Trump is fucked in November
Kiss the tax cuts goodbye and get ready for SIT in Washington. Get ready for 50% federal income tax for top earners. Get ready to bow solemnly to our chicom rulers in global politics and trade.
Grab all the screenshots you want. We are staring Joe Biden for 4 years and then Liz Warren, Stacy Abrams, or Amy K for another 8. It’s going to be a long cold winter after we all emerge from our COVID basements.
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Don't believe the polls.
And I'll be shocked if Biden makes it to the Convention. -
I stopped predicting elections after the Trump landslide. I was so wrong on that one and on Romney as well. Having been involved in polling I can tell you that double digit right now means absolutely 0. There were quite a few that had The Bitch winning in double digits and that was the night of the election. The only two things that are worth even paying slight attention to right now is the likelihood of independents to actually go to the polls and if you can find a measurement of how motivated the 18-29 crowd is vote for biden.
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Grimthechatch said:Double digit deficit in the polls to a guy that is entering dementia and doesn’t even have to leave his basement to increase that margin in campaign season. The senate is probably gone too. Biden is gonna win and get led around by the nose by whichever “minority” woman he gets told to name for VP.
Kiss the tax cuts goodbye and get ready for SIT in Washington. Get ready for 50% federal income tax for top earners. Get ready to bow solemnly to our chicom rulers in global politics and trade.
Grab all the screenshots you want. We are staring Joe Biden for 4 years and then Liz Warren, Stacy Abrams, or Amy K for another 8. It’s going to be a long cold winter after we all emerge from our COVID basements. -
18-29 not motivatedBendintheriver said:I stopped predicting elections after the Trump landslide. I was so wrong on that one and on Romney as well. Having been involved in polling I can tell you that double digit right now means absolutely 0. There were quite a few that had The Bitch winning in double digits and that was the night of the election. The only two things that are worth even paying slight attention to right now is the likelihood of independents to actually go to the polls and if you can find a measurement of how motivated the 18-29 crowd is vote for biden.
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18-29 is the #1 Target audience for MSNBC and CNN, aside from old grey spinsters and their cats.
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18-29 only vote to fit in with their friends on Insta.
They have zero skin in the game, at that point. -
Here are your choices. It's not that hard.
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Is that Cornpop going thug?Dude61 said:Here are your choices. It's not that hard.
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That is why you see rat governors claiming that they are going to use coronavirus as the excuse to send every single voter a mail in ballot.Pitchfork51 said:
18-29 not motivatedBendintheriver said:I stopped predicting elections after the Trump landslide. I was so wrong on that one and on Romney as well. Having been involved in polling I can tell you that double digit right now means absolutely 0. There were quite a few that had The Bitch winning in double digits and that was the night of the election. The only two things that are worth even paying slight attention to right now is the likelihood of independents to actually go to the polls and if you can find a measurement of how motivated the 18-29 crowd is vote for biden.
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No way. Take your screen shot.thechatch said:Double digit deficit in the polls to a guy that is entering dementia and doesn’t even have to leave his basement to increase that margin in campaign season. The senate is probably gone too. Biden is gonna win and get led around by the nose by whichever “minority” woman he gets told to name for VP.
Kiss the tax cuts goodbye and get ready for SIT in Washington. Get ready for 50% federal income tax for top earners. Get ready to bow solemnly to our chicom rulers in global politics and trade.
Grab all the screenshots you want. We are staring Joe Biden for 4 years and then Liz Warren, Stacy Abrams, or Amy K for another 8. It’s going to be a long cold winter after we all emerge from our COVID basements. -
RCP Spread has Biden ahead about 5.5 - don't know where your double digits number is coming from. MOE is probably +- 3.5 on these kinds of polls, assuming they reach an accurate sample (which they don't, but I'll get to that).
But as we saw in 2016, the national vote isn't what matters. It's the battleground states, which are the reason Trump won in 2016 in the first place (shoutout to Hillary for not even trying in Michigan and Wisconsin, whoopsie).
In Wisconsin, the current spread is Biden +2.7. Trump won by about 23,000 votes and .77 percent in 2016.
In Michigan, where Trump won by about 11,000 votes and .23%, the spread is Biden +5.5.
In Florida, where Trump won by 113,000 votes and 1.2%, the spread is Biden +3.3.
In North Carolina, where Trump won by 173,000 votes and 3.66%, the spread is Trump +1.
In Pennsylvania, where Trump won by 44,000 votes and .72%, the spread is Biden +6.5.
In Arizona, where Trump won by 89,000 votes and 3.5% (!!!), the spread is Biden +4.0 (easily the worst indicator for Trump. A state he solidly carried, and Biden is leading past the MOE).
In Minnesota, where Clinton won by 1.5% and 45,000 votes, there isn't a spread, but Biden looks to be ahead by about 5 points or so.
This data is not strong for Trump, but you also have to remember that the polling didn't look great for Trump in 2016, either. So let's look at it.
538, the most accurate polling company, had Trump winning about 29% of simulated elections in 2016. The reason was that the margins in all of the swing states that he won (outside of Wisconsin) gave him a reasonable shot. If a few of these fell his way, he would win - turns out all of them fell his way.
And, even Nate Silver admitted that he had allowed some subjectivity into his model because he didn't think Trump could win. So Trump's margins were a lot better than some national polls said they looked.
It's been covered pretty thoroughly that Trump voters are a little bit less likely to say their preferences for polling, which results in a slight underestimate of Trump's position. It's not as big as some would have you believe, but it can be as large as a percentage point.
If we give Trump +1 in every state, only Michigan and Pennslyvania fall outside of the typical MOE. That's 36 electoral votes to Biden. Reminder that there were 7 faithless electors in 2016 - Trump's total by win was 306, and Clinton's was 232. That gives Trump 270-Biden 268, assuming nothing changes.
But it isn't that simple.
Campaigning hasn't even started yet. Biden is very, very vulnerable to lots of attacks - the Democratic party base simply is not unified under Biden the way the Republican party is under Trump. If the exact same amount of attack ads ran on Biden as they did on Trump, Biden would lose more voters.
Based on how the Democratic primary played out in terms of Biden losing steam, it's pretty safe to think the margin will be under 3 points by election day.
In other words, although Biden will probably win the popular vote based on what we see right now, the electoral college will once again likely play in Trump's favor.
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Polls work great if you only call one side.
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My eyes have rolled at poles of all shapes and sizes since 2016. Maybe they can find an algorithm to control for what happens when the booth curtain closes and people can vote their minds rather than what they can get away with saying aloud in their social circles.
And we’re a long way from November. Still VPs to pick. Lots of campaigning to do, and as much time as there is for Trump to show his ass, it’s very possible we see Biden have a medical event on the debate stage or elsewhere.
Great TV ahead. -
As things open and Biden is forced to come out of hiding more and more he's going to drop.
Like the "most hated president of all time" supposedly causes the worst crisis of our lives and it's basically even?
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I don’t think many 18-29 actually watch the news. Maybe a couple snippets on Twitter, but they don’t even have cable.TurdBomber said:18-29 is the #1 Target audience for MSNBC and CNN, aside from old grey spinsters and their cats.
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True. Which is why their ratings are shit.RoadDawg55 said:
I don’t think many 18-29 actually watch the news. Maybe a couple snippets on Twitter, but they don’t even have cable.TurdBomber said:18-29 is the #1 Target audience for MSNBC and CNN, aside from old grey spinsters and their cats.
