Captain Obvious Here - The problem with Inslee's Metrics for Phases...
Metric 1: Rate per 100,000 population of newly diagnosed cases in past 2 weeks
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Gee, I wonder if the # of people we're testing is an important variable to consider if you're watching trends. I guess not since it's never mentioned. My math and comp sci background says it should.
Metric 2: Number of individuals tested for each new case in prior week
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Let's have a metric based on flawed metric #1 above.
Metric 3: Percentage of individuals testing positive during the past week
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Gee, I wonder if the percentage of cases will go UP when it's warm and flu season is not running concurrently?
Metric 4: Percentage of licensed beds occupied by patients
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Shit metric. Meaningless. Kick out elective procedures if you don't have room.
Metric 5: Percentage of licensed beds occupied by COVID-19 patients
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Reasonable metric. Only good one in the bunch.
What the metrics should be?
Probably just need 1 metric - # hospital admissions / 100K population. Knowing how that trends is likely all that matters. Deaths likely correlate with this metric.
Pierce County used to show that on the website but now they've switch to State-provided charts.
Obviously, this is very Grim:
Since the #s don't work, the press talks about "Highest # of cases since march" "Cases explode in Pierce County" to keep the Karens all worked up.
Comments
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It's science. Wear the fucking mask
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How long will it take for everyone other than Daomoné & me to realize positive case <> illness.
Wash you’re hand, Washuhntonians -
@BearsWiin ? True?DoogieMcDoogerson said:I am beginning to think this is by design. People who are scientists and mathematicians wouldn't choose these metrics.
Metric 1: Rate per 100,000 population of newly diagnosed cases in past 2 weeks
========================================================
Gee, I wonder if the # of people we're testing is an important variable to consider if you're watching trends. I guess not since it's never mentioned. My math and comp sci background says it should.
Metric 2: Number of individuals tested for each new case in prior week
========================================================
Let's have a metric based on flawed metric #1 above.
Metric 3: Percentage of individuals testing positive during the past week
========================================================
Gee, I wonder if the percentage of cases will go UP when it's warm and flu season is not running concurrently?
Metric 4: Percentage of licensed beds occupied by patients
========================================================
Shit metric. Meaningless. Kick out elective procedures if you don't have room.
Metric 5: Percentage of licensed beds occupied by COVID-19 patients
========================================================
Reasonable metric. Only good one in the bunch.
What the metrics should be?
Probably just need 1 metric - # hospital admissions / 100K population. Knowing how that trends is likely all that matters. Deaths likely correlate with this metric.
Pierce County used to show that on the website but now they've switch to State-provided charts.
Obviously, this is very Grim:
Since the #s don't work, the press talks about "Highest # of cases since march" "Cases explode in Pierce County" to keep the Karens all worked up. -
UhhhGrundleStiltzkin said:How long will it take for everyone other than Daomoné & me to realize positive case <> illness.
Wash you’re hand, Washuhntonians -
Probably just need 1 metric - # hospital admissions / 100K population. Knowing how that trends is likely all that matters. Deaths likely correlate with this metric.
The Throbber has been banging this drum since the beginning. Hospital occupancy rate is all that matters.
Don't even get me started on the absurdity of death with COVID stats being sold as death from COVID.
Bunch of Vernon Adams clones fucking with the maff here.
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Today's headline in The Seattle Times was written last week I'm sure:
"EXPERTS EXPECT VIRUS DEATH TOLL TO RISE"
"GRIM DATA"
But of course... nothing has happened! It's all speculation. It's not just fake news, it's speculation that's turned into news. -
You know what other 'death tolls' rose just yesterday? Deaths from suicide, cancer, heart disease, diabetes, car wrecks...take your pick.
Every fucking day the death toll rises. On everything.
Vernon Adams could even figure this maff out.
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I like that the graph the Seattle Times uses to show death are always a 0-current nimbler graph when a graph showing daily deaths statewide or nationally are striking in their slope downward. One makes it ;look like the corona death will never stop and the other? Not so much.
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Liberals have never been known for their math or stats prowess
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Q for the stats gurus - where's the best source for hospitalization stats? Worldometer does a good job of tracking and visualizing death trends, but hospitalization is tougher to find.
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I think it applies to US in general nowPostGameOrangeSlices said:Liberals have never been known for their math or stats prowess
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I tried to find out how many beds in Riverside County and failed miserablyGreenRiverGatorz said:Q for the stats gurus - where's the best source for hospitalization stats? Worldometer does a good job of tracking and visualizing death trends, but hospitalization is tougher to find.
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You're not wrongFireCohen said:
I think it applies to US in general nowPostGameOrangeSlices said:Liberals have never been known for their math or stats prowess
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Jay’s a data guy. He took Stat 311 back in the 70’s to earn that Econ degree. Probably a lot of power BI and Tableau was used.
I’ve seen these people in business a lot. There are a lot of posers that claim to be about data and remind you over and over that they are data guys. They use it for confirmation bias occasionally. Anyone who repeatedly tells you they are about the data, isn’t about the data. Leading with data shows you are about the data.
Jay’s a poser. -
Silent Bob_C > JayBob_C said:Jay’s a data guy. He took Stat 311 back in the 70’s to earn that Econ degree. Probably a lot of power BI and Tableau was used.
I’ve seen these people in business a lot. There are a lot of posers that claim to be about data and remind you over and over that they are data guys. They use it for confirmation bias occasionally. Anyone who repeatedly tells you they are about the data, isn’t about the data. Leading with data shows you are about the data.
Jay’s a poser. -
Which hand?GrundleStiltzkin said:How long will it take for everyone other than Daomoné & me to realize positive case <> illness.
Wash you’re hand, Washuhntonians -
The one you use to BB.creepycoug said:
Which hand?GrundleStiltzkin said:How long will it take for everyone other than Daomoné & me to realize positive case <> illness.
Wash you’re hand, Washuhntonians -
Remember, cases is not equal to people that tested positive. One person can test numerous times, each counting as a case.
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I would guess that's an insignificant number. Moot point anyways since cases shouldn't be used to establish anything involving the trends/progression of the virus. Hospitalizations and deaths are all that matter.alumni94 said:Remember, cases is not equal to people that tested positive. One person can test numerous times, each counting as a case.
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I agree, but all we hear about is the cases. The cases are driving the decisions on policy and fear. If there is a way to show that cases are a poor, inaccurate way to calculate, then maybe...just maybe, people will look at data that is more realistic.GreenRiverGatorz said:
I would guess that's an insignificant number. Moot point anyways since cases shouldn't be used to establish anything involving the trends/progression of the virus. Hospitalizations and deaths are all that matter.alumni94 said:Remember, cases is not equal to people that tested positive. One person can test numerous times, each counting as a case.
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My liberal snowflake friends are whipped up into a froth right now over the spike in cases so the propaganda machine is doing it's magic. They don't want to hear any of what I have to say about numbers that really matter. People have lost their fucking minds.
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Trump's Oklahoma Rally made everyone in California and Florida sick, Goddamnit!
Why won't you believe Don Lemon & Co? -
The left weaponized the Trump speaking point about increased tests equaling increased cases. I've had two long conversations in the last day expressing that its a fact, and not just Trump trying to avoid the stupid notion that any politician is responsible for a virus spreading. What we should be worrying about is if the number of tests returning positive increased to >10%. Current positive tests have been consistent, even with more testing, at 6% of those tested.
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Heard others say this but it doesn’t make logical sense to me. Trying to figure out what I’m missing. Why would the % positive rate matter at all?huskyhooligan said:The left weaponized the Trump speaking point about increased tests equaling increased cases. I've had two long conversations in the last day expressing that its a fact, and not just Trump trying to avoid the stupid notion that any politician is responsible for a virus spreading. What we should be worrying about is if the number of tests returning positive increased to >10%. Current positive tests have been consistent, even with more testing, at 6% of those tested.
I could see that it would if we are doing true random testing. In fact we are doing the complete opposite of random testing, even more so now with this contact tracing happening.
