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RaceBannon
RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 114,091 Founders Club
edited May 2022 in Tug Tavern
I did my taxes yesterday and my income for 2020 was almost an exact match for 2019. It should have been higher but its not real until its real

I got my profit share for 2019 in March of 2020. I kept on salary until we put a lid on it in July. My wife made more on unemployment than she would have working. I got enhanced UI the rest of the year.

Add it all up and it was a wash with one MAJOR caveat.

No profit check from 2020 will be heading to me in 2021. And still not back on salary but UI lasts through June and they probably extend it again.

So 2021 is when the income hit is taken. Meaning no rampant consumer spending only a focus on the vitals like wine, weed, and cigars.

I bring this up because a lot of people are waiting for the shoe to drop that everyone thinks should drop when you shut down a large portion of the economy.

LIPO

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Comments

  • greenblood
    greenblood Member Posts: 14,560
    edited February 2021
    There's also that transition period. A lot of these businesses are going to hoard money for at least a year or two, until they are certain that COVID is behind us. It's going to drop, and it's going to drop hard. And it's going to largely effect the consumer sector
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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 114,091 Founders Club
    greenblood said:

    There's also that transition period. A lot of these businesses are going to hoard money for at least a year or two, until they are certain that COVID is behind us. It's going to drop, and it's going to drop hard. And it's going to largely effect the consumer sector

    We decided last July that it was stupid to stay open and light money on fire. There is a lot of that I am sure.

    There is a minimum threshold of business on the books that makes it worthwhile to open.

    Not to mention the rules now in place to go anywhere and do anything. Very cumbersome
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  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,066
    greenblood said:

    There's also that transition period. A lot of these businesses are going to hoard money for at least a year or two, until they are certain that COVID is behind us. It's going to drop, and it's going to drop hard. And it's going to largely effect the consumer sector

    This is an interesting point ... one that makes sense to me. I've said to co-workers about going back to the office, "go back to what? all the things that make working in downtown Seattle a pleasure ... picking a spot for lunch, grabbing a coffee at your favorite whatever, all that is closed. Some for good." And then I add that when COVID is behind us, who is going to want to pony up capital again to get into those vulnerable businesses? Even the ones that are technically still open will be skidish.

    But then, I also think, what the fuck else you gonna do? If the food/beverage business is your business, it's what you do. If you have one, are you just going to leave it sit? Or are you going to fire back up like there's no tomorrow? I'm counting on the latter. I think when people are mobile again, sure, some shit is permanently changed. We've talked about that. But there will be money to be made and people have a hard time passing on that.

    Still, the structured 2021 tax hit Race talked about ... that doesn't help.
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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 114,091 Founders Club
    theknowledge said:

    PurpleThrobber said:

    dflea said:

    RaceBannon said:

    greenblood said:

    There's also that transition period. A lot of these businesses are going to hoard money for at least a year or two, until they are certain that COVID is behind us. It's going to drop, and it's going to drop hard. And it's going to largely effect the consumer sector

    We decided last July that it was stupid to stay open and light money on fire. There is a lot of that I am sure.

    There is a minimum threshold of business on the books that makes it worthwhile to open.

    Not to mention the rules now in place to go anywhere and do anything. Very cumbersome
    This is why restaurants being allowed to open at 25% capacity is like keeping them closed. Every fixed cost you have is tough to cover with only 25% of your revenue.

    I'm glad I'm not in the food service bidness.



    There's not a chance in hell a restaurant can break even at 25% capacity.

    Maybe a weiner cart.

    H'eh h'eh h'eh...weiner.

    The smaller restaurants or eateries I frequent tell me that they are hanging on with take out. The 25% is just a little extra to help get by. The wait staff is gone. I'm being helped at my seat or cash register by the owner or someone in their family. This just applies to the places still open. Many are gone now.
    My wife's nail salon did the same. Laid everyone off and family only work there

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  • FireCohen
    FireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
    theknowledge said:

    PurpleThrobber said:

    dflea said:

    RaceBannon said:

    greenblood said:

    There's also that transition period. A lot of these businesses are going to hoard money for at least a year or two, until they are certain that COVID is behind us. It's going to drop, and it's going to drop hard. And it's going to largely effect the consumer sector

    We decided last July that it was stupid to stay open and light money on fire. There is a lot of that I am sure.

    There is a minimum threshold of business on the books that makes it worthwhile to open.

    Not to mention the rules now in place to go anywhere and do anything. Very cumbersome
    This is why restaurants being allowed to open at 25% capacity is like keeping them closed. Every fixed cost you have is tough to cover with only 25% of your revenue.

    I'm glad I'm not in the food service bidness.



    There's not a chance in hell a restaurant can break even at 25% capacity.

    Maybe a weiner cart.

    H'eh h'eh h'eh...weiner.

    The smaller restaurants or eateries I frequent tell me that they are hanging on with take out. The 25% is just a little extra to help get by. The wait staff is gone. I'm being helped at my seat or cash register by the owner or someone in their family. This just applies to the places still open. Many are gone now.
    It is bad, lots of shops folded
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  • PostGameOrangeSlices
    PostGameOrangeSlices Member Posts: 27,216
    dflea said:

    RaceBannon said:

    greenblood said:

    There's also that transition period. A lot of these businesses are going to hoard money for at least a year or two, until they are certain that COVID is behind us. It's going to drop, and it's going to drop hard. And it's going to largely effect the consumer sector

    We decided last July that it was stupid to stay open and light money on fire. There is a lot of that I am sure.

    There is a minimum threshold of business on the books that makes it worthwhile to open.

    Not to mention the rules now in place to go anywhere and do anything. Very cumbersome
    This is why restaurants being allowed to open at 25% capacity is like keeping them closed. Every fixed cost you have is tough to cover with only 25% of your revenue.

    I'm glad I'm not in the food service bidness.




    None of the restaurants are adhering to this shit. The ones I've been in have been fullish
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  • PurpleThrobber
    PurpleThrobber Member Posts: 48,114 Standard Supporter
    edited February 2021
    RaceBannon said:

    theknowledge said:

    PurpleThrobber said:

    dflea said:

    RaceBannon said:

    greenblood said:

    There's also that transition period. A lot of these businesses are going to hoard money for at least a year or two, until they are certain that COVID is behind us. It's going to drop, and it's going to drop hard. And it's going to largely effect the consumer sector

    We decided last July that it was stupid to stay open and light money on fire. There is a lot of that I am sure.

    There is a minimum threshold of business on the books that makes it worthwhile to open.

    Not to mention the rules now in place to go anywhere and do anything. Very cumbersome
    This is why restaurants being allowed to open at 25% capacity is like keeping them closed. Every fixed cost you have is tough to cover with only 25% of your revenue.

    I'm glad I'm not in the food service bidness.



    There's not a chance in hell a restaurant can break even at 25% capacity.

    Maybe a weiner cart.

    H'eh h'eh h'eh...weiner.

    The smaller restaurants or eateries I frequent tell me that they are hanging on with take out. The 25% is just a little extra to help get by. The wait staff is gone. I'm being helped at my seat or cash register by the owner or someone in their family. This just applies to the places still open. Many are gone now.
    My wife's nail salon did the same. Laid everyone off and family only work there

    theknowledge said:

    RaceBannon said:

    I've personally kept Shakeys afloat

    I drive to Union Gap twice a month to buy crab legs at the last Sea Galley in the state. It will not die on my watch damnit!
    Have spent many drunken nights there. Good eats and stiff drinks.
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  • LoneStarDawg
    LoneStarDawg Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 13,681 Founders Club
    Who would have known stay at home orders are good for 5G

    And OBKs shitpoasting
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  • PurpleThrobber
    PurpleThrobber Member Posts: 48,114 Standard Supporter
    LoneStarDawg said:

    Who would have known stay at home orders are good for 5G

    And OBKs shitpoasting

    It’s art
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  • dflea
    dflea Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 7,287 Swaye's Wigwam
    PostGameOrangeSlices said:

    dflea said:

    RaceBannon said:

    greenblood said:

    There's also that transition period. A lot of these businesses are going to hoard money for at least a year or two, until they are certain that COVID is behind us. It's going to drop, and it's going to drop hard. And it's going to largely effect the consumer sector

    We decided last July that it was stupid to stay open and light money on fire. There is a lot of that I am sure.

    There is a minimum threshold of business on the books that makes it worthwhile to open.

    Not to mention the rules now in place to go anywhere and do anything. Very cumbersome
    This is why restaurants being allowed to open at 25% capacity is like keeping them closed. Every fixed cost you have is tough to cover with only 25% of your revenue.

    I'm glad I'm not in the food service bidness.




    None of the restaurants are adhering to this shit. The ones I've been in have been fullish
    A man's got to do what a man's got to do.

    I wouldn't go on TV and tell everyone, though.
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  • FireCohen
    FireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
    dflea said:

    PostGameOrangeSlices said:

    dflea said:

    RaceBannon said:

    greenblood said:

    There's also that transition period. A lot of these businesses are going to hoard money for at least a year or two, until they are certain that COVID is behind us. It's going to drop, and it's going to drop hard. And it's going to largely effect the consumer sector

    We decided last July that it was stupid to stay open and light money on fire. There is a lot of that I am sure.

    There is a minimum threshold of business on the books that makes it worthwhile to open.

    Not to mention the rules now in place to go anywhere and do anything. Very cumbersome
    This is why restaurants being allowed to open at 25% capacity is like keeping them closed. Every fixed cost you have is tough to cover with only 25% of your revenue.

    I'm glad I'm not in the food service bidness.




    Noone of the restaurants are adhering to this shit. The ones I've been in have been fullish
    A man's got to do what a man's got to do.

    I wouldn't go on TV and tell everyone, though.
    @PostGameOrangeSlices would
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  • haie
    haie Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 23,797 Founders Club
    What I'm getting from this is that pubs in bumblefuck counties in Eastern Washington smoke weed and talk shit to Inslee but the ones in Western Washington are all about starving themselves to flatten the curve.

    Fucking amazing.
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  • doogie
    doogie Member Posts: 15,072
    theknowledge said:

    RaceBannon said:

    I've personally kept Shakeys afloat

    I drive to Union Gap twice a month to buy crab legs at the last Sea Galley in the state. It will not die on my watch damnit!
    BUY crab legs???
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  • theknowledge
    theknowledge Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 5,642 Founders Club
    doogie said:

    theknowledge said:

    RaceBannon said:

    I've personally kept Shakeys afloat

    I drive to Union Gap twice a month to buy crab legs at the last Sea Galley in the state. It will not die on my watch damnit!
    BUY crab legs???
    @Winstondawg true?!?!?
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  • BleachedAnusDawg
    BleachedAnusDawg Member Posts: 13,298 Standard Supporter
    haie said:

    What I'm getting from this is that pubs in bumblefuck counties in Eastern Washington smoke weed and talk shit to Inslee but the ones in Western Washington are all about starving themselves to flatten the curve.

    Fucking amazing.

    I have found some places in Kitsap that are open for indoors bidness even though the county is Phase 1. Enjoyed a nice prime rib special last weekend at one of them with the wife and kids. For the youngest it was the first time he'd ever eaten a meal inside a restaurant.
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