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Today's Romary MythBuster: Elite Young Players Needed to Win Big (Long)
Tequilla
Member Posts: 19,815
How many times has the Doog and Romar lover narrative been spewed that to win championships you have to have elite young players (i.e. tons of McDonald's All Americans) and that the only way that you get them is to pay for them. And since Romar runs his program the right way and doesn't pay players, we just can't compete at that level.
So it got me thinking as I was watching the first round of the tournament how much this narrative really is based in reality and how much of it is just uneducated, throwing crap against the wall, and distractions. So I decided to look at the starting lineups of the 16 teams that made it to the Sweet 16 and the results were very interesting.
Of the 80 starters, the composition of the starters by class are as follows:
Freshman: 10 (12.5% of total)
Sophomores: 12 (15.0%)
Juniors: 24 (30.0%)
Seniors: 34 (42.5%)
What's telling to me in the numbers is that on average each team has less than 2 starters in their starting lineup that are underclassmen. In other words, even for the most elite of programs, the program is built up by taking young players, getting them in the program, developing them as bench/role players for their first year or two in the program, and then as they become experienced they transition into leading roles on their team. Even the most ardent of Romar supporters would have to admit that programs like Kansas and North Carolina are going to be able to get whatever kind of talent they want yearly full of McDonald's All Americans yet they are littered with upper class players. Granted, from time to time they'll have guys that leave early and go to the draft and they have the kind of quality depth behind to absorb those losses better than other programs, but they also have the kinds of coaches in place where the kids also understand that if they stay in school they WILL get better.
As it applies to Romar and UW, it becomes painfully obvious why they are routinely on the cycle that they've been on over the last 5 years. His most successful teams from the first half of his tenure became littered with upperclass players where it was Nate and BRoy onto the teams led by Brockman, IT, and Pondexter. But since then, the high caliber upper class talent has been completely missing as players either leave for the NBA early or transfer out. A player like AA is exactly the kind of junior/senior player that you expect to see move through the program as a role player early in his career and then ready to take on a leadership role his last 2 years in the program. But Romar's program as of late have been almost completely devoid of those kinds of experienced players. The result is that it leads into this constant cycle of recruit talented players, have nobody behind them to push them or teach them how to play the right way, they run roughshot over the program as they don't have the pressure or competition to play correctly, use the program as a pit stop, and leave early.
While the talent for the 2016-2017 COULD be at a relatively elite level, there won't be a single meaningful player in the rotation that is an upperclassmen as they will all be freshman and sophomores. While there may be more competition for playing time (which is good), there's also nobody there that is able to talk about a winning culture and how things are done at that program (for example, look at how Wisconsin has turned their season around and the 4 juniors that are in their starting lineup that have all been around a program that had been to 2 straight Final Fours).
Not that this is a complete surprise for those that follow UW Basketball, have caught onto Romar's fallacies, and know college basketball in general. But the reality is that unless Romar's able to continually recruit at a high level going forward and ultimately get a significant portion of his class to continue transitioning into upperclassmen to supplement the "elite" young talent that he's bringing in, every year will be an empty promise of "look at all this talent that we're bringing in" followed at the end of the year talking about "how young we are."
Full list of teams, starters, and class year below:
Miami: Murphy (Jr), Jakiri (Sr), Reed (Jr), Rodriquez (Sr), McClellan (Sr)
Villanova: Ochefu (Sr), Jenkins (Jr), Hart (Jr), Arcidicono (Sr), Brunson (Fr)
Texas A&M: Davis (Fr), Jones (Sr), Collins (Sr), House (Sr), Caruso (Sr)
Oklahoma: Spangler (Sr), Lattin (So), Cousins (Sr), Hield (Sr), Woodard (Jr)
Maryland: Carter (Jr), Layman (Sr), Stone (Fr), Tremble (So), Sulaimon (Sr)
Kansas: Lucas (Jr), Ellis (Sr), Mason III (Jr), Selden Jr (Jr), Graham (So)
Duke: Plumlee (Sr), Jones (Jr), Allen (So), Kennard (Fr), Ingram (Fr)
Oregon: Cook (Sr), Brooks (So), Boucher (Sr), Dorsey (Fr), Benson (So)
Iowa St: Niang (Sr), McKay (Sr), Nader (Sr), Morris (Jr), Thomas (Jr)
Virginia: Gill (Sr), Wilkins (So), Brogdon (Sr), Hall (So), Perrantes (Jr)
Wisconsin: Hayes (Jr), Brown (Jr), Happ (Fr), Koenig (Jr), Showalter (Jr)
Notre Dame: Beachem (Jr), Auguste (Sr), Jackson (Jr), Vasturia (Jr), Farrell (So)
Gonzaga: Wiltjer (Sr), Sabonis (So), Perkins (Fr), Dranginis (Sr), McClellan (Sr)
Syracuse: Gloinije (Sr), Roberson (Jr), Coleman (Sr), Cooney (Sr), Richardson (Fr)
Indiana: Williams (Jr), Hartman (Jr), Bryant (Fr), Zeisloft (Sr), Farrell (Sr)
North Carolina: Johnson (Sr), Meeks (Jr), Jackson (So), Paige (Sr), Berry (So)
So it got me thinking as I was watching the first round of the tournament how much this narrative really is based in reality and how much of it is just uneducated, throwing crap against the wall, and distractions. So I decided to look at the starting lineups of the 16 teams that made it to the Sweet 16 and the results were very interesting.
Of the 80 starters, the composition of the starters by class are as follows:
Freshman: 10 (12.5% of total)
Sophomores: 12 (15.0%)
Juniors: 24 (30.0%)
Seniors: 34 (42.5%)
What's telling to me in the numbers is that on average each team has less than 2 starters in their starting lineup that are underclassmen. In other words, even for the most elite of programs, the program is built up by taking young players, getting them in the program, developing them as bench/role players for their first year or two in the program, and then as they become experienced they transition into leading roles on their team. Even the most ardent of Romar supporters would have to admit that programs like Kansas and North Carolina are going to be able to get whatever kind of talent they want yearly full of McDonald's All Americans yet they are littered with upper class players. Granted, from time to time they'll have guys that leave early and go to the draft and they have the kind of quality depth behind to absorb those losses better than other programs, but they also have the kinds of coaches in place where the kids also understand that if they stay in school they WILL get better.
As it applies to Romar and UW, it becomes painfully obvious why they are routinely on the cycle that they've been on over the last 5 years. His most successful teams from the first half of his tenure became littered with upperclass players where it was Nate and BRoy onto the teams led by Brockman, IT, and Pondexter. But since then, the high caliber upper class talent has been completely missing as players either leave for the NBA early or transfer out. A player like AA is exactly the kind of junior/senior player that you expect to see move through the program as a role player early in his career and then ready to take on a leadership role his last 2 years in the program. But Romar's program as of late have been almost completely devoid of those kinds of experienced players. The result is that it leads into this constant cycle of recruit talented players, have nobody behind them to push them or teach them how to play the right way, they run roughshot over the program as they don't have the pressure or competition to play correctly, use the program as a pit stop, and leave early.
While the talent for the 2016-2017 COULD be at a relatively elite level, there won't be a single meaningful player in the rotation that is an upperclassmen as they will all be freshman and sophomores. While there may be more competition for playing time (which is good), there's also nobody there that is able to talk about a winning culture and how things are done at that program (for example, look at how Wisconsin has turned their season around and the 4 juniors that are in their starting lineup that have all been around a program that had been to 2 straight Final Fours).
Not that this is a complete surprise for those that follow UW Basketball, have caught onto Romar's fallacies, and know college basketball in general. But the reality is that unless Romar's able to continually recruit at a high level going forward and ultimately get a significant portion of his class to continue transitioning into upperclassmen to supplement the "elite" young talent that he's bringing in, every year will be an empty promise of "look at all this talent that we're bringing in" followed at the end of the year talking about "how young we are."
Full list of teams, starters, and class year below:
Miami: Murphy (Jr), Jakiri (Sr), Reed (Jr), Rodriquez (Sr), McClellan (Sr)
Villanova: Ochefu (Sr), Jenkins (Jr), Hart (Jr), Arcidicono (Sr), Brunson (Fr)
Texas A&M: Davis (Fr), Jones (Sr), Collins (Sr), House (Sr), Caruso (Sr)
Oklahoma: Spangler (Sr), Lattin (So), Cousins (Sr), Hield (Sr), Woodard (Jr)
Maryland: Carter (Jr), Layman (Sr), Stone (Fr), Tremble (So), Sulaimon (Sr)
Kansas: Lucas (Jr), Ellis (Sr), Mason III (Jr), Selden Jr (Jr), Graham (So)
Duke: Plumlee (Sr), Jones (Jr), Allen (So), Kennard (Fr), Ingram (Fr)
Oregon: Cook (Sr), Brooks (So), Boucher (Sr), Dorsey (Fr), Benson (So)
Iowa St: Niang (Sr), McKay (Sr), Nader (Sr), Morris (Jr), Thomas (Jr)
Virginia: Gill (Sr), Wilkins (So), Brogdon (Sr), Hall (So), Perrantes (Jr)
Wisconsin: Hayes (Jr), Brown (Jr), Happ (Fr), Koenig (Jr), Showalter (Jr)
Notre Dame: Beachem (Jr), Auguste (Sr), Jackson (Jr), Vasturia (Jr), Farrell (So)
Gonzaga: Wiltjer (Sr), Sabonis (So), Perkins (Fr), Dranginis (Sr), McClellan (Sr)
Syracuse: Gloinije (Sr), Roberson (Jr), Coleman (Sr), Cooney (Sr), Richardson (Fr)
Indiana: Williams (Jr), Hartman (Jr), Bryant (Fr), Zeisloft (Sr), Farrell (Sr)
North Carolina: Johnson (Sr), Meeks (Jr), Jackson (So), Paige (Sr), Berry (So)
Comments
The freshman that we are retaining (assuming they don't transfer at the end of the year) all seem to have differing talents, attributes and skill sets. These Freshman, Thybulle, Crisp, Green, Durrusua(sp?) and the kid from Florida, the name escapes me, all played like typical freshman this year showing flashes of serviceability. If they continue to grow and develop as say a Quincey Pondexter did and Chill/Conroy continue to stuff the coffee cup to future one and done's then you could see a possible team in the future with talented juniors and seniors and a smattering of first round caliber pups.
Those teams would closer resemble the rosters of the current SS teams you showed above and would probably get UW a tournament invite or two. The down side is that Romar is the coach. Even building the team correctly and having talent in all classes all we should hope to see is a team that measures out to say an 11-7 league record and 22-11 overall. A team like that looks a lot more like the three Thomas teams that had upperclass players in Brockman, Pondexter, Amaning and Holiday. BTW, those teams properly coached were probably elite eight caliber teams yet they only made one SS. Monumental Success like that would earn CR another ten year extension and a raise. Hence my black mood this week.
In closing WE? are fucked.