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Tesla
Baseman
Member Posts: 12,365
Hot talk. Weed smoking CEO. GoGo stock. Why?
I see an expensive car and a $285 billion enterprise value. 150x forward p/e and 270x TTM FCF.
Discuss
I see an expensive car and a $285 billion enterprise value. 150x forward p/e and 270x TTM FCF.
Discuss
Comments
Amazon is a bookstore.
Facebook is the new mySpace.
Microsoft is a software company.
Each of these companies had an underlying important vision behind what they were doing. Tesla is in the same boat. Batteries, energy storage, energy distribution...and even more than that.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a33368022/ford-mustang-mach-e-1400-revealed/
Your google must not be working.
No one holds a candle to Tesla.
The #1 selling EV is Tesla model Y. 76,426 sold so far in 2021. Add up all the others on the list of top 12 not named Tesla you get 64,841.
Add up all the Teslas on the list you get 139,297.
Tesla is double all other EVs combined.
You're looking at the future dominant car manufacturer in the world. And yeah, they aren't even a car company.
Volkswagen and other car makers are catching up quick.
You could buy Volkswagen and Adobe for $30 billion less than Tesla and have real growth in free cash flow in both vehicles and software.
Tesla is valued at a richer multiple than Cisco was in 2000 with 1/8 the net margin. Cisco, the market said at the time was not just about routers and switches. Lucrative high margin Software services and Maint contracts were promised to fuel future growth and justify the rich valuation. The internet. Things were different then.
Cisco 2000 Market Cap: $546 B. ($22 B. Revenue. $3.9 B. Net Income (17.7%)
Cisco 2021 Market Cap: $232 B. ($49 B. Revenue. $11.2 B Net Income (22.9%)
Tesla 2021 Market Cap $620 B. ($31.5 B Revenue $846 M. Net Income (2.2%) Tesla generated $1.6 Billion (almost zero cost) selling regulatory credits in 2020. Remove the credits and Tesla lost money)
Tesla's "Growth" in 2021 came through BitCoin trading and selling environmental credits.)
At 20x Sales and a 2% net margin, Tesla is going to have to sell a lot more cars and capitalize on growing their BitCoin trading to justify their standing. Selling more cars requires a lot more capital.
I'll be shocked if Tesla doesn't take a major haircut in the near future. Caveat emptor.
"Tesla's "Growth" in 2021 came through BitCoin trading and selling environmental credits." - come on, you didn't need this false line, the bear case against Telsa is strong enough by just attacking the valuation.
I think the bear case keeps a lot of money away from investing in Tesla. I think it's safe to say you are not an investor. But is your belief in the bear case strong enough that you would bet against it?
I vividly remember Facebook going public - IPO was 40 bucks. I could not wrap my head around how this company could make money. It was totally ridiculous to me. So what's this have to do with the Tesla bull argument? Probably nothing, but I'm quick to not bet against a visionary. For the record, I fucking hate Zukerberg and FB - but I make a little $$ on FB options here and there.
@Baseman I know you are not invested in Tesla, not even on the downside - that's just not you. But I think you have to admit, demand for EVs in America would not be where it is today without Elon.
As far as my comment about Tesla being the biggest car manufacturer in the future, and the counter that they don't have the productions capability to overtake the big automakers - we'll see. Tesla pretty much has one productions facility, Freemont CA. 3 more are on the verge of opening 2021 - Austin, Berlin and Shanghai. Currently, demand for Teslas far outweighs supply. Cars will be rolling out of these new plants in a few months, fully ramping in 2022 - the other automakers will still be fiddling with their dicks trying to get their vehicles from prototypes to production while Elon will be spraying cars all around the world.
The car industry is changing - legacy automakers are gong to have a tough go of it. Every Tesla car sold is taking share from legacy auto. Every legacy auto EV sale is taking share from itself. Because of this, the market share argument does not compute for me. For example, the Ford Lightening (when it hits the market in a few years - lol) will cannibalize the F150.
Plus - car ownership will be a foreign concept for a lot of people in the not so distant future. ROBOTAXI. Telsa wins again.
I don't see Legacy "crushing" Tesla, I just don't. I don't see Legacy building a better EV either, especially over the next 3-5 years, no way.
Instead of growth, I should have been more specific: "profit growth" Backout the credits and bitcoin trades, Tesla is in the red. Facebook wasn't reliant on other revenue sources for profitability.
Tesla can certainly build more plants and sell more cars, they'll have to to justify the valuation. It's a capital intensive, low ROIC business, anyway you slice it.
Tesla is a great company, just like Cisco was in 2000. Both were richly valued, different disrupters. The market eventually revalued Cisco. Cisco's market eventually corrected.
I'd buy the car -- maybe -- but I'll pass on the stock and buy puts.
Have you sat in a Tesla before? Maybe you own one...the build quality is pretty lousy (as noted by experts, not my opinion) and the interiors are cheap and spartan (spartan by design, but most people will not accept that). Also, is anyone noticing that the Model S has not been re-designed for 12+ years? They can't get away with that forever. Model 3 is already four years old and still looks exactly the same.
I think Tesla builds a cool product and has carved out a loyal following. They aren't going away, but I have serious doubts that they'll ever be on par with Ford or GM. Ford is already selling the Mach-E and has the Lightning F-150 releasing in a few months (who in their right mind would buy a Cybertruck over that?). Jeep has its 4xE models which are apparently doing well. GM has the Bolt and will have its entire fleet electrified in the coming years, starting with the new Hummer lineup.
Towing a boat, RV or service trailer 100 miles then taking a 10 hour charging break ain’t gonna cut it.
But hey, if the power goes down in a storm you can use it to power your House! I saw that on tee vee