Nate's initial thoughts on the Mueller reports
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/first-thoughts-on-the-political-fallout-of-the-mueller-report/
Comments
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If maybe however but still we think blah blah blah
Why does anyone take this guy seriously anymore? -
Who needs data and statistics? Trump is exonerated! Now let’s get to the bottom of things.RaceBannon said:If maybe however but still we think blah blah blah
Why does anyone take this guy seriously anymore? -
Hillary is president. HTHCirrhosisDawg said:
Who needs data and statistics? Trump is exonerated! Now let’s get to the bottom of things.RaceBannon said:If maybe however but still we think blah blah blah
Why does anyone take this guy seriously anymore?
Data and statistics -
Nate silver was wrong potd!RaceBannon said:
Hillary is president. HTHCirrhosisDawg said:
Who needs data and statistics? Trump is exonerated! Now let’s get to the bottom of things.RaceBannon said:If maybe however but still we think blah blah blah
Why does anyone take this guy seriously anymore?
Data and statistics -
What was there to disagree with in his piece? He's in the prediction bidness and says Trump is about 50/50 to get reelected which is way higher odds than what you hear coming from the left wing punditry. And as I've stated ad nausea here, he gave Trump a 33% chance of winning on election day in Nov 2016 which was a very realistic shot of it happening which no one on the left believed.RaceBannon said:If maybe however but still we think blah blah blah
Why does anyone take this guy seriously anymore? -
There was nothing to disagree with because there was nothing there
50 - 50 shot huh? Whoa -
He really goes out on a limb there.RaceBannon said:There was nothing to disagree with because there was nothing there
50 - 50 shot huh? Whoa -
Noble effort yellow.YellowSnow said:
What was there to disagree with in his piece? He's in the prediction bidness and says Trump is about 50/50 to get reelected which is way higher odds than what you hear coming from the left wing punditry. And as I've stated ad nausea here, he gave Trump a 33% chance of winning on election day in Nov 2016 which was a very realistic shot of it happening which no one on the left believed.RaceBannon said:If maybe however but still we think blah blah blah
Why does anyone take this guy seriously anymore?
You have a lot of confidence in your readers. -
Anyone seeing this as anything but completely devastating to the Dems needs their head examined
Even the "HE WASNT EXONERATED WAIT FOR THE REPORT" people don't really believe it -
So as the Oracle of Inland Empire @RaceBannon what odds do you give on Trump's reelection?RaceBannon said:There was nothing to disagree with because there was nothing there
50 - 50 shot huh? Whoa -
He has already wonYellowSnow said:
So as the Oracle of Inland Empire @RaceBannon what odds do you give on Trump's reelection?RaceBannon said:There was nothing to disagree with because there was nothing there
50 - 50 shot huh? Whoa -
Might as well not even play the election.
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I'm still not sure where to price your stock as predictor because I think there was a hell of lot of luck involved in your calling 2016 FIRST back in 2015. ATBSJBS, I will give credit where credit is due if you go 2 for 2.RaceBannon said:
He has already wonYellowSnow said:
So as the Oracle of Inland Empire @RaceBannon what odds do you give on Trump's reelection?RaceBannon said:There was nothing to disagree with because there was nothing there
50 - 50 shot huh? Whoa -
Prior to Sunday all of the early polling shows Trump with a tough road to hoe in Michigan and Wisconsin. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/
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Unless the incumbent fucks up the economy odds are they stay in. That's without considering the opposition or color of the party.
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The yield curve was inverted at the opening today bot. I am sure a rationalist and quantitative economist like yourself has something to say about that.UW_Doog_Bot said:Unless the incumbent fucks up the economy odds are they stay in. That's without considering the opposition or color of the party.
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I think we are in for a cool down but not a recession at present. Rates went up and put a tamper on growth and now here we are. It will be interesting to see what the Fed decides to do next. That's my not-expert opinion anyways.CirrhosisDawg said:
The yield curve was inverted at the opening today bot. I am sure a rationalist and quantitative economist like yourself has something to say about that.UW_Doog_Bot said:Unless the incumbent fucks up the economy odds are they stay in. That's without considering the opposition or color of the party.
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Yeah. No big deal. A cooling down. It’s not like an inverted yield curve has ever preceded a recession or anything. I’ll wait for bot to weigh in.UW_Doog_Bot said:
I think we are in for a cool down but not a recession at present. Rates went up and put a tamper on growth and now here we are. It will be interesting to see what the Fed decides to do next. That's my not-expert opinion anyways.CirrhosisDawg said:
The yield curve was inverted at the opening today bot. I am sure a rationalist and quantitative economist like yourself has something to say about that.UW_Doog_Bot said:Unless the incumbent fucks up the economy odds are they stay in. That's without considering the opposition or color of the party.
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Technically it's when the two year goes above the 10 year that triggers a recession in 12-18 months. Right now it's just the 3 month t bill over the 10 year.CirrhosisDawg said:
Yeah. No big deal. A cooling down. It’s not like an inverted yield curve has ever preceded a recession or anything. I’ll wait for bot to weigh in.UW_Doog_Bot said:
I think we are in for a cool down but not a recession at present. Rates went up and put a tamper on growth and now here we are. It will be interesting to see what the Fed decides to do next. That's my not-expert opinion anyways.CirrhosisDawg said:
The yield curve was inverted at the opening today bot. I am sure a rationalist and quantitative economist like yourself has something to say about that.UW_Doog_Bot said:Unless the incumbent fucks up the economy odds are they stay in. That's without considering the opposition or color of the party.
That being said it's like clockwork. Except once in the 1990s. But it was just for a couple days. A prolonged yield curve inversion will mean a recession. -
I expect you've already sold off the majority of your assets and/or taken out options in anticipation of the downturn. What's your prediction so we can bump this later when you are right?CirrhosisDawg said:
Yeah. No big deal. A cooling down. It’s not like an inverted yield curve has ever preceded a recession or anything. I’ll wait for bot to weigh in.UW_Doog_Bot said:
I think we are in for a cool down but not a recession at present. Rates went up and put a tamper on growth and now here we are. It will be interesting to see what the Fed decides to do next. That's my not-expert opinion anyways.CirrhosisDawg said:
The yield curve was inverted at the opening today bot. I am sure a rationalist and quantitative economist like yourself has something to say about that.UW_Doog_Bot said:Unless the incumbent fucks up the economy odds are they stay in. That's without considering the opposition or color of the party.
There's no uncertainty in predicting macro economics after all.
