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Tequilla Study: How BAD was UW's 3rd Down Offense Last Year

TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,931
in Hardcore Husky Board
It's been talked about dating back to last year regarding how pathetic the UW offense was on 3rd down ranging from Browning's play to Babushka's play calling. There's a very relevant NFL Films segment tied to Bart Starr and the Packers dating back to either Super Bowl I or II where it talks about the worth of a QB is how they perform on 3rd down … I think that that is particularly true. And in this regard, the data below becomes quite telling with respect to Browning. How bad was it? Let's take a look (note, I plan on doing a similar study on the Defense before the season):

METHODOLOGY

  • Includes all 3rd downs for drives started during first 3 quarters of games
  • Includes any drive in the 4th quarter where the drive started with a margin of 3 scores or less
  • The play call type is defined as what was actually called on a play (sacks and scrambles are considered passes)
  • In the event that the 3rd down conversion was picked up via penalty, the original result of the play (sans penalty) was included in ALL stats (the penalties will be called out separately)
SUMMARY
  • UW had 138 3rd down attempts last year fitting the above criteria and converted 60 of them (before penalties) for a conversion rate of 43.5% (an additional 6 1st downs were picked up by penalty bringing the effective conversion rate up to 47.8%)
  • The average 3rd down distance for UW was 6.69 yards; on average UW gained 4.96 yards on 3rd down
  • Of the 138 attempts on 3rd down, UW called a pass play on 104 of those attempts, or 75.4% of the time
  • Of those 104 pass attempts on 3rd down, UW converted at a 35.6% clip
  • Of the 34 times UW ran the ball on 3rd down, the conversion rate was at a 67.6% clip
  • Of the 67 times UW did not pick up a 1st down via throwing, 14 of those attempts resulted in sacks
  • In total, UW allowed 20 sacks last year
GAME BY GAME DETAIL

Rutgers

  • 3 of 11 on 3rd down for a 27% conversion rate
  • 3 of 9 conversion via pass
  • 0 for 2 conversions via run (run attempts were early in the game on a 3rd and 19 and towards the end of the game when running out the clock)
  • Average 3rd down distance needed was 8.91 yards
  • Average yards gained on 3rd down was 3.18 yards
Montana

  • 2 for 4 on 3rd down for a 50% conversion rate
  • All 4 attempts came via pass
  • Average 3rd down distance needed was 6.25 yards
  • Average yards gained on 3rd down was 10.0 yards
Fresno St
  • 4 for 7 on 3rd down for a 57% conversion rate
  • 6 of 7 attempts came via pass; converted 3 of those 6
  • Average 3rd down distance needed was 7.43 yards
  • Average yards gained on 3rd down was 4.43 yards
Colorado

  • 5 of 10 on 3rd down for a 50% conversion rate
  • 2 of 6 in conversions via pass
  • 3 of 4 in conversions via run
  • Average 3rd down yardage needed was 5.20 yards
  • Average 3rd down yards gained was 3.30 yards
Oregon St
  • 5 of 12 on 3rd down for a 42% conversion rate
  • 4 of 10 in conversions via pass
  • 1 of 2 in conversions via run
  • Average 3rd down yardage needed was 7.00 yards
  • Average 3rd down yards gained was 4.83 yards
Cal

  • 12 of 18 on 3rd down for a 67% conversion rate
  • 8 of 14 in conversions via pass
  • 4 of 4 in conversions via run
  • Average 3rd down yardage needed was 6.33 yards
  • Average 3rd down yards gained was 5.39 yards
Arizona St
  • 3 of 14 on 3rd down for a 21% conversion rate
  • 2 of 11 in conversions via pass
  • 1 of 3 in conversions via run
  • Average 3rd down yardage needed was 8.21 yards
  • Average 3rd down yards gained was 1.21 yards
UCLA

  • 3 of 9 on 3rd down for a 33% conversion rate
  • 1 of 5 in conversions via pass
  • 2 of 4 in conversions via run (includes a very piss poor decision by Browning to keep it on a 3rd and short read option)
  • Average 3rd down yardage needed was 4.33 yards (by far the lowest number of the season - should convert at a far higher % than 3 of 9 if average conversion in this range)
  • Average 3rd down yards gained was 3.89 yards
Oregon

  • 5 of 9 on 3rd down for a 56% conversion rate
  • 4 of 8 in conversions via pass
  • 1 of 1 in conversions via run
  • Average 3rd down yardage needed was 9.00 yards
  • Average 3rd down yards gained was 16.22 yards
Stanford

  • 2 of 8 on 3rd down for a 25% conversion rate
  • 1 of 6 in conversions via pass
  • 1 of 2 in conversions via run
  • Average 3rd down yardage needed of 6.50 yards
  • Average 3rd down yards gained of 2.50 yards
Utah

  • 6 of 12 on 3rd down for a 50% conversion rate
  • 3 of 8 in conversions via pass
  • 3 of 4 in conversions via run
  • Average 3rd down yardage needed of 5.17 yards
  • Average 3rd down yards gained of 2.42 yards
Washington St
  • 2 of 9 on 3rd down for a 22% conversion rate
  • 0 of 7 in conversions via pass
  • 2 of 2 in conversions via run
  • Average 3rd down yardage needed of 6.44 yards
  • Average 3rd down yards gained of 0.78 yards (that's comically bad)
Penn St
  • 8 of 15 on 3rd down for a 53% conversion rate
  • 4 of 10 in conversions via pass
  • 4 of 5 in conversions via run
  • Average 3rd down yardage needed of 6.07 yards
  • Average 3rd down yards gained of 9.07 yards (includes the long Gaskin TD run and TD pass to Fuller)
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Comments

  • TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,931
    Because if you know what/how to look for the data it doesn't take that long to summarize it … it actually took me longer to put the post together then it did for me to do the research
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  • Pitchfork51Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 27,021
    Tequilla said:

    Because if you know what/how to look for the data it doesn't take that long to summarize it … it actually took me longer to put the post together then it did for me to do the research

    Sad!!
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  • skinnedskinned Member Posts: 103

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  • GladstoneGladstone Member Posts: 16,419
    Good stuff.
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  • GilbystaintGilbystaint Member Posts: 1,061
    Combine this with the defense’s untimely ability to not get off the field on 3rd down in crucial situations, made for a frustrating season
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  • GilbystaintGilbystaint Member Posts: 1,061
    Pitchfork51 said:

    Tequilla said:

    Because if you know what/how to look for the data it doesn't take that long to summarize it … it actually took me longer to put the post together then it did for me to do the research

    Sad!!
    He was born with this burden.
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  • dncdnc Member Posts: 56,789
    What was the distance to gain on the runs versus the passes?
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  • SwayeSwaye Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 41,511 Founders Club
    Good chit Teqboat.

    I don't even understand maff and I can still see that running Gaskin on third down = good, and letting Shitstainsox throw on third down = terrible.

    I am really happy Ngata made a decison so I can call Browning Shitstainsox again. We'd be better off on every third and long running a draw to Gaskin or just punting than letting that retard throw.
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  • Mad_SonMad_Son Member Posts: 10,184
    Since you have the data, can you give a breakdown of run/pass% and sack% by ytg in your subset of 3rd downs? I don't know what the natural breaks are or sample size in different buckets but maybe 2 yard increments makes sense.

    I suspect this will highlight 1) how "tricky" our play calling was and 2) how we know browning "performs" under pressure
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  • BreadBread Member Posts: 4,053
    I'll take 'things everyone but Jonathan Smith already knows' for $100.
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  • HUSKYFANATICHUSKYFANATIC Member Posts: 1,651
    Good chit
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  • jarlsbergraygunjarlsbergraygun Member Posts: 36
    Mad_Son said:

    Since you have the data, can you give a breakdown of run/pass% and sack% by ytg in your subset of 3rd downs?

    This, we need to see the run/pass success % adjusted for ytg before resuming our regularly scheduled hate.
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  • ThomasFremontThomasFremont Member Posts: 13,325
    Tequilla said:

    It's been talked about dating back to last year regarding how pathetic the UW offense was on 3rd down ranging from Browning's play to Babushka's play calling. There's a very relevant NFL Films segment tied to Bart Starr and the Packers dating back to either Super Bowl I or II where it talks about the worth of a QB is how they perform on 3rd down … I think that that is particularly true. And in this regard, the data below becomes quite telling with respect to Browning. How bad was it? Let's take a look (note, I plan on doing a similar study on the Defense before the season):

    METHODOLOGY

    • Includes all 3rd downs for drives started during first 3 quarters of games
    • Includes any drive in the 4th quarter where the drive started with a margin of 3 scores or less
    • The play call type is defined as what was actually called on a play (sacks and scrambles are considered passes)
    • In the event that the 3rd down conversion was picked up via penalty, the original result of the play (sans penalty) was included in ALL stats (the penalties will be called out separately)
    SUMMARY
    • UW had 138 3rd down attempts last year fitting the above criteria and converted 60 of them (before penalties) for a conversion rate of 43.5% (an additional 6 1st downs were picked up by penalty bringing the effective conversion rate up to 47.8%)
    • The average 3rd down distance for UW was 6.69 yards; on average UW gained 4.96 yards on 3rd down
    • Of the 138 attempts on 3rd down, UW called a pass play on 104 of those attempts, or 75.4% of the time
    • Of those 104 pass attempts on 3rd down, UW converted at a 35.6% clip
    • Of the 34 times UW ran the ball on 3rd down, the conversion rate was at a 67.6% clip
    • Of the 67 times UW did not pick up a 1st down via throwing, 14 of those attempts resulted in sacks
    • In total, UW allowed 20 sacks last year
    GAME BY GAME DETAIL

    Rutgers

    • 3 of 11 on 3rd down for a 27% conversion rate
    • 3 of 9 conversion via pass
    • 0 for 2 conversions via run (run attempts were early in the game on a 3rd and 19 and towards the end of the game when running out the clock)
    • Average 3rd down distance needed was 8.91 yards
    • Average yards gained on 3rd down was 3.18 yards
    Montana

    • 2 for 4 on 3rd down for a 50% conversion rate
    • All 4 attempts came via pass
    • Average 3rd down distance needed was 6.25 yards
    • Average yards gained on 3rd down was 10.0 yards
    Fresno St
    • 4 for 7 on 3rd down for a 57% conversion rate
    • 6 of 7 attempts came via pass; converted 3 of those 6
    • Average 3rd down distance needed was 7.43 yards
    • Average yards gained on 3rd down was 4.43 yards
    Colorado

    • 5 of 10 on 3rd down for a 50% conversion rate
    • 2 of 6 in conversions via pass
    • 3 of 4 in conversions via run
    • Average 3rd down yardage needed was 5.20 yards
    • Average 3rd down yards gained was 3.30 yards
    Oregon St
    • 5 of 12 on 3rd down for a 42% conversion rate
    • 4 of 10 in conversions via pass
    • 1 of 2 in conversions via run
    • Average 3rd down yardage needed was 7.00 yards
    • Average 3rd down yards gained was 4.83 yards
    Cal

    • 12 of 18 on 3rd down for a 67% conversion rate
    • 8 of 14 in conversions via pass
    • 4 of 4 in conversions via run
    • Average 3rd down yardage needed was 6.33 yards
    • Average 3rd down yards gained was 5.39 yards
    Arizona St
    • 3 of 14 on 3rd down for a 21% conversion rate
    • 2 of 11 in conversions via pass
    • 1 of 3 in conversions via run
    • Average 3rd down yardage needed was 8.21 yards
    • Average 3rd down yards gained was 1.21 yards
    UCLA

    • 3 of 9 on 3rd down for a 33% conversion rate
    • 1 of 5 in conversions via pass
    • 2 of 4 in conversions via run (includes a very piss poor decision by Browning to keep it on a 3rd and short read option)
    • Average 3rd down yardage needed was 4.33 yards (by far the lowest number of the season - should convert at a far higher % than 3 of 9 if average conversion in this range)
    • Average 3rd down yards gained was 3.89 yards
    Oregon

    • 5 of 9 on 3rd down for a 56% conversion rate
    • 4 of 8 in conversions via pass
    • 1 of 1 in conversions via run
    • Average 3rd down yardage needed was 9.00 yards
    • Average 3rd down yards gained was 16.22 yards
    Stanford

    • 2 of 8 on 3rd down for a 25% conversion rate
    • 1 of 6 in conversions via pass
    • 1 of 2 in conversions via run
    • Average 3rd down yardage needed of 6.50 yards
    • Average 3rd down yards gained of 2.50 yards
    Utah

    • 6 of 12 on 3rd down for a 50% conversion rate
    • 3 of 8 in conversions via pass
    • 3 of 4 in conversions via run
    • Average 3rd down yardage needed of 5.17 yards
    • Average 3rd down yards gained of 2.42 yards
    Washington St
    • 2 of 9 on 3rd down for a 22% conversion rate
    • 0 of 7 in conversions via pass
    • 2 of 2 in conversions via run
    • Average 3rd down yardage needed of 6.44 yards
    • Average 3rd down yards gained of 0.78 yards (that's comically bad)
    Penn St
    • 8 of 15 on 3rd down for a 53% conversion rate
    • 4 of 10 in conversions via pass
    • 4 of 5 in conversions via run
    • Average 3rd down yardage needed of 6.07 yards
    • Average 3rd down yards gained of 9.07 yards (includes the long Gaskin TD run and TD pass to Fuller)
    Disagree
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  • FireCohenFireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
    whatshouldicareabout said:

    Here it is in table format for easier reading:

    Game Conversions Conversion Rate Conversion via Pass Average 3rd Down Distance Average 3rd Down Gain
    Rutgers 3/11 27% 3/9 8.91 3.18
    Montana 2/4 50% 2/4 6.25 10.0
    Fresno St. 4/7 57% 3/6 7.43 4.43
    Colorado 5/10 50% 2/6 5.20 3.30
    Oregon St. 5/12 42% 4/10 7.00 4.83
    Cal 12/18 67% 8/14 6.33 5.39
    Arizona St. 3/14 21% 2/11 8.21 1.21
    UCLA 3/9 33% 1/5 4.33 3.89
    Oregon 5/9 56% 4/8 9.00 16.22
    Stanford 2/8 25% 1/6 6.50 2.50
    Utah 6/12 50% 3/8 5.17 2.42
    Washington St. 2/9 22% 0/7 6.44 0.78
    Penn St. 8/15 53% 4/10 6.07 9.07
    To many numbers
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  • TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,931
    How did you put it in table format?
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  • DerekJohnsonDerekJohnson Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 64,059 Founders Club
    avg gain on 3rd down vs. ASU... 1.2 yards
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