if the reddit bros ever turn their sights on that one. Which is why I think they semi-fucked with silver as a practice run.

I'm in relatively close contact with two renowned gold bugs - one of whom has the technicals wired, the other a noted contrarian who relies on some common sense and being a codger. Both are convinced gold will hit 3,000 and then to the moon until about 10K per oz.

Yep, I absolutely agree that gold's established history is valuable and is why I said Bitcoin is an improved version of gold rather than a better version at this point in time. Gold is better in a number of categories: history (by a lot), fungibility and durability. As time goes on Bitcoin will lessen the history advantage and continue to prove its durability while the code could be updated to improve fungibility, although it's hard to imagine it becoming more fungible than gold. Bitcoin is better at portability (by a lot), scarcity, divisibility and censorship resistance (by a lot). Those categories are all important attributes of a store of value but to what extent each is important depends on the situation.

While it's true that if the world goes to hell in a handbasket that Bitcoin could be interrupted (less likely as we get things like Starlink or other space-internet solutions), it's probably better than gold in most situations. Portability and censorship resistance are really important in those situations.

Long term I definitely agree that there is a happy medium between the two, and I'll hold gold eventually but for now BTC is the play for me until it eats quite a bit more of the store of value market.

BuffBuffPass said:

PurpleThrobber said:

BuffBuffPass said:

D

PurpleThrobber said:

godawgst said:

GreenRiverGatorz said:

No. Why do you think SPACs and crypto are the markers of a peak bubble?

SPAC's can only make money if they buy small tiny companies and take them public whether there is any business there or not.

The multiple digital currencies all screaming higher and higher w/ no real fundamentals and the chasing of their daily prices (which to me look like the greater fool theory).

Every bubble I have seen at least in my lifetime have looked very similar to what I am seeing above with asset classes.

Not entirely true.

SPACs are traded just like many other securities - can buy just the shares, units (which include the stock and warrants) or just the warrants in a lot of cases. One can 'make money' prior to a deal - there is a market to trade. The BIG money to be made is if/when a deal is totally complete but one can make money on the day-to-day action.

I got in on THCB and THCBU a while back. Not ground floor but definitely prior to the Microvast deal being announced. By posting that, the deal is now destined to derail and I"ll lose all my money.....

https://investorplace.com/2021/02/thcb-stock-tuscan-holdings-shares-surge-on-microvast-spac-merger-news/


I do agree, the cryptos are screaming for a correction. Dogecoin was created as a joke and now it's the off-brand to bitcoin. Was on a call yesterday with a noted contrarian and he is calling bullshit on the fed printing money and the perception of crypto as the wave of the future. He's all in on hard assets as the safe haven.

The Fed printing money is exactly why Bitcoin is so valuable. It's an improved version of gold, which is why it's been eating gold's share of the store of value market and why gold is down since August despite the extreme monetary policy that should be great for gold's USD price. Most other cryptos are bullshit though.

Yes and no. Bitcoin probably is a better mechanism than gold - but the historic certainty of gold is worth something. Also, from a purely functional standpoint, if the world went to hell in a handbasket, how fungible is crypto?

I think there's a happy medium between the two -one is a historic hedge against inflation/market forces and the other has somewhat speculative features and upside potential.

Gold has been relatively constant the last couple months. I think that's the market magician's playing their bankster games. They held the price of gold down for years with their paper shenanigans - there truly is a massive shortage of physical gold if the reddit bros ever turn their sights on that one. Which is why I think they semi-fucked with silver as a practice run.

I'm in relatively close contact with two renowned gold bugs - one of whom has the technicals wired, the other a noted contrarian who relies on some common sense and being a codger. Both are convinced gold will hit 3,000 and then to the moon until about 10K per oz.

Yep, I absolutely agree that gold's established history is valuable and is why I said Bitcoin is an improved version of gold rather than a better version at this point in time. Gold is better in a number of categories: history (by a lot), fungibility and durability. As time goes on Bitcoin will lessen the history advantage and continue to prove its durability while the code could be updated to improve fungibility, although it's hard to imagine it becoming more fungible than gold. Bitcoin is better at portability (by a lot), scarcity, divisibility and censorship resistance (by a lot). Those categories are all important attributes of a store of value but to what extent each is important depends on the situation.

While it's true that if the world goes to hell in a handbasket that Bitcoin could be interrupted (less likely as we get things like Starlink or other space-internet solutions), it's probably better than gold in most situations. Portability and censorship resistance are really important in those situations.

Long term I definitely agree that there is a happy medium between the two, and I'll hold gold eventually but for now BTC is the play for me until it eats quite a bit more of the store of value market.

I looked at a prospectus last year on a combo Bitcoin/Gold play. Concept was to own producing gold mines and hedge the production with crypto - or vice versa.

Need to dust that thing off and see if it makes more sense in whacky times than it did then.

creepycoug said:

Doesn’t gold win really on scarcity? Talk me into the guaranteed Bitcoin scarcity.

Vijay Boyapati in his "Bullish Case for Bitcoin" puts it well:

"The attribute that most clearly distinguishes Bitcoin from fiat currencies and gold is its predetermined scarcity. By design, at most 21 million bitcoins can ever be created. This gives the owner of bitcoins a known percentage of the total possible supply. For instance, an owner of 10 bitcoins would know that at most 2.1 million people on earth (less than 0.03% of the world’s population) could ever have as many bitcoins as they had. Gold, while remaining quite scarce through history, is not immune to increases in supply. If it were ever the case that a new method of mining or acquiring gold became economic, the supply of gold could rise dramatically (examples include sea-floor or asteroid mining)."

To add on to that, gold increased its supply somewhere between 1 and 1.5% last year. And if the price of gold goes up, so will the amount mined as it becomes economically viable to do so and financially incentivized. If the price of Bitcoin goes up, the supply remains the same (for the next 4 years, 6.25 BTC will be mined every 10 minutes) but the added mining incentive just adds extra security to the network as the difficulty adjustment makes it more difficult to mine bitcoins as more mining power is added to the network (and vice versa if mining power is reduced).

Bitcoin's scarcity is coded and backed up by its community who believes in the hard supply cap of 21 million. It is of course possible that that could change in the future (questions over whether the fee market will be enough to secure the network when the final Bitcoin is mined in 2140 and whether the hard cap would be lifted for very minimal inflation if needed), but as long as there is any part of the community that believes in that hard cap, there will always be a version of Bitcoin with the hard cap. Even if the hard cap is lifted, it would be a minimal inflation (as low as possible to secure the network) and most importantly would be known, fixed and not subject to the whims of politicians as with fiat or even future supply shocks as with asteroid mining for gold.

Gold has been a good approximation of scarcity and inflation protection in the past. We now have something better at that.

If the world goes to hell only, ammo, food and gas will matter. What will a lump gold do you if your neighbor is trying to kill you for your freezer meat.

jecornel said:

If the world goes to hell only, ammo, food and gas will matter. What will a lump gold do you if your neighbor is trying to kill you for your freezer meat.

"Bullets and beans" has already been taken by @Swaye .

You've been gone for too long. This board moves fast Little Jimmy Cornel. You disappear to that cesspool drinking in the dark at high noon with that rabble who don't love you and don't care about you, and in the meantime we've covered the quantum physics of economic expansionism and debated the virtues of truly classic cars vs. their modern day analogs. And everything in between. You missed all that trying to earn the affection of those miscreants. They won't ever return your love. Stay here. Grow as a person.

@RaceBannon

@MikeSeaver

@DerekJohnson

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/munger-says-current-market-resembles-dot-com-bubble-calls-spacs-shit

Charlie says Get Off My Lawn!