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RaceBannon
RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 116,027 Founders Club
edited May 2022 in Tug Tavern
I did my taxes yesterday and my income for 2020 was almost an exact match for 2019. It should have been higher but its not real until its real

I got my profit share for 2019 in March of 2020. I kept on salary until we put a lid on it in July. My wife made more on unemployment than she would have working. I got enhanced UI the rest of the year.

Add it all up and it was a wash with one MAJOR caveat.

No profit check from 2020 will be heading to me in 2021. And still not back on salary but UI lasts through June and they probably extend it again.

So 2021 is when the income hit is taken. Meaning no rampant consumer spending only a focus on the vitals like wine, weed, and cigars.

I bring this up because a lot of people are waiting for the shoe to drop that everyone thinks should drop when you shut down a large portion of the economy.

LIPO

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  • greenblood
    greenblood Member Posts: 14,573
    edited February 2021
    There's also that transition period. A lot of these businesses are going to hoard money for at least a year or two, until they are certain that COVID is behind us. It's going to drop, and it's going to drop hard. And it's going to largely effect the consumer sector
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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 116,027 Founders Club
    greenblood said:

    There's also that transition period. A lot of these businesses are going to hoard money for at least a year or two, until they are certain that COVID is behind us. It's going to drop, and it's going to drop hard. And it's going to largely effect the consumer sector

    We decided last July that it was stupid to stay open and light money on fire. There is a lot of that I am sure.

    There is a minimum threshold of business on the books that makes it worthwhile to open.

    Not to mention the rules now in place to go anywhere and do anything. Very cumbersome
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  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,380
    greenblood said:

    There's also that transition period. A lot of these businesses are going to hoard money for at least a year or two, until they are certain that COVID is behind us. It's going to drop, and it's going to drop hard. And it's going to largely effect the consumer sector

    This is an interesting point ... one that makes sense to me. I've said to co-workers about going back to the office, "go back to what? all the things that make working in downtown Seattle a pleasure ... picking a spot for lunch, grabbing a coffee at your favorite whatever, all that is closed. Some for good." And then I add that when COVID is behind us, who is going to want to pony up capital again to get into those vulnerable businesses? Even the ones that are technically still open will be skidish.

    But then, I also think, what the fuck else you gonna do? If the food/beverage business is your business, it's what you do. If you have one, are you just going to leave it sit? Or are you going to fire back up like there's no tomorrow? I'm counting on the latter. I think when people are mobile again, sure, some shit is permanently changed. We've talked about that. But there will be money to be made and people have a hard time passing on that.

    Still, the structured 2021 tax hit Race talked about ... that doesn't help.
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