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Will SPAC/Cryptocurrency be the top/bubble in retrospect when we look back?
godawgst
Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 2,618 
When this market finally resets and corrects will people look back and say the top was evident when any Cryptocurrency and SPAC started had people throwing money at it?
I say yes, what say you?
I say yes, what say you?
Comments
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No. Why do you think SPACs and crypto are the markers of a peak bubble?
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We are in new territory...the Fed never monetized the debt like they are now. Things will eventually “reset”, but I don’t think it’s going to be a reset like previous ones.
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Co-sign on crypto; not as clear on SPACs. But I agree, the "here's money; go buy something with it," isn't exactly a model that appeals to me.GreenRiverGatorz said:No. Why do you think SPACs and crypto are the markers of a peak bubble?
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Do you think the reset will be when we are finally forced to stop papering over our problems?HoustonHusky said:We are in new territory...the Fed never monetized the debt like they are now. Things will eventually “reset”, but I don’t think it’s going to be a reset like previous ones.
If so, what do you think will have value at that point? -
Hard assets...real estate, precious metals, ownership in tangible, tradable items, companies, etc. The last thing you want to be holding is cash in a bank account.creepycoug said:
Do you think the reset will be when we are finally forced to stop papering over our problems?HoustonHusky said:We are in new territory...the Fed never monetized the debt like they are now. Things will eventually “reset”, but I don’t think it’s going to be a reset like previous ones.
If so, what do you think will have value at that point?
It’s cascading out of control, but still think we have a long run before it crashes and resets...and who knows what that will look like. But the govt is unable to not spend $$$ and the Fed has written them a blank check to do so. We are already at the point of no return on interest rates...as the Fed chairman himself said the system will collapse if interest rates rise too much (and by too much he meant over 5% or even less on a 30 year treasury which is still low by historical standards). And these low interest rates just accelerates the unsustainable govt spending.
No clue what the reset looks like...writing off govt debt on the Fed balance sheet along with rewriting the charter of the Fed itself? Not my area of expertise...I’m sure the Fed has been working on a “solution” that puts them in charge more...when they are ready it will start leaking in the press. And given the stupidity of politicians on both sides of the aisle it’s a good bet they will blindly install it.
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I agree, we're still at halftime with the entire SPAC experiment. And history may look back at it as a goofy sham. But I'm not connecting the dots on how this is indicative of a bubble about to burst.creepycoug said:
Co-sign on crypto; not as clear on SPACs. But I agree, the "here's money; go buy something with it," isn't exactly a model that appeals to me.GreenRiverGatorz said:No. Why do you think SPACs and crypto are the markers of a peak bubble?
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SPAC's can only make money if they buy small tiny companies and take them public whether there is any business there or not.GreenRiverGatorz said:No. Why do you think SPACs and crypto are the markers of a peak bubble?
The multiple digital currencies all screaming higher and higher w/ no real fundamentals and the chasing of their daily prices (which to me look like the greater fool theory).
Every bubble I have seen at least in my lifetime have looked very similar to what I am seeing above with asset classes.
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godawgst said:
SPAC's can only make money if they buy small tiny companies and take them public whether there is any business there or not.GreenRiverGatorz said:No. Why do you think SPACs and crypto are the markers of a peak bubble?
The multiple digital currencies all screaming higher and higher w/ no real fundamentals and the chasing of their daily prices (which to me look like the greater fool theory).
Every bubble I have seen at least in my lifetime have looked very similar to what I am seeing above with asset classes.
Are you telling me this piece of digital art isn’t worth 1.5 mil????!!! -
Not entirely true.godawgst said:
SPAC's can only make money if they buy small tiny companies and take them public whether there is any business there or not.GreenRiverGatorz said:No. Why do you think SPACs and crypto are the markers of a peak bubble?
The multiple digital currencies all screaming higher and higher w/ no real fundamentals and the chasing of their daily prices (which to me look like the greater fool theory).
Every bubble I have seen at least in my lifetime have looked very similar to what I am seeing above with asset classes.
SPACs are traded just like many other securities - can buy just the shares, units (which include the stock and warrants) or just the warrants in a lot of cases. One can 'make money' prior to a deal - there is a market to trade. The BIG money to be made is if/when a deal is totally complete but one can make money on the day-to-day action.
I got in on THCB and THCBU a while back. Not ground floor but definitely prior to the Microvast deal being announced. By posting that, the deal is now destined to derail and I"ll lose all my money.....
https://investorplace.com/2021/02/thcb-stock-tuscan-holdings-shares-surge-on-microvast-spac-merger-news/
I do agree, the cryptos are screaming for a correction. Dogecoin was created as a joke and now it's the off-brand to bitcoin. Was on a call yesterday with a noted contrarian and he is calling bullshit on the fed printing money and the perception of crypto as the wave of the future. He's all in on hard assets as the safe haven.
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Nah - SPACs are just a vehicle to raise capital. No different than a hedge or venture fund or PE or hard money. A place to park the money until it is put to use.GreenRiverGatorz said:
I agree, we're still at halftime with the entire SPAC experiment. And history may look back at it as a goofy sham. But I'm not connecting the dots on how this is indicative of a bubble about to burst.creepycoug said:
Co-sign on crypto; not as clear on SPACs. But I agree, the "here's money; go buy something with it," isn't exactly a model that appeals to me.GreenRiverGatorz said:No. Why do you think SPACs and crypto are the markers of a peak bubble?
Now, you want to get into the Wild West, Reg A offerings are where the action is at. And if really want to go for a roller coaster ride, following the Reg D filings and track down the founders to see whether they'll take your money.
