Captain Obvious Here - The problem with Inslee's Metrics for Phases...
Metric 1: Rate per 100,000 population of newly diagnosed cases in past 2 weeks
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Gee, I wonder if the # of people we're testing is an important variable to consider if you're watching trends. I guess not since it's never mentioned. My math and comp sci background says it should.
Metric 2: Number of individuals tested for each new case in prior week
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Let's have a metric based on flawed metric #1 above.
Metric 3: Percentage of individuals testing positive during the past week
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Gee, I wonder if the percentage of cases will go UP when it's warm and flu season is not running concurrently?
Metric 4: Percentage of licensed beds occupied by patients
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Shit metric. Meaningless. Kick out elective procedures if you don't have room.
Metric 5: Percentage of licensed beds occupied by COVID-19 patients
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Reasonable metric. Only good one in the bunch.
What the metrics should be?
Probably just need 1 metric - # hospital admissions / 100K population. Knowing how that trends is likely all that matters. Deaths likely correlate with this metric.
Pierce County used to show that on the website but now they've switch to State-provided charts.
Obviously, this is very Grim:
Since the #s don't work, the press talks about "Highest # of cases since march" "Cases explode in Pierce County" to keep the Karens all worked up.
Comments
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It's science. Wear the fucking mask
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How long will it take for everyone other than Daomoné & me to realize positive case <> illness.
Wash you’re hand, Washuhntonians -
@BearsWiin ? True?DoogieMcDoogerson said:I am beginning to think this is by design. People who are scientists and mathematicians wouldn't choose these metrics.
Metric 1: Rate per 100,000 population of newly diagnosed cases in past 2 weeks
========================================================
Gee, I wonder if the # of people we're testing is an important variable to consider if you're watching trends. I guess not since it's never mentioned. My math and comp sci background says it should.
Metric 2: Number of individuals tested for each new case in prior week
========================================================
Let's have a metric based on flawed metric #1 above.
Metric 3: Percentage of individuals testing positive during the past week
========================================================
Gee, I wonder if the percentage of cases will go UP when it's warm and flu season is not running concurrently?
Metric 4: Percentage of licensed beds occupied by patients
========================================================
Shit metric. Meaningless. Kick out elective procedures if you don't have room.
Metric 5: Percentage of licensed beds occupied by COVID-19 patients
========================================================
Reasonable metric. Only good one in the bunch.
What the metrics should be?
Probably just need 1 metric - # hospital admissions / 100K population. Knowing how that trends is likely all that matters. Deaths likely correlate with this metric.
Pierce County used to show that on the website but now they've switch to State-provided charts.
Obviously, this is very Grim:
Since the #s don't work, the press talks about "Highest # of cases since march" "Cases explode in Pierce County" to keep the Karens all worked up. -
UhhhGrundleStiltzkin said:How long will it take for everyone other than Daomoné & me to realize positive case <> illness.
Wash you’re hand, Washuhntonians -
Probably just need 1 metric - # hospital admissions / 100K population. Knowing how that trends is likely all that matters. Deaths likely correlate with this metric.
The Throbber has been banging this drum since the beginning. Hospital occupancy rate is all that matters.
Don't even get me started on the absurdity of death with COVID stats being sold as death from COVID.
Bunch of Vernon Adams clones fucking with the maff here.
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Today's headline in The Seattle Times was written last week I'm sure:
"EXPERTS EXPECT VIRUS DEATH TOLL TO RISE"
"GRIM DATA"
But of course... nothing has happened! It's all speculation. It's not just fake news, it's speculation that's turned into news. -
You know what other 'death tolls' rose just yesterday? Deaths from suicide, cancer, heart disease, diabetes, car wrecks...take your pick.
Every fucking day the death toll rises. On everything.
Vernon Adams could even figure this maff out.
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I like that the graph the Seattle Times uses to show death are always a 0-current nimbler graph when a graph showing daily deaths statewide or nationally are striking in their slope downward. One makes it ;look like the corona death will never stop and the other? Not so much.
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Liberals have never been known for their math or stats prowess
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Q for the stats gurus - where's the best source for hospitalization stats? Worldometer does a good job of tracking and visualizing death trends, but hospitalization is tougher to find.
