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Pete's transition class fupdate
Comments
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FremontTroll said:
I mostly agree but juat to temper the enthusiasm slightly there was likely a large heaping of good luck involved in the outcomes for 2014 kids since 2015 and 2016 aren't going to come anywhere close.Dennis_DeYoung said:Too much Sosebee.
But still, holy shit. If we’ve done this well with this class, the mind boggles of where we’ll be once our good classes take root.
One season later, sticking with this take.FremontTroll said:
4 maybe 5 draft picks from 2015 IMO and only one likely 1st-2nd rounder. Probably similar outcome for 2016.dnc said:
2015 isn't going to be as good but will probably have 6 or 7 draft picks when all is said and done, that's not a terrible class.FremontTroll said:
I mostly agree but juat to temper the enthusiasm slightly there was likely a large heaping of good luck involved in the outcomes for 2014 kids since 2015 and 2016 aren't going to come anywhere close.Dennis_DeYoung said:Too much Sosebee.
But still, holy shit. If we’ve done this well with this class, the mind boggles of where we’ll be once our good classes take root.
Adams - likely first rounder
Miller - who knows but wouldn't shock me to see him day two
Joyner - will get drafted
Browning - probably late round
Gaskin - 4th or 5th round maybe?
BBK - first rounder!!! (jk)
Tevis - will have a career
2016 is still really early to judge. After two seasons on campus you wouldn't have predicted Pettis to get picked, let alone 2nd round. Definitely wouldn't have expected Dissly to get picked either. LIPO. But here's where we're at right now:
Murphy - high early entry guy
Rapp - high early entry guy
Wattenburg - probably drafted
Levi - probably drafted
And those are classes that rated much higher than 2014 and classes that CP had far more time to put together.
CP v.1 benefited from an all-time great (and lucky) transition class that we couldn't expect to duplicate even with more time to scout, build relationships, and put together a well-balanced class.
Unless we leveled up our recruiting. Which started in 2017 and really kicked into high gear in 2018 and 2019.
CP v.2 beta version will be released in 2019 led by Eason, Bryant, Ahmed, Jones, Taylor, Molden, Kirkland and the 2018 kids coming off redshirts. -
Yep, your skepticism was well placed.FremontTroll said:FremontTroll said:
I mostly agree but juat to temper the enthusiasm slightly there was likely a large heaping of good luck involved in the outcomes for 2014 kids since 2015 and 2016 aren't going to come anywhere close.Dennis_DeYoung said:Too much Sosebee.
But still, holy shit. If we’ve done this well with this class, the mind boggles of where we’ll be once our good classes take root.
One season later, sticking with this take.FremontTroll said:
4 maybe 5 draft picks from 2015 IMO and only one likely 1st-2nd rounder. Probably similar outcome for 2016.dnc said:
2015 isn't going to be as good but will probably have 6 or 7 draft picks when all is said and done, that's not a terrible class.FremontTroll said:
I mostly agree but juat to temper the enthusiasm slightly there was likely a large heaping of good luck involved in the outcomes for 2014 kids since 2015 and 2016 aren't going to come anywhere close.Dennis_DeYoung said:Too much Sosebee.
But still, holy shit. If we’ve done this well with this class, the mind boggles of where we’ll be once our good classes take root.
Adams - likely first rounder
Miller - who knows but wouldn't shock me to see him day two
Joyner - will get drafted
Browning - probably late round
Gaskin - 4th or 5th round maybe?
BBK - first rounder!!! (jk)
Tevis - will have a career
2016 is still really early to judge. After two seasons on campus you wouldn't have predicted Pettis to get picked, let alone 2nd round. Definitely wouldn't have expected Dissly to get picked either. LIPO. But here's where we're at right now:
Murphy - high early entry guy
Rapp - high early entry guy
Wattenburg - probably drafted
Levi - probably drafted
And those are classes that rated much higher than 2014 and classes that CP had far more time to put together.
CP v.1 benefited from an all-time great (and lucky) transition class that we couldn't expect to duplicate even with more time to scout, build relationships, and put together a well-balanced class.
Unless we leveled up our recruiting. Which started in 2017 and really kicked into high gear in 2018 and 2019.
CP v.2 beta version will be released in 2019 led by Eason, Bryant, Ahmed, Jones, Taylor, Molden, Kirkland and the 2018 kids coming off redshirts. -
Did you mean to type Miller? He might have the measurables the NFL is looking for (other than weight), but he's a day 3 pick.SyphilisButter said:Browning won't get drafted and Miller is 1st-2nd round easily if healthy
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I think you need to factor in that in 2015 we took 25 guys and in 2016 we only took 17. From a hit rate % 2016 has a crazy # of draftees.HillsboroDuck said:
Revisiting this:dnc said:
2015 isn't going to be as good but will probably have 6 or 7 draft picks when all is said and done, that's not a terrible class.FremontTroll said:
I mostly agree but juat to temper the enthusiasm slightly there was likely a large heaping of good luck involved in the outcomes for 2014 kids since 2015 and 2016 aren't going to come anywhere close.Dennis_DeYoung said:Too much Sosebee.
But still, holy shit. If we’ve done this well with this class, the mind boggles of where we’ll be once our good classes take root.
Adams - likely first rounder
Miller - who knows but wouldn't shock me to see him day two
Joyner - will get drafted
Browning - probably late round
Gaskin - 4th or 5th round maybe?
BBK - first rounder!!! (jk)
Tevis - will have a career
2016 is still really early to judge. After two seasons on campus you wouldn't have predicted Pettis to get picked, let alone 2nd round. Definitely wouldn't have expected Dissly to get picked either. LIPO. But here's where we're at right now:
Murphy - high early entry guy
Rapp - high early entry guy
Wattenburg - probably drafted
Levi - probably drafted
2015 class
Adams - Still a first rounder if his health allows it
Miller - still think he gets picked, won't be day two
Joyner - RIP
Browning - nope
Gaskin - will get picked
BBK - sneaks into day 2 IMO
Tevis - probably not
2016 class
Murphy - first rounder
Rapp - first or second rounder
Wattenburg - still think he gets drafted
Levi - definitely think he gets drafted
Add:
2015
Hilbers - Gonna say yes. Biggest shock in the class?
Beavers - outside shot, needs to stay healthy and a big step forward
Pounds - no
Baccellia - no
Warren - no
Carty - lol
Clark - no
Roberts - no (biggest disappointment in the class?)
Scrempos - no
2016
Harris - will get drafted
Kizer (greyshirt) - probably yes because WTEU
Fuller - think he gets drafted late
Benning - outside shot, needs a big step forward
Wellington - outside shot, needs a big step forward
Myles Bryant* - probably getting picked
McGrew - not likely
Pleasant - probably not but possible
Chin - Chinconceivable
So it definitely looks like 2014 was better than 2015 or 2016, with 2016 probably going down as Pete's worst class at UW. And it will produce 6 or 7 draft picks. (I'll take 2015 over 2016 simply because you got four year starters at QB, RB and LT even though 2016 is probably a little better from a draft perspective). -
We? are going to fuck some people up.Dennis_DeYoung said:The correlation between this class’ recruiting rankings and their Jesse Collier outcome is probably very high.
So, basically, the idea is that when Pete has even decent recruits, they generally end up being big time.
Now ready for some good news?
Every player we got in 2018 was rated higher than the 5th best player we got in 2014.
I repeat, the lowest rated player in our 2018 class would’ve been 5th in 2018. Think about that.
It bodes well. -
Excellent pointUW_Doog_Bot said:
I think you need to factor in that in 2015 we took 25 guys and in 2016 we only took 17. From a hit rate % 2016 has a crazy # of draftees.HillsboroDuck said:
Revisiting this:dnc said:
2015 isn't going to be as good but will probably have 6 or 7 draft picks when all is said and done, that's not a terrible class.FremontTroll said:
I mostly agree but juat to temper the enthusiasm slightly there was likely a large heaping of good luck involved in the outcomes for 2014 kids since 2015 and 2016 aren't going to come anywhere close.Dennis_DeYoung said:Too much Sosebee.
But still, holy shit. If we’ve done this well with this class, the mind boggles of where we’ll be once our good classes take root.
Adams - likely first rounder
Miller - who knows but wouldn't shock me to see him day two
Joyner - will get drafted
Browning - probably late round
Gaskin - 4th or 5th round maybe?
BBK - first rounder!!! (jk)
Tevis - will have a career
2016 is still really early to judge. After two seasons on campus you wouldn't have predicted Pettis to get picked, let alone 2nd round. Definitely wouldn't have expected Dissly to get picked either. LIPO. But here's where we're at right now:
Murphy - high early entry guy
Rapp - high early entry guy
Wattenburg - probably drafted
Levi - probably drafted
2015 class
Adams - Still a first rounder if his health allows it
Miller - still think he gets picked, won't be day two
Joyner - RIP
Browning - nope
Gaskin - will get picked
BBK - sneaks into day 2 IMO
Tevis - probably not
2016 class
Murphy - first rounder
Rapp - first or second rounder
Wattenburg - still think he gets drafted
Levi - definitely think he gets drafted
Add:
2015
Hilbers - Gonna say yes. Biggest shock in the class?
Beavers - outside shot, needs to stay healthy and a big step forward
Pounds - no
Baccellia - no
Warren - no
Carty - lol
Clark - no
Roberts - no (biggest disappointment in the class?)
Scrempos - no
2016
Harris - will get drafted
Kizer (greyshirt) - probably yes because WTEU
Fuller - think he gets drafted late
Benning - outside shot, needs a big step forward
Wellington - outside shot, needs a big step forward
Myles Bryant* - probably getting picked
McGrew - not likely
Pleasant - probably not but possible
Chin - Chinconceivable
So it definitely looks like 2014 was better than 2015 or 2016, with 2016 probably going down as Pete's worst class at UW. And it will produce 6 or 7 draft picks. (I'll take 2015 over 2016 simply because you got four year starters at QB, RB and LT even though 2016 is probably a little better from a draft perspective). -
Updating this trend for @Dennis_DeYoung :Dennis_DeYoung said:The correlation between this class’ recruiting rankings and their Jesse Collier outcome is probably very high.
So, basically, the idea is that when Pete has even decent recruits, they generally end up being big time.
Now ready for some good news?
Every player we got in 2018 was rated higher than the 5th best player we got in 2014.
I repeat, the lowest rated player in our 2018 class would’ve been 5th in 2018. Think about that.
It bodes well.
Every player we got in 2019 was rated higher than the 4th best player we got in 2014 (except Tuputala who was criminally underrated, and Tim Horn who is a kicker).
I repeat, the lowest rated player in our 2019 class would have been 4th in 2014.
-
Excellent Pointdflea said:
We? are going to fuck some people up.Dennis_DeYoung said:The correlation between this class’ recruiting rankings and their Jesse Collier outcome is probably very high.
So, basically, the idea is that when Pete has even decent recruits, they generally end up being big time.
Now ready for some good news?
Every player we got in 2018 was rated higher than the 5th best player we got in 2014.
I repeat, the lowest rated player in our 2018 class would’ve been 5th in 2018. Think about that.
It bodes well. -
Even if Adams plays healthy all of 2019, his prior injury history will keep him out of the first two rounds.HillsboroDuck said:
Revisiting this:dnc said:
2015 isn't going to be as good but will probably have 6 or 7 draft picks when all is said and done, that's not a terrible class.FremontTroll said:
I mostly agree but juat to temper the enthusiasm slightly there was likely a large heaping of good luck involved in the outcomes for 2014 kids since 2015 and 2016 aren't going to come anywhere close.Dennis_DeYoung said:Too much Sosebee.
But still, holy shit. If we’ve done this well with this class, the mind boggles of where we’ll be once our good classes take root.
Adams - likely first rounder
Miller - who knows but wouldn't shock me to see him day two
Joyner - will get drafted
Browning - probably late round
Gaskin - 4th or 5th round maybe?
BBK - first rounder!!! (jk)
Tevis - will have a career
2016 is still really early to judge. After two seasons on campus you wouldn't have predicted Pettis to get picked, let alone 2nd round. Definitely wouldn't have expected Dissly to get picked either. LIPO. But here's where we're at right now:
Murphy - high early entry guy
Rapp - high early entry guy
Wattenburg - probably drafted
Levi - probably drafted
2015 class
Adams - Still a first rounder if his health allows it
Miller - still think he gets picked, won't be day two
Joyner - RIP
Browning - nope
Gaskin - will get picked
BBK - sneaks into day 2 IMO
Tevis - probably not
2016 class
Murphy - first rounder
Rapp - first or second rounder
Wattenburg - still think he gets drafted
Levi - definitely think he gets drafted
Add:
2015
Hilbers - Gonna say yes. Biggest shock in the class?
Beavers - outside shot, needs to stay healthy and a big step forward
Pounds - no
Baccellia - no
Warren - no
Carty - lol
Clark - no
Roberts - no (biggest disappointment in the class?)
Scrempos - no
2016
Harris - will get drafted
Kizer (greyshirt) - probably yes because WTEU
Fuller - think he gets drafted late
Benning - outside shot, needs a big step forward
Wellington - outside shot, needs a big step forward
Myles Bryant* - probably getting picked
McGrew - not likely
Pleasant - probably not but possible
Chin - Chinconceivable
So it definitely looks like 2014 was better than 2015 or 2016, with 2016 probably going down as Pete's worst class at UW. And it will produce 6 or 7 draft picks. (I'll take 2015 over 2016 simply because you got four year starters at QB, RB and LT even though 2016 is probably a little better from a draft perspective). -
Naw basey, they have the best drugs in the NFL. Shits big business so as long as they aren’t “PED’s” or narcotics, they’ll find a way to get a few good years outta him before he’s permently in a wheel chair.Baseman said:
Even if Adams plays healthy all of 2019, his prior injury history will keep him out of the first two rounds.HillsboroDuck said:
Revisiting this:dnc said:
2015 isn't going to be as good but will probably have 6 or 7 draft picks when all is said and done, that's not a terrible class.FremontTroll said:
I mostly agree but juat to temper the enthusiasm slightly there was likely a large heaping of good luck involved in the outcomes for 2014 kids since 2015 and 2016 aren't going to come anywhere close.Dennis_DeYoung said:Too much Sosebee.
But still, holy shit. If we’ve done this well with this class, the mind boggles of where we’ll be once our good classes take root.
Adams - likely first rounder
Miller - who knows but wouldn't shock me to see him day two
Joyner - will get drafted
Browning - probably late round
Gaskin - 4th or 5th round maybe?
BBK - first rounder!!! (jk)
Tevis - will have a career
2016 is still really early to judge. After two seasons on campus you wouldn't have predicted Pettis to get picked, let alone 2nd round. Definitely wouldn't have expected Dissly to get picked either. LIPO. But here's where we're at right now:
Murphy - high early entry guy
Rapp - high early entry guy
Wattenburg - probably drafted
Levi - probably drafted
2015 class
Adams - Still a first rounder if his health allows it
Miller - still think he gets picked, won't be day two
Joyner - RIP
Browning - nope
Gaskin - will get picked
BBK - sneaks into day 2 IMO
Tevis - probably not
2016 class
Murphy - first rounder
Rapp - first or second rounder
Wattenburg - still think he gets drafted
Levi - definitely think he gets drafted
Add:
2015
Hilbers - Gonna say yes. Biggest shock in the class?
Beavers - outside shot, needs to stay healthy and a big step forward
Pounds - no
Baccellia - no
Warren - no
Carty - lol
Clark - no
Roberts - no (biggest disappointment in the class?)
Scrempos - no
2016
Harris - will get drafted
Kizer (greyshirt) - probably yes because WTEU
Fuller - think he gets drafted late
Benning - outside shot, needs a big step forward
Wellington - outside shot, needs a big step forward
Myles Bryant* - probably getting picked
McGrew - not likely
Pleasant - probably not but possible
Chin - Chinconceivable
So it definitely looks like 2014 was better than 2015 or 2016, with 2016 probably going down as Pete's worst class at UW. And it will produce 6 or 7 draft picks. (I'll take 2015 over 2016 simply because you got four year starters at QB, RB and LT even though 2016 is probably a little better from a draft perspective).
If he’s all conference I call 2nd if not 1st round. All American is 1st for sure. This is me not knowing what next years OL draft class will look like. -
It sucks but Adams will forever be a liability waiting to happen—not a player an NFL team drafts with coveted first or second round picks, regardless of need. It’s not just Tray’s knee, it’s his back that will give teams pause—and rightfully so. At his size his projected NFL shelf life is on par with Clay Helton’s HCing future—short.dirtysouwfdawg said:
Naw basey, they have the best drugs in the NFL. Shits big business so as long as they aren’t “PED’s” or narcotics, they’ll find a way to get a few good years outta him before he’s permently in a wheel chair.Baseman said:
Even if Adams plays healthy all of 2019, his prior injury history will keep him out of the first two rounds.HillsboroDuck said:
Revisiting this:dnc said:
2015 isn't going to be as good but will probably have 6 or 7 draft picks when all is said and done, that's not a terrible class.FremontTroll said:
I mostly agree but juat to temper the enthusiasm slightly there was likely a large heaping of good luck involved in the outcomes for 2014 kids since 2015 and 2016 aren't going to come anywhere close.Dennis_DeYoung said:Too much Sosebee.
But still, holy shit. If we’ve done this well with this class, the mind boggles of where we’ll be once our good classes take root.
Adams - likely first rounder
Miller - who knows but wouldn't shock me to see him day two
Joyner - will get drafted
Browning - probably late round
Gaskin - 4th or 5th round maybe?
BBK - first rounder!!! (jk)
Tevis - will have a career
2016 is still really early to judge. After two seasons on campus you wouldn't have predicted Pettis to get picked, let alone 2nd round. Definitely wouldn't have expected Dissly to get picked either. LIPO. But here's where we're at right now:
Murphy - high early entry guy
Rapp - high early entry guy
Wattenburg - probably drafted
Levi - probably drafted
2015 class
Adams - Still a first rounder if his health allows it
Miller - still think he gets picked, won't be day two
Joyner - RIP
Browning - nope
Gaskin - will get picked
BBK - sneaks into day 2 IMO
Tevis - probably not
2016 class
Murphy - first rounder
Rapp - first or second rounder
Wattenburg - still think he gets drafted
Levi - definitely think he gets drafted
Add:
2015
Hilbers - Gonna say yes. Biggest shock in the class?
Beavers - outside shot, needs to stay healthy and a big step forward
Pounds - no
Baccellia - no
Warren - no
Carty - lol
Clark - no
Roberts - no (biggest disappointment in the class?)
Scrempos - no
2016
Harris - will get drafted
Kizer (greyshirt) - probably yes because WTEU
Fuller - think he gets drafted late
Benning - outside shot, needs a big step forward
Wellington - outside shot, needs a big step forward
Myles Bryant* - probably getting picked
McGrew - not likely
Pleasant - probably not but possible
Chin - Chinconceivable
So it definitely looks like 2014 was better than 2015 or 2016, with 2016 probably going down as Pete's worst class at UW. And it will produce 6 or 7 draft picks. (I'll take 2015 over 2016 simply because you got four year starters at QB, RB and LT even though 2016 is probably a little better from a draft perspective).
If he’s all conference I call 2nd if not 1st round. All American is 1st for sure. This is me not knowing what next years OL draft class will look like. -
McGary and Sample exceeded expectations significantly. Looks like Johnson and JoJo might not quite get there. Still an amazing performance by this class.dnc said:With eight redshirt seniors left (and a redshirt junior), the story of Pete's first class is getting close to being complete.
Still at UW
Gaines
McGary
McIntosh
String Johnson
Bowman
James
Sample
Sosebee
Left as true juniors: Drafted
Baker
Jones
Left as redshirt junior: Drafted
Vea
Exhausted eligibility: Drafted
Pettis
Dissly
Exhausted eligibility: Not drafted
Vizcaino
Transferred: Other schools
KJCS
Dotson
Washington (dismissed)
Lenius (Dickey)
D Lewis (dismissed)
Transferred: Prison
Haie Dogg (dismissed) and Darren G
Medically retired
Turner
B Lewis
Bryant
Grayshirted and still here
Burleson
Summary: Lots of dreck at the bottom as you would expect from a transition class. The top of the class is incredible for a class rated 38 in the composite though. So far you have one first round pick, three second round picks, and a fourth rounder (and one of the second rounders would have been a first but for an injury incurred after finishing his play at UW). Then you have McGary, Gaines, Johnson and McIntosh who all have a decent shot at worst of getting drafted this year. When it's all said and done you're probably looking at 8 to 9 draft picks with probably at least 5 1st or 2nd day picks (assuming McGary goes top 3 rounds which he should).
I know we've discussed this class a lot but I haven't seen anyone sum it all for a couple years. The staff has gotten a highly impressive return on this class, which should make us? feel good about the future of the consistently higher rated classes they have gotten going forward from there.
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Update- 2015 class in the books. 3 late rounders.FremontTroll said:
4 maybe 5 draft picks from 2015 IMO and only one likely 1st-2nd rounder. Probably similar outcome for 2016.dnc said:
2015 isn't going to be as good but will probably have 6 or 7 draft picks when all is said and done, that's not a terrible class.FremontTroll said:
I mostly agree but juat to temper the enthusiasm slightly there was likely a large heaping of good luck involved in the outcomes for 2014 kids since 2015 and 2016 aren't going to come anywhere close.Dennis_DeYoung said:Too much Sosebee.
But still, holy shit. If we’ve done this well with this class, the mind boggles of where we’ll be once our good classes take root.
Adams - likely first rounder
Miller - who knows but wouldn't shock me to see him day two
Joyner - will get drafted
Browning - probably late round
Gaskin - 4th or 5th round maybe?
BBK - first rounder!!! (jk)
Tevis - will have a career
2016 is still really early to judge. After two seasons on campus you wouldn't have predicted Pettis to get picked, let alone 2nd round. Definitely wouldn't have expected Dissly to get picked either. LIPO. But here's where we're at right now:
Murphy - high early entry guy
Rapp - high early entry guy
Wattenburg - probably drafted
Levi - probably drafted
And those are classes that rated much higher than 2014 and classes that CP had far more time to put together.
2016- 3 picks so far, 2 of which were Round 2. A number of players still TBD, notably Levi.
2017- two of the assumed NFL talents left early and weren't drafted. Will probably end up with 4 guys drafted total.
2014 remains unmatched.
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FremontTroll said:
Update- 2015 class in the books. 3 late rounders.FremontTroll said:
4 maybe 5 draft picks from 2015 IMO and only one likely 1st-2nd rounder. Probably similar outcome for 2016.dnc said:
2015 isn't going to be as good but will probably have 6 or 7 draft picks when all is said and done, that's not a terrible class.FremontTroll said:
I mostly agree but juat to temper the enthusiasm slightly there was likely a large heaping of good luck involved in the outcomes for 2014 kids since 2015 and 2016 aren't going to come anywhere close.Dennis_DeYoung said:Too much Sosebee.
But still, holy shit. If we’ve done this well with this class, the mind boggles of where we’ll be once our good classes take root.
Adams - likely first rounder
Miller - who knows but wouldn't shock me to see him day two
Joyner - will get drafted
Browning - probably late round
Gaskin - 4th or 5th round maybe?
BBK - first rounder!!! (jk)
Tevis - will have a career
2016 is still really early to judge. After two seasons on campus you wouldn't have predicted Pettis to get picked, let alone 2nd round. Definitely wouldn't have expected Dissly to get picked either. LIPO. But here's where we're at right now:
Murphy - high early entry guy
Rapp - high early entry guy
Wattenburg - probably drafted
Levi - probably drafted
And those are classes that rated much higher than 2014 and classes that CP had far more time to put together.
2016- 3 picks so far, 2 of which were Round 2. A number of players still TBD, notably Levi.
2017- two of the assumed NFL talents left early and weren't drafted. Will probably end up with 4 guys drafted total.
2014 remains unmatched.
