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WestlinnDuck
Member Posts: 14,021
in Tug Tavern
So, we have destroyed the US economy to save a few thousand lives? Now projected for 68,000 dead. Almost all elderly with underlying medical conditions. Basically, swine flu numbers. Thank god we had barry to safely navigate us through that. Swine flu did target young people. But right now we are having a "debate" whether we can open up colleges in the fall. Apparently higher education isn't worth much. Apparently, the fact that for people in their late teens and early 20s, that they are either immune to the chicom crud or have mild symptoms is not yet news. I love that leftards can't stand the fact that her hotness, the governor of South Dakota didn't shut the state down because it made New Yorkers feel bad was a national disgrace.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/coronavirus-in-five-states-3.php
CORONAVIRUS IN FIVE STATES (3)
The University of Washington’s IHME COVID-19 model is the one most widely cited by policymakers and journalists. Superficially, that model has been relatively stable, with its total projected fatalities nationwide from the Wuhan virus declining from the mid-80,000 range to its current faux precise level of 67,641, which is probably a pretty good guess–one that you or I might have made–based on experience to date.
But if we look at the IHME model’s projections for individual states, we see capricious changes that cast serious doubt on whether the model is based on any coherent scientific principles at all. I have focused on the five states of the Upper Midwest–Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, North Dakota and South Dakota–in posts dated April 11 and April 15. As a result I have a record of IHME’s projections for those five states on those dates, which is significant because, as best I can tell, each version of the IHME model’s output is sent to the memory hole when it is updated.
So here are the wildly divergent fatality numbers the IHME model has predicted for the Upper Midwestern states, on each of three dates, with the most recent update coming on April 22.
...
South Dakota:
April 11: 356
April 15: 181
April 22: 93
As of April 21, according to IHME’s chart, South Dakota had recorded a whopping 8 deaths. As with North Dakota, IHME predicts the epidemic will get underway any day now, only at a much lower level–around 1/4 of what was predicted less than two weeks ago. Once again, a South Dakota policymaker would have been foolish to make decisions in reliance on the IHME model, or any other model I have seen.
Liberals have viciously attacked South Dakota’s governor Kristi Noem because she refused to implement a shutdown order as most governors have done. She said that she has confidence that South Dakotans are competent to protect themselves–which, evidently, they are. The Washington Post attempted an absurd smear against Governor Noem based on the fact that workers at a pork processing plant in Sioux Falls had tested positive for COVID-19, like workers in pretty much every pork plant across the U.S. The same thing happened in a pork processing plant in Minnesota, where our Democratic governor has implemented a particularly harsh shutdown order, but the Washington Post took no notice, nor did other national media outlets. As usual, it is all about the narrative, and drive-by press coverage is the norm.
The reality, which the Washington Post has no desire to report, is that South Dakota is perhaps the nation’s best-governed state. This has actually caused problems for the state in dealing with the federal government’s bailout. Governor Noem explains in this video clip: South Dakota has a fully funded pension plan, no income tax, no corporate tax, a AAA credit rating, and a balanced budget.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/coronavirus-in-five-states-3.php
CORONAVIRUS IN FIVE STATES (3)
The University of Washington’s IHME COVID-19 model is the one most widely cited by policymakers and journalists. Superficially, that model has been relatively stable, with its total projected fatalities nationwide from the Wuhan virus declining from the mid-80,000 range to its current faux precise level of 67,641, which is probably a pretty good guess–one that you or I might have made–based on experience to date.
But if we look at the IHME model’s projections for individual states, we see capricious changes that cast serious doubt on whether the model is based on any coherent scientific principles at all. I have focused on the five states of the Upper Midwest–Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, North Dakota and South Dakota–in posts dated April 11 and April 15. As a result I have a record of IHME’s projections for those five states on those dates, which is significant because, as best I can tell, each version of the IHME model’s output is sent to the memory hole when it is updated.
So here are the wildly divergent fatality numbers the IHME model has predicted for the Upper Midwestern states, on each of three dates, with the most recent update coming on April 22.
...
South Dakota:
April 11: 356
April 15: 181
April 22: 93
As of April 21, according to IHME’s chart, South Dakota had recorded a whopping 8 deaths. As with North Dakota, IHME predicts the epidemic will get underway any day now, only at a much lower level–around 1/4 of what was predicted less than two weeks ago. Once again, a South Dakota policymaker would have been foolish to make decisions in reliance on the IHME model, or any other model I have seen.
Liberals have viciously attacked South Dakota’s governor Kristi Noem because she refused to implement a shutdown order as most governors have done. She said that she has confidence that South Dakotans are competent to protect themselves–which, evidently, they are. The Washington Post attempted an absurd smear against Governor Noem based on the fact that workers at a pork processing plant in Sioux Falls had tested positive for COVID-19, like workers in pretty much every pork plant across the U.S. The same thing happened in a pork processing plant in Minnesota, where our Democratic governor has implemented a particularly harsh shutdown order, but the Washington Post took no notice, nor did other national media outlets. As usual, it is all about the narrative, and drive-by press coverage is the norm.
The reality, which the Washington Post has no desire to report, is that South Dakota is perhaps the nation’s best-governed state. This has actually caused problems for the state in dealing with the federal government’s bailout. Governor Noem explains in this video clip: South Dakota has a fully funded pension plan, no income tax, no corporate tax, a AAA credit rating, and a balanced budget.
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