5/ Not everyone will be infected, but the US is a big country, so on a population-level basis those numbers may look big; worth remembering that in terms of life-years lost the #covid19 figures will be smaller than annual road accidents and far smaller than overdoses...
I like the way he stated that. I'm going to post it and watch people's heads assplode saying I don't care about gramma. But it's amazing how fucking true it is. Shut down bars and restaurants and ban all smoking and see how many more "life years" we save. Don't see people lining up to shut down their neighbors business for that.
5/ Not everyone will be infected, but the US is a big country, so on a population-level basis those numbers may look big; worth remembering that in terms of life-years lost the #covid19 figures will be smaller than annual road accidents and far smaller than overdoses...
I like the way he stated that. I'm going to post it and watch people's heads assplode saying I don't care about gramma. But it's amazing how fucking true it is. Shut down bars and restaurants and ban all smoking and see how many more "life years" we save. Don't see people lining up to shut down their neighbors business for that.
5/ Not everyone will be infected, but the US is a big country, so on a population-level basis those numbers may look big; worth remembering that in terms of life-years lost the #covid19 figures will be smaller than annual road accidents and far smaller than overdoses...
I like the way he stated that. I'm going to post it and watch people's heads assplode saying I don't care about gramma. But it's amazing how fucking true it is. Shut down bars and restaurants and ban all smoking and see how many more "life years" we save. Don't see people lining up to shut down their neighbors business for that.
LIPO
Must not be living in Washington or "smoke free" California.
About 6 percent of Miami-Dade’s population — about 165,000 residents — have antibodies indicating a past infection by the novel coronavirus, dwarfing the state health department’s tally of about 10,600 cases, according to preliminary study results announced by University of Miami researchers Friday.
The study, spurred by Miami-Dade County officials, will be an ongoing weekly survey based on antibody testing — randomly selecting county residents to volunteer pinpricks of their blood to be screened for signs of a past COVID-19 infection, whether they had tested positive for the virus in the past or not. The goal is to measure the extent of infection in the community.
Friday’s results, based on two weeks of countywide antibody testing and about 1,400 participants, found that about half of the people who tested positive for antibodies reported no symptoms in the 14-17 days before being tested. If the trend holds, the findings could have major implications for understanding not only the number of people infected, but also how many have symptoms and, in turn, how the virus spreads.
Erin Kobetz, a University of Miami professor of medicine and public health sciences and the lead researcher on the project, presented the findings along with Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez during a press conference on Friday.
Gimenez said the survey’s early findings are informing the county’s decisions about how to allow limited openings of public areas, such as county parks. But he emphasized that social distancing measures will remain in place — and enforced by police and an army of 400 “event staff” members that Miami-Dade hired to ensure people follow the rules.
I might just request an antibody test myself. There was a couple of days in March where I had a minor head cold and sore threat.
Given the massive amount of younger people who have been infected with minor or no symptoms it would be nice to know.
I’d take one too if it wasn’t a pain in the ass. Costco lines are bad enough.
Wife and I's was easy, called yesterday and set an appointment today. Showed up to the appointment about 10 minutes early and waited in the car. They called us when they were ready and we were done in less than 10 minutes without seeing anyone other than the lab tech. She did butcher my blood draw and had to do it a second time in the other arm but other than that, meh.
Edit: also was totally covered despite being out of network. They even took my friend who is uninsured(lost his job/insurance) and helped him fill out some form to submit to medicare.
Do quick shutdowns work to fight the spread of Covid-19? Joe Malchow, Yinon Weiss and I wanted to find out. We set out to quantify how many deaths were caused by delayed shutdown orders on a state-by-state basis.
To normalize for an unambiguous comparison of deaths between states at the midpoint of an epidemic, we counted deaths per million population for a fixed 21-day period, measured from when the death rate first hit 1 per million—e.g.,‒three deaths in Iowa or 19 in New York state. A state’s “days to shutdown” was the time after a state crossed the 1 per million threshold until it ordered businesses shut down.
We ran a simple one-variable correlation of deaths per million and days to shutdown, which ranged from minus-10 days (some states shut down before any sign of Covid-19) to 35 days for South Dakota, one of seven states with limited or no shutdown. The correlation coefficient was 5.5%—so low that the engineers I used to employ would have summarized it as “no correlation” and moved on to find the real cause of the problem. (The trendline sloped downward—states that delayed more tended to have lower death rates—but that’s also a meaningless result due to the low correlation coefficient.)
No conclusions can be drawn about the states that sheltered quickly, because their death rates ran the full gamut, from 20 per million in Oregon to 360 in New York. This wide variation means that other variables—like population density or subway use—were more important. Our correlation coefficient for per-capita death rates vs. the population density was 44%. That suggests New York City might have benefited from its shutdown—but blindly copying New York’s policies in places with low Covid-19 death rates, such as my native Wisconsin, doesn’t make sense.
Sweden is fighting coronavirus with common-sense guidelines that are much less economically destructive than the lockdowns in most U.S. states. Since people over 65 account for about 80% of Covid-19 deaths, Sweden asked only seniors to shelter in place rather than shutting down the rest of the country; and since Sweden had no pediatric deaths, it didn’t shut down elementary and middle schools. Sweden’s containment measures are less onerous than America’s, so it can keep them in place longer to prevent Covid-19 from recurring. Sweden did not shut down stores, restaurants and most businesses, but did shut down the Volvo automotive plant, which has since reopened, while the Tesla plant in Fremont, Calif., was shuttered by police and remains closed.
How did the Swedes do? They suffered 80 deaths per million 21 days after crossing the 1 per million threshold level. With 10 million people, Sweden’s death rate‒without a shutdown and massive unemployment‒is lower than that of the seven hardest-hit U.S. states—Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Louisiana, Connecticut, Michigan, New Jersey and New York—all of which, except Louisiana, shut down in three days or less. Despite stories about high death rates, Sweden’s is in the middle of the pack in Europe, comparable to France; better than Italy, Spain and the U.K.; and worse than Finland, Denmark and Norway. Older people in care homes accounted for half of Sweden’s deaths.
We should cheer for Sweden to succeed, not ghoulishly bash them. They may prove that many aspects of the U.S. shutdown were mistakes—ineffective but economically devastating—and point the way to correcting them.
Mr. Rodgers was founding CEO of Cypress Semiconductor Corp.
Comments
I like the way he stated that. I'm going to post it and watch people's heads assplode saying I don't care about gramma. But it's amazing how fucking true it is. Shut down bars and restaurants and ban all smoking and see how many more "life years" we save. Don't see people lining up to shut down their neighbors business for that.
What's the turn around?Reading for comprehension edit.
Shorten your fucking tweets, dickheads. I don't have all day.
The study, spurred by Miami-Dade County officials, will be an ongoing weekly survey based on antibody testing — randomly selecting county residents to volunteer pinpricks of their blood to be screened for signs of a past COVID-19 infection, whether they had tested positive for the virus in the past or not. The goal is to measure the extent of infection in the community.
Friday’s results, based on two weeks of countywide antibody testing and about 1,400 participants, found that about half of the people who tested positive for antibodies reported no symptoms in the 14-17 days before being tested. If the trend holds, the findings could have major implications for understanding not only the number of people infected, but also how many have symptoms and, in turn, how the virus spreads.
Erin Kobetz, a University of Miami professor of medicine and public health sciences and the lead researcher on the project, presented the findings along with Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez during a press conference on Friday.
Gimenez said the survey’s early findings are informing the county’s decisions about how to allow limited openings of public areas, such as county parks. But he emphasized that social distancing measures will remain in place — and enforced by police and an army of 400 “event staff” members that Miami-Dade hired to ensure people follow the rules.
Given the massive amount of younger people who have been infected with minor or no symptoms it would be nice to know.
Edit: also was totally covered despite being out of network. They even took my friend who is uninsured(lost his job/insurance) and helped him fill out some form to submit to medicare.
#3 is a good poont.
How long can Chris Cuomo fake living in his basement for God's sake?
Do Lockdowns Save Many Lives? In Most Places, the Data Say No
To normalize for an unambiguous comparison of deaths between states at the midpoint of an epidemic, we counted deaths per million population for a fixed 21-day period, measured from when the death rate first hit 1 per million—e.g.,‒three deaths in Iowa or 19 in New York state. A state’s “days to shutdown” was the time after a state crossed the 1 per million threshold until it ordered businesses shut down.
We ran a simple one-variable correlation of deaths per million and days to shutdown, which ranged from minus-10 days (some states shut down before any sign of Covid-19) to 35 days for South Dakota, one of seven states with limited or no shutdown. The correlation coefficient was 5.5%—so low that the engineers I used to employ would have summarized it as “no correlation” and moved on to find the real cause of the problem. (The trendline sloped downward—states that delayed more tended to have lower death rates—but that’s also a meaningless result due to the low correlation coefficient.)
No conclusions can be drawn about the states that sheltered quickly, because their death rates ran the full gamut, from 20 per million in Oregon to 360 in New York. This wide variation means that other variables—like population density or subway use—were more important. Our correlation coefficient for per-capita death rates vs. the population density was 44%. That suggests New York City might have benefited from its shutdown—but blindly copying New York’s policies in places with low Covid-19 death rates, such as my native Wisconsin, doesn’t make sense.
Sweden is fighting coronavirus with common-sense guidelines that are much less economically destructive than the lockdowns in most U.S. states. Since people over 65 account for about 80% of Covid-19 deaths, Sweden asked only seniors to shelter in place rather than shutting down the rest of the country; and since Sweden had no pediatric deaths, it didn’t shut down elementary and middle schools. Sweden’s containment measures are less onerous than America’s, so it can keep them in place longer to prevent Covid-19 from recurring. Sweden did not shut down stores, restaurants and most businesses, but did shut down the Volvo automotive plant, which has since reopened, while the Tesla plant in Fremont, Calif., was shuttered by police and remains closed.
How did the Swedes do? They suffered 80 deaths per million 21 days after crossing the 1 per million threshold level. With 10 million people, Sweden’s death rate‒without a shutdown and massive unemployment‒is lower than that of the seven hardest-hit U.S. states—Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Louisiana, Connecticut, Michigan, New Jersey and New York—all of which, except Louisiana, shut down in three days or less. Despite stories about high death rates, Sweden’s is in the middle of the pack in Europe, comparable to France; better than Italy, Spain and the U.K.; and worse than Finland, Denmark and Norway. Older people in care homes accounted for half of Sweden’s deaths.
We should cheer for Sweden to succeed, not ghoulishly bash them. They may prove that many aspects of the U.S. shutdown were mistakes—ineffective but economically devastating—and point the way to correcting them.
Mr. Rodgers was founding CEO of Cypress Semiconductor Corp.