UW Doog Bot's Season Wins Probability Distribution Calculator ASU win Fupdate

UW_Doog_Bot

A 10-2 overall record with an 8-1 conference record is still the most likely outcome for the season with increasing likelihoods of 37.7% and 38.8% respectively. The likelihood of doing this well or better has now become roughly 66% for our Dwags with the given expected win probabilities. The odds of going undefeated in Pac12 play have doubled since beating Utah and ASU. The most likely loss left on the schedule is Stanford. While the UCLA game may look like a more likely win games against Oregon and Cal may now be more uncertain. I expect some of the pre-season probabilities to have shifted but the overall averages to have more or less balanced out across the schedule. I will re-poll the boared at the mid-way point of the season to see if there are any significant changes to the predicted outcomes.







As promised, I was told there would be no maff'.gif

YellowSnow

WilburHooksHands

I'm hearing UW improved the scoring defense metric of the 4 teams we've played by scoring higher than their respective averages. Can this be mathematically proven? TIA.

UW_Doog_Bot

YellowSnow said:

Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.

UW_Doog_Bot

WilburHooksHands said:

I'm hearing UW improved the scoring defense metric of the 4 teams we've played by scoring higher than their respective averages. Can this be mathematically proven? TIA.

Do you mean the defenses we have faced have had their average scores against go up as a result of playing us? or go down? I'm assuming the first but that would mean the opposite of improved.

Off the top of my head, I would guess that we have outscored the average against for every defense we have played and driven their ppg up, yes.

This is fairly easy to show mathematically if it is what you are asking.



It's still early so the UW game would be dragging averages up and down respectively to a larger than normal degree as well as any games against "cupcakes" etc. Still, we? are consistently putting more points up than teams are otherwise allowing and consistently giving up less points than teams are normally scoring.

You can somewhat use this to project outcomes moving forward but it has a high level of variance this early in the season.

Doogles

If we lose any Pac12 game burn it to the ground.

HillsboroDuck

UW_Doog_Bot said:

YellowSnow said:

Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.

We? could really use a Stanford win this weekend as well.

WilburHooksHands

UW_Doog_Bot said:

WilburHooksHands said:

I'm hearing UW improved the scoring defense metric of the 4 teams we've played by scoring higher than their respective averages. Can this be mathematically proven? TIA.

Do you mean the defenses we have faced have had their average scores against go up as a result of playing us? or go down? I'm assuming the first but that would mean the opposite of improved.

Off the top of my head, I would guess that we have outscored the average against for every defense we have played and driven their ppg up, yes.

This is fairly easy to show mathematically if it is what you are asking.



It's still early so the UW game would be dragging averages up and down respectively to a larger than normal degree as well as any games against "cupcakes" etc. Still, we? are consistently putting more points up than teams are otherwise allowing and consistently giving up less points than teams are normally scoring.

You can somewhat use this to project outcomes moving forward but it has a high level of variance this early in the season.

No it was a joke from another thread but you fucked it up hth

UW_Doog_Bot

WilburHooksHands said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

WilburHooksHands said:

I'm hearing UW improved the scoring defense metric of the 4 teams we've played by scoring higher than their respective averages. Can this be mathematically proven? TIA.

Do you mean the defenses we have faced have had their average scores against go up as a result of playing us? or go down? I'm assuming the first but that would mean the opposite of improved.

Off the top of my head, I would guess that we have outscored the average against for every defense we have played and driven their ppg up, yes.

This is fairly easy to show mathematically if it is what you are asking.



It's still early so the UW game would be dragging averages up and down respectively to a larger than normal degree as well as any games against "cupcakes" etc. Still, we? are consistently putting more points up than teams are otherwise allowing and consistently giving up less points than teams are normally scoring.

You can somewhat use this to project outcomes moving forward but it has a high level of variance this early in the season.

No it was a joke from another thread but you fucked it up hth

I got into autist math mode. It happens.

UW_Doog_Bot

HillsboroDuck said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

YellowSnow said:

Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.

We? could really use a Stanford win this weekend as well.

What's really painful to consider is that with an Auburn win this is what the skew would look like and we wouldn't have to give a fuck what anyone else was doing...

YellowSnow

UW_Doog_Bot said:

YellowSnow said:

Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.

If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.

UW_Doog_Bot

YellowSnow said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

YellowSnow said:

Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.

If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.

Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).

You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.

YellowSnow

UW_Doog_Bot said:

YellowSnow said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

YellowSnow said:

Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.

If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.

Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).

You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.

Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.

RaceBannon

YellowSnow said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

YellowSnow said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

YellowSnow said:

Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.

If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.

Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).

You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.

Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.

As the kids like to say today, we are punching down at Oregon. We are punching up at Stanford thanks to last year

We just punched up ASU as well

Doogles

YellowSnow said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

YellowSnow said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

YellowSnow said:

Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.

If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.

Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).

You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.

Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.

With you Yella.

Oregon game is the hardest remaining and I don't think it's really close.

They have the Best QB, a bye week to prepare, at home.

Someone posted a stat that the record for P12 teams going back to back on the road against any team not named Oregon State is 1-14???

Game is huge.

YellowSnow

Doogles said:

YellowSnow said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

YellowSnow said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

YellowSnow said:

Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.

If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.

Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).

You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.

Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.

With you Yella.

Oregon game is the hardest remaining and I don't think it's really close.

They have the Best QB, a bye week to prepare, at home.

Someone posted a stat that the record for P12 teams going back to back on the road against any team not named Oregon State is 1-14???

Game is huge.

It's a YUGE competitive disadvantage game for us. We'll probably be favored by between 4 and 7 pts but still

Doogles

YellowSnow said:

Doogles said:

YellowSnow said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

YellowSnow said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

YellowSnow said:

Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.

If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.

Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).

You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.

Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.

With you Yella.

Oregon game is the hardest remaining and I don't think it's really close.

They have the Best QB, a bye week to prepare, at home.

Someone posted a stat that the record for P12 teams going back to back on the road against any team not named Oregon State is 1-14???

Game is huge.

It's a YUGE competitive disadvantage game for us. We'll probably be favored by between 4 and 7 pts but still

But how does Larry Scott deserve 0-8 Bowl Season?

LebamDawg

I am old and constipated - think I will go upstairs and work all this out with my slide rule

DoogCourics

UW_Doog_Bot said:

WilburHooksHands said:

I'm hearing UW improved the scoring defense metric of the 4 teams we've played by scoring higher than their respective averages. Can this be mathematically proven? TIA.

Do you mean the defenses we have faced have had their average scores against go up as a result of playing us? or go down? I'm assuming the first but that would mean the opposite of improved.

Off the top of my head, I would guess that we have outscored the average against for every defense we have played and driven their ppg up, yes.

This is fairly easy to show mathematically if it is what you are asking.



It's still early so the UW game would be dragging averages up and down respectively to a larger than normal degree as well as any games against "cupcakes" etc. Still, we? are consistently putting more points up than teams are otherwise allowing and consistently giving up less points than teams are normally scoring.

You can somewhat use this to project outcomes moving forward but it has a high level of variance this early in the season.

Poast this as the season goes on. I could do the work myself, but I enjoy when others make charts for me.

UW_Doog_Bot

DoogCourics said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

WilburHooksHands said:

I'm hearing UW improved the scoring defense metric of the 4 teams we've played by scoring higher than their respective averages. Can this be mathematically proven? TIA.

Do you mean the defenses we have faced have had their average scores against go up as a result of playing us? or go down? I'm assuming the first but that would mean the opposite of improved.

Off the top of my head, I would guess that we have outscored the average against for every defense we have played and driven their ppg up, yes.

This is fairly easy to show mathematically if it is what you are asking.



It's still early so the UW game would be dragging averages up and down respectively to a larger than normal degree as well as any games against "cupcakes" etc. Still, we? are consistently putting more points up than teams are otherwise allowing and consistently giving up less points than teams are normally scoring.

You can somewhat use this to project outcomes moving forward but it has a high level of variance this early in the season.

Poast this as the season goes on. I could do the work myself, but I enjoy when others make charts for me.

Projected out for the rest of the season with current averages. I can update on a weekly basis since that was super easy. Currently Colorado projecting as the toughest opponent by this metric but like I said, it's super early. Even another couple of weeks should make the numbers settle a bit more close to their "true" value.

DoogCourics

UW_Doog_Bot said:

DoogCourics said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

WilburHooksHands said:

I'm hearing UW improved the scoring defense metric of the 4 teams we've played by scoring higher than their respective averages. Can this be mathematically proven? TIA.

Do you mean the defenses we have faced have had their average scores against go up as a result of playing us? or go down? I'm assuming the first but that would mean the opposite of improved.

Off the top of my head, I would guess that we have outscored the average against for every defense we have played and driven their ppg up, yes.

This is fairly easy to show mathematically if it is what you are asking.



It's still early so the UW game would be dragging averages up and down respectively to a larger than normal degree as well as any games against "cupcakes" etc. Still, we? are consistently putting more points up than teams are otherwise allowing and consistently giving up less points than teams are normally scoring.

You can somewhat use this to project outcomes moving forward but it has a high level of variance this early in the season.

Poast this as the season goes on. I could do the work myself, but I enjoy when others make charts for me.

Projected out for the rest of the season with current averages. I can update on a weekly basis since that was super easy. Currently Colorado projecting as the toughest opponent by this metric but like I said, it's super early. Even another couple of weeks should make the numbers settle a bit more close to their "true" value.

Appreciate you.