REAL NY6 Scenarios
It's hard.
The only game that really matters is USC-Utah. Unless we* rocket up the rankings, it all depends on that game.
Assumed new rankings:
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. USC
5. tOSU
6. Alabama
7. Tennessee
8. Penn State
9. Kansas State
10. Washington dammit
Behind Washington: Clemson, LSU
Perhaps the committee comes out differently, but I'm taking the current standings besides dropping teams that lost, while ordering by number of losses (tOSU ahead of Bama after a loss)
This is the year that the Semis do not have any conference affiliation (Peach/Fiesta), so bowls which lose their conference champ to the playoff will replace their champ with another from the same conference. Therefore, if chalk holds (USC, TCU, Michigan, Georgia all win), the bowls will be:
Chalk Scenario
1. Georgia (Peach, playoff)
2. Michigan (Fiesta, playoff)
3. TCU (Fiesta, playoff)
4. USC (Peach, playoff)
5. tOSU (Rose, B1G champ replacement)
6. Alabama (Sugar, SEC champ replacement)
7. Tennessee
8. Penn State
9. Kansas State (Sugar, B12 champ replacement, yes even at 9-4)
10. Washington (Rose, P12 champ replacement)
ACC winner (Orange)
Group of 5 highest ranked
Kansas State and UW would be allocated to their NY 6 games before Tenn/PSU. (KSU likely falls a couple of ranking spots but it doesn't matter here) Tenn and PSU would still make it, with one to the Orange and the other to the Cotton to play the G5, but we are picked first.
Now, let's say USC loses. We will assume in the final rankings they are ahead of us and everyone just moves up 1 slot.
USC Cuogs it scenario
1. Georgia (Peach, playoff)
2. Michigan (Fiesta, playoff)
3. TCU (Fiesta, playoff)
4. tOSU (Peach, playoff)
5. Alabama (Sugar, SEC champ replacement)
6. Tennessee
7. Penn State (Rose, B1G champ replacement)
8. Kansas State (Sugar, B12 champ replacement)
9. USC
10. Washington
Utah (Rose)
ACC winner (Orange)
Group of 5 highest ranked
Tennessee and USC get picked.
Bama over tOSU does the same:
1. Georgia (Peach, playoff)
2. Michigan (Fiesta, playoff)
3. TCU (Fiesta, playoff)
4. Alabama (Peach, playoff)
5. tOSU (Rose, B1G champ replacement)
6. Tennessee (Sugar, SEC champ replacement)
7. Penn State
8. Kansas State (Sugar, B12 champ replacement)
9. USC
10. Washington
Utah (Rose)
ACC winner (Orange)
Group of 5 highest ranked
Let's do, oh, Georgia losing, USC winning:
1. Michigan (Peach, playoff)
2. TCU (Fiesta, playoff)
3. Georgia (Fiesta, playoff)
4. USC (Peach, playoff)
5. tOSU (Rose, B1G champ replacement)
6. Alabama
7. Tennessee
8. Penn State
9. Kansas State (Sugar, B12 champ replacement)
10. Washington (Rose, P12 champ replacement)
LSU (Sugar, SEC Champ)
ACC winner (Orange)
Group of 5 highest ranked
Penn State loses out. SEC! SEC!
All of this is to say that only 2 NY6 spots will come down to the rankings, and unless we end up ahead of USC after they lose or Penn State or Tennessee, it won't matter. I don't have any confidence we'll be treated that way, especially given how they have ranked P12 teams so far (USC behind LSU because of defense lol, us behind Kansas State, Oregon State way behind other shitty 3 loss teams). Otherwise, all that matters is USC wins and we are the highest ranked P12 team, which we will be. They're not taking 9-4 Utah over us.
Other ones:
All the Chaos (Purdue, LSU, Kansas State, Utah win)
1. Georgia (Peach, playoff)
2. Michigan (Fiesta, playoff)
3. TCU (Fiesta, playoff)
4. tOSU (Peach)
5. Alabama
6. Tennessee
7. Penn State
8. Kansas State (Sugar, B12 champ)
9. USC
10. Washington
Utah (Rose)
Purdue (Rose)
LSU (Sugar)
ACC winner (Orange)
Group of 5 highest ranked
Whoever ends up ranked 5 and 6 goes, all other non-champ top 10 teams do not. I don't really think the undefeated teams would drop in such a scenario.
One final one, which is my favorite, but seems incredibly unlikely:
USC wins, TCU loses, drops out of top 4 because committee is infatuated with Ohio State
1. Georgia (Peach, playoff)
2. Michigan (Fiesta, playoff)
3. USC (Fiesta, playoff)
4. tOSU (Peach, playoff)
5. TCU
6. Alabama (Sugar, SEC champ replacement)
7. Tennessee
8. Penn State (Rose, P12 champ replacement)
9. Kansas State (Sugar, B12 champ replacement, yes even at 9-4)
10. Washington (Rose, P12 champ replacement)
ACC winner (Orange)
Group of 5 highest ranked
We get the "reverse 2016" where USC makes the playoff and we get a cushy Rose Bowl matchup with Penn State. (I would love to find a way for USC to be ranked #4 in this and send them to Atlanta to play Georgia, but don't really see how tOSU would be ranked ahead of USC at this point)
TLDR go Trojans
