King, Snohomish, Pierce data combined ( based on date of illness onset )

theknowledge said:

incremetal_progress said:

as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.

Bob_C said:

theknowledge said:

incremetal_progress said:

as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.

You’re right on. The death rate was always going to go down, assuming hospitals were functioning, as they are.

March picked off a ton of the really weak, exposed bad policies in NY around nursing homes that aren’t being repeated.

Not only is testing higher in volume, it’s being collected completely differently. Just looking at King County, hospitals/positive cases were like 20% in March. Positive cases and hospitalizations were completely correlated in real time as people who were truly sick were getting tested as they entered hospitals, there was no lag.

It’s totally different now. Demographics aside, it implies that had the testing method been the same in early March as it is now, we would have had at least 5 times as many cases as what is actually reported to get to a similar hospital rate with 1 week lag less than 5%, that we are seeing now with long lead testing in place. So the spike in cases that is being seen now, which is like 2/3 as big as the late March peak in total positive cases is in reality about 15% of what the early March peak would have looked like with the same methods in place.