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UW Schedule 2014: Enough about the cupcakes, let's look at the Pac-12 games

whatshouldicareabout
whatshouldicareabout Member Posts: 12,991
in Hardcore Husky Board
There's been plenty of talk about the first four games of the season (the cake-walk known as Hawaii, EWU, Illinois and Georgia State) and how Stanford is the start of the 'real' season, but not much has been made about what follows after Stanford. Really, the fun half of the season is going to happen after the Stanford game and the schedule doesn't look too bad despite only having 3 home games in October/November combined.

Here is how the schedule looks following the Stanford game:

10/04 BYE
10/11 @ Cal
10/18 @‌ Oregon
10/25 Arizona State
11/01 @‌ Colorado
11/08 UCLA
11/15 @‌ Arizona
11/22 Oregon State
11/29 @‌ Wazzu

Under Sark, this would be a brutal stretch, evidenced by his woeful 8-19 (.296) record on the road at UW. However, for a coach that knows how to prepare his team to play on the road like Petersen, the road schedule looks favorable with our second toughest road game being arguably Wazzu. We get UCLA at home in November and after Colorado, which is probably the best thing we could've hoped for. We get ASU at home in late October, right after they finish playing Stanford which should be a revenge game for them after what happened in the Pac-12 championship. We also have Cal ahead of Oregon, so we have a true road game experience with the weakest Pac-12 team before traveling to Eugene.

Really, the schedule looks ideal for Petersen's first year with a simple preseason and weak teams before virtually all our tough games. I know plenty of fans have high expectations with 10 wins being the minimum, but it looks like it's entirely possible to win even more with the schedule set up this way.

Thoughts on the structure of the schedule and how Petersen will navigate it?
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Comments

  • allpurpleallgold
    allpurpleallgold Member Posts: 8,771
    10 wins or GTFO.
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  • TTJ
    TTJ Member Posts: 4,827
    Early estimated likelihood of winning, by week:

    8/30 at Hawai'i (90%)
    9/6 EWU (90%)
    9/13 Illinois (80%)
    9/20 Georgia St (90%)
    9/27 Stanford (60%)
    10/11 at Cal (100%)
    10/18 at Oregon (40%)
    10/25 Arizona St (60%)
    11/1 at Colorado (80%)
    11/8 UCLA (30%)
    11/15 at Arizona (60%)
    11/22 Oregon St (80%)
    11/29 at Washington St (70%)

    In other words, UW should really only be significant Vegas underdogs in two of 13 games, with roughly three other pick 'ems. Get proficient play at QB, and ten wins is a *very* attainable goal.
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  • oregonblitzkrieg
    oregonblitzkrieg Member Posts: 15,288
    TTJ said:

    Early estimated likelihood of winning, by week:

    8/30 at Hawai'i (90%)
    9/6 EWU (90%)
    9/13 Illinois (80%)
    9/20 Georgia St (90%)
    9/27 Stanford (60%)
    10/11 at Cal (100%)
    10/18 at Oregon (40%)
    10/25 Arizona St (60%)
    11/1 at Colorado (80%)
    11/8 UCLA (30%)
    11/15 at Arizona (60%)
    11/22 Oregon St (80%)
    11/29 at Washington St (70%)

    In other words, UW should really only be significant Vegas underdogs in two of 13 games, with roughly three other pick 'ems. Get proficient play at QB, and ten wins is a *very* attainable goal.

    Downvoted for predicting less chance of beating UCLA at home than Oregon on the road.
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  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 11,453
    TTJ said:

    Early estimated likelihood of winning, by week:

    8/30 at Hawai'i (90%)
    9/6 EWU (90%)
    9/13 Illinois (80%)
    9/20 Georgia St (90%)
    9/27 Stanford (60%)
    10/11 at Cal (100%)
    10/18 at Oregon (40%)
    10/25 Arizona St (60%)
    11/1 at Colorado (80%)
    11/8 UCLA (30%)
    11/15 at Arizona (60%)
    11/22 Oregon St (80%)
    11/29 at Washington St (70%)

    In other words, UW should really only be significant Vegas underdogs in two of 13 games, with roughly three other pick 'ems. Get proficient play at QB, and ten wins is a *very* attainable goal.

    How are the first four games not 100% ??????
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  • whatshouldicareabout
    whatshouldicareabout Member Posts: 12,991
    Good idea. Here's how I see the season playing out (from weakest to strongest)

    09/20 Georgia St (100%)
    08/30 at Hawai'i (100%)
    10/11 at Cal (100%)
    11/01 at Colorado (95%)
    09/13 Illinois (90%)
    09/06 EWU (90%)
    11/22 Oregon St (75%)
    10/25 Arizona St (60%)
    11/15 at Arizona (60%)
    11/29 at Washington St (60%)
    11/08 UCLA (50%)
    09/27 Stanford (50%)
    10/18 at Oregon (20%)

    We should be favored in 10/13 games this year, but 12 of these games are realistic wins. Then again, these numbers will change before the start of the season on September 27th.
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  • TierbsHsotBoobs
    TierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
    whatshouldicareabout said:

    Good idea. Here's how I see the season playing out (from weakest to strongest)

    09/20 Georgia St (100%)
    08/30 at Hawai'i (100%)
    10/11 at Cal (100%)
    11/01 at Colorado (95%)
    09/13 Illinois (90%)
    09/06 EWU (90%)
    11/22 Oregon St (75%)
    10/25 Arizona St (60%)
    11/15 at Arizona (60%)
    11/29 at Washington St (60%)
    11/08 UCLA (50%)
    09/27 Stanford (50%)
    10/18 at Oregon (20%)

    We should be favored in 10/13 games this year, but 12 of these games are realistic wins. Then again, these numbers will change before the start of the season on September 27th.

    at Cal and at Colorado are not easier than Illinois and EWU at home.

    CHRIST.
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  • fivehundredmileDAWG
    fivehundredmileDAWG Member Posts: 1,212
    10 wins.

    Zero excuses.

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  • whatshouldicareabout
    whatshouldicareabout Member Posts: 12,991
    TierbsHsotBoobs said:

    at Cal and at Colorado are not easier than Illinois and EWU at home.

    CHRIST.

    Games in the 90%-100% territory are in the "who gives a fuck, count them as wins" category.

    FWIW, last year's EWU would beat last year's Illinois, Cal and Colorado teams. I have no clue who's gone or returning from those teams, so I'm just going from last year's data.
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