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Teq's High Level 2019 Recruiting Class Review
Tequilla
Member Posts: 19,815
This isn't going to be talking about how great the class is, gushing about each individual player, etc. ... this is going to be looking at a couple of trends in the 2019 class and what it means to UW going forward:
2019 247 Composite Rankings
So we all SHOULD know that if you look at total rankings based off points that that's easy to skew based on size of class, etc. The best way to look at things in my mind is to look at average rating ... but even with that, you need to adjust based on taking out specialists because they are largely drains on the ranking.
UW's average rating was 90.4 for the class ... which was 15th overall.
For perspective, Texas A&M came in 10th at 90.8.
Alabama is head and shoulders above everybody (avg rating of 94.8) ... which isn't surprising. After that though, you start to see a slippery slope from there:
2. Georgia (93.3)
3. Texas (92.2)
4. Ohio St (91.9)
5. Oklahoma (91.6)
Moreover, the rankings in the top 15 are exactly what you'd expect with the SEC domination (7 of the top 15) ... besides those noted above and UW, the other non-SEC schools are Michigan, Penn St, Oregon, and Notre Dame.
The name missing on this list? That's Clemson ... who came in behind UW at 90.1.
What's the point to all of this? The conclusion is that the gap to get from where we are on the edge of the Top 15 to get into the Top 5 range isn't that vast. It's closing on a few high end players (got any ideas who we have realistic chances with that fit this???) ... it's bringing the top end of the class up with a few 5 stars and pulling up a bit the back end of the class. That's about it.
Top 300 National Recruiting Distribution
There was a narrative on ESPN about how the PAC 12 is in trouble because so many high end recruits were leaving California. Part of that narrative is true because USC and UCLA are so down. But the part of the narrative that isn't being talked about is how much of that talent was going to UW, Oregon, etc.
I went back and looked at the 2018 and 2019 recruiting classes and there are some themes that come out of it from a geographic standpoint:
It really becomes a material question for UW to answer in what they do going forward and how they climb the recruiting rankings:
1. Can they continue to win 20-30% of the Top 300 players on the West Coast?
2. Can the West Coast potentially increase its Top 300 players from 20% of the total to somewhere in the 25%+ range allowing for more players being available?
3. Can UW become enough of a national brand where they become a player for a high-end player in the nation to help supplement what's on the West Coast?
This is where a player like Gee Scott Jr is such a litmus test for UW. It's fine to pass on him for whatever reason. But he fits the criteria of the 60 players or so on the West Coast that on the surface are elite. For us to pass on him we damn well better be able to get guys like Johnny Wilson and/or Jalen McMillen to level up.
There will always probably be examples of where UW will take guys like Ngalu, Tupulata, etc. in a class that don't really stand out on the recruiting ranking front but turn out to be high end players. Dante fit that mold. Greg Gaines fit that mold. Development will ALWAYS MATTER for UW. But the key will always be making sure that our talent level is such that our development, etc. becomes a difference maker for us against the elite and not what gets us in a position of just being in the game which it has largely been over the last 3 years.
2019 247 Composite Rankings
So we all SHOULD know that if you look at total rankings based off points that that's easy to skew based on size of class, etc. The best way to look at things in my mind is to look at average rating ... but even with that, you need to adjust based on taking out specialists because they are largely drains on the ranking.
UW's average rating was 90.4 for the class ... which was 15th overall.
For perspective, Texas A&M came in 10th at 90.8.
Alabama is head and shoulders above everybody (avg rating of 94.8) ... which isn't surprising. After that though, you start to see a slippery slope from there:
2. Georgia (93.3)
3. Texas (92.2)
4. Ohio St (91.9)
5. Oklahoma (91.6)
Moreover, the rankings in the top 15 are exactly what you'd expect with the SEC domination (7 of the top 15) ... besides those noted above and UW, the other non-SEC schools are Michigan, Penn St, Oregon, and Notre Dame.
The name missing on this list? That's Clemson ... who came in behind UW at 90.1.
What's the point to all of this? The conclusion is that the gap to get from where we are on the edge of the Top 15 to get into the Top 5 range isn't that vast. It's closing on a few high end players (got any ideas who we have realistic chances with that fit this???) ... it's bringing the top end of the class up with a few 5 stars and pulling up a bit the back end of the class. That's about it.
Top 300 National Recruiting Distribution
There was a narrative on ESPN about how the PAC 12 is in trouble because so many high end recruits were leaving California. Part of that narrative is true because USC and UCLA are so down. But the part of the narrative that isn't being talked about is how much of that talent was going to UW, Oregon, etc.
I went back and looked at the 2018 and 2019 recruiting classes and there are some themes that come out of it from a geographic standpoint:
- Just over 50% of the entire Top 300 comes out of recruiting territories owned by the SEC and ACC (SEC includes Texas assuming that they went to Texas A&M and weren't part of the DFW metroplex)
- The PAC 12 geographic footprint accounts for approximately 20% of the Top 300 recruits ... which is more than the Big 10 and Big 12
- Whereas the Big 10 and Big 12 do a better job of recruiting outside of their geographic footprints, the PAC 12 is HORRENDOUSLY BAD at it ... which is what makes it so critical for the PAC 12 programs to keep their talent in the region
- In the 2018 class, the PAC 12 kept 84% of its Top 300 recruits inside of the PAC 12 ... it went down to 75% in 2019 thanks to Clay Helton being a disaster and Chip Kelly being asleep at the wheel it would appear
It really becomes a material question for UW to answer in what they do going forward and how they climb the recruiting rankings:
1. Can they continue to win 20-30% of the Top 300 players on the West Coast?
2. Can the West Coast potentially increase its Top 300 players from 20% of the total to somewhere in the 25%+ range allowing for more players being available?
3. Can UW become enough of a national brand where they become a player for a high-end player in the nation to help supplement what's on the West Coast?
This is where a player like Gee Scott Jr is such a litmus test for UW. It's fine to pass on him for whatever reason. But he fits the criteria of the 60 players or so on the West Coast that on the surface are elite. For us to pass on him we damn well better be able to get guys like Johnny Wilson and/or Jalen McMillen to level up.
There will always probably be examples of where UW will take guys like Ngalu, Tupulata, etc. in a class that don't really stand out on the recruiting ranking front but turn out to be high end players. Dante fit that mold. Greg Gaines fit that mold. Development will ALWAYS MATTER for UW. But the key will always be making sure that our talent level is such that our development, etc. becomes a difference maker for us against the elite and not what gets us in a position of just being in the game which it has largely been over the last 3 years.
Comments
I Like to think of real simple analogies that my little mind can handle it.
Level up the car. Get better chassis, components and materials.
Once you have a decent vehicle to drive then the driver and racing team matter more and more in the race for the championship.
There may be more on the topic coming later in the week ...
It was the old "Please talk more Tequilla" said no one ever.
your original poast was perfect for the topic...but note that it was excellent for an interesting topic. do not go that long or longer in responses to shit nobody but you and the person you're arguing with are interested in.
(Me, after witnessing a bowel movement as Tequilas GI doctor confirming his commitment to my recommendation of switching to a high soluble fiber plant based diet post diagnosis of severe anal warts).