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Nate's initial thoughts on the Mueller reports

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Comments

  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 116,442 Founders Club
    YellowSnow said:

    RaceBannon said:

    There was nothing to disagree with because there was nothing there

    50 - 50 shot huh? Whoa

    So as the Oracle of Inland Empire @RaceBannon what odds do you give on Trump's reelection?
    He has already won
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  • YellowSnow
    YellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 37,952 Founders Club
    RaceBannon said:

    YellowSnow said:

    RaceBannon said:

    There was nothing to disagree with because there was nothing there

    50 - 50 shot huh? Whoa

    So as the Oracle of Inland Empire @RaceBannon what odds do you give on Trump's reelection?
    He has already won
    I'm still not sure where to price your stock as predictor because I think there was a hell of lot of luck involved in your calling 2016 FIRST back in 2015. ATBSJBS, I will give credit where credit is due if you go 2 for 2.
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  • YellowSnow
    YellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 37,952 Founders Club
    Prior to Sunday all of the early polling shows Trump with a tough road to hoe in Michigan and Wisconsin. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/
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  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,765 Founders Club
    Unless the incumbent fucks up the economy odds are they stay in. That's without considering the opposition or color of the party.
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  • CirrhosisDawg
    CirrhosisDawg Member Posts: 6,390
    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    Unless the incumbent fucks up the economy odds are they stay in. That's without considering the opposition or color of the party.

    The yield curve was inverted at the opening today bot. I am sure a rationalist and quantitative economist like yourself has something to say about that.
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  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,765 Founders Club
    CirrhosisDawg said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    Unless the incumbent fucks up the economy odds are they stay in. That's without considering the opposition or color of the party.

    The yield curve was inverted at the opening today bot. I am sure a rationalist and quantitative economist like yourself has something to say about that.
    I think we are in for a cool down but not a recession at present. Rates went up and put a tamper on growth and now here we are. It will be interesting to see what the Fed decides to do next. That's my not-expert opinion anyways.
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  • CirrhosisDawg
    CirrhosisDawg Member Posts: 6,390
    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    CirrhosisDawg said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    Unless the incumbent fucks up the economy odds are they stay in. That's without considering the opposition or color of the party.

    The yield curve was inverted at the opening today bot. I am sure a rationalist and quantitative economist like yourself has something to say about that.
    I think we are in for a cool down but not a recession at present. Rates went up and put a tamper on growth and now here we are. It will be interesting to see what the Fed decides to do next. That's my not-expert opinion anyways.
    Yeah. No big deal. A cooling down. It’s not like an inverted yield curve has ever preceded a recession or anything. I’ll wait for bot to weigh in.
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  • 2001400ex
    2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457
    CirrhosisDawg said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    CirrhosisDawg said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    Unless the incumbent fucks up the economy odds are they stay in. That's without considering the opposition or color of the party.

    The yield curve was inverted at the opening today bot. I am sure a rationalist and quantitative economist like yourself has something to say about that.
    I think we are in for a cool down but not a recession at present. Rates went up and put a tamper on growth and now here we are. It will be interesting to see what the Fed decides to do next. That's my not-expert opinion anyways.
    Yeah. No big deal. A cooling down. It’s not like an inverted yield curve has ever preceded a recession or anything. I’ll wait for bot to weigh in.
    Technically it's when the two year goes above the 10 year that triggers a recession in 12-18 months. Right now it's just the 3 month t bill over the 10 year.

    That being said it's like clockwork. Except once in the 1990s. But it was just for a couple days. A prolonged yield curve inversion will mean a recession.
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  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,765 Founders Club
    CirrhosisDawg said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    CirrhosisDawg said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    Unless the incumbent fucks up the economy odds are they stay in. That's without considering the opposition or color of the party.

    The yield curve was inverted at the opening today bot. I am sure a rationalist and quantitative economist like yourself has something to say about that.
    I think we are in for a cool down but not a recession at present. Rates went up and put a tamper on growth and now here we are. It will be interesting to see what the Fed decides to do next. That's my not-expert opinion anyways.
    Yeah. No big deal. A cooling down. It’s not like an inverted yield curve has ever preceded a recession or anything. I’ll wait for bot to weigh in.
    I expect you've already sold off the majority of your assets and/or taken out options in anticipation of the downturn. What's your prediction so we can bump this later when you are right?
    There's no uncertainty in predicting macro economics after all.

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