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Examining the Over/Under 2018 Win Totals for the Pac-12
DerekJohnson
Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 59,959
DerekJohnson
Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 59,959
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California: O/U is 5
Oregon: O/U is 5
Oregon State: O/U is 5
Stanford: O/U is 5
Washington: O/U is 5
Washington State: O/U is 5
Arizona: O/U is 5
Arizona State: O/U is 5
Colorado: O/U is 5
UCLA: O/U is 5
USC: O/U is 5
Utah: O/U is 5
As I’ve been saying all summer, looks like another down year for Oregon and USC enabling Washington to walk the league and get their heads kicked in again when it counts.
This year I’ll be watching a lot more of the Big 12 and SEC than this crap.
Oregon (Over 8.5): To get the cover they need to win just 1 of Stanford at home, UW at home, at Arizona, at Utah. They miss enough that they SHOULD be able to cover the number but will find a way to stumble to 9. IF Cristobal doesn't get to 9, then he probably should be fired immediately.
Oregon St (Under 2.5): Southern Utah is a win. At Nevada is probably closer to a coin flip. Where do they win a conference game? Home games are Arizona, Wazzu, Cal, USC, and Oregon. Best bet would be Wazzu or Cal. I wouldn't bet on either. It's going to be a long year for Babushka.
Stanford (Over 8): If they can split back to back road games against Oregon and Notre Dame, then they should get over 8 fairly easily. Getting SC early is the time to get them. Besides playing at UW, the back half of their schedule is at ASU, Wazzu, at UW, Oregon St, at Cal, at UCLA. That's got 5-1 written all over it.
Washington (Over 10.5): First, I expect UW to beat Auburn. If that happens, we aren't losing 2 games in conference. The road games will be tough but there SHOULD be a massive gap between UW and the rest of the P12. Lose the Auburn game and the Under is the call. Going 9-0 in the P12 is historically hard to do.
Wazzu (Under 6.5): They should feast on their non-conference games but a Week 1 date at Wyoming gives Leach an opportunity to lay an egg early as usual. Conference road games are at USC, at Oregon St, at Stanford, and at Colorado in November. The Colorado game is probably a swing game for them. Home games are against Utah, Oregon, Cal, Arizona, and UW. Cal/Arizona are the most likely wins there. I'm smelling more like a 4-8 or 5-7 season for the Cougs ... things could really go south there quickly.
Arizona (Over 8): Non-conference question mark of can they win at Houston. The South is largely dreck and they get USC at home early in the season (bonus points). At Utah on a short week is a likely loss. They miss both UW and Stanford ... the 2 best teams in the conference. They have to go to Wazzu in November ... but they have a bye week leading into it. Honestly couldn't draw up a road schedule in conference better than at Oregon St, at Wazzu, at UCLA, and at Utah. Would be shocked if they weren't 6-3 AT MINIMUM in the conference.
Arizona St (Under 4.5): Sparty and at San Diego St will be tough in the non-conference. Even UTSA isn't a pushover. It's hard to find 3 wins in conference for them. Beavs at home should be a win. Colorado is a favorite at home. Last 6 on the schedule are Stanford, at USC, Utah, UCLA, at Oregon, at Arizona. Good luck getting anything better than 1-5 in that stretch.
Colorado (Over 4.5): Non-conference includes the annual Colorado St game in Denver and at Nebraska. A split would be good. Home games in conference include UCLA, Arizona St, Oregon St, Wazzu, and Utah. 3-2 seems very reasonable there and 4-1 would not surprise me at all. Road games in the conference against USC, Washington, Arizona, and Cal presents probably 1 win at best. That being said, 3 conference wins is likely the over and 4 is a slam dunk. Would not shock me if they are 5-5 going into the Utah/Cal stretch chasing that bowl berth.
UCLA (Under 5): Non-Conference home against against Cincy and Fresno SHOULD produce 2 wins but that Fresno game will be tricky. Winning at Oklahoma isn't happening. Road games in conference are Colorado, Cal, Oregon, and ASU. A split of those 4 games wouldn't be a huge shocker. Their home schedule though ... UW, Arizona, Utah, USC, and Stanford ... just probably the 5 best teams in the conference. To get to the over, they probably need to win 2 of those home games. This is worth watching for UW heading into 2019 and 2020 recruiting as a 4-8 type season from UCLA (very possible) will help to continue to discredit them as a destination for SoCal kids.
USC (Under 8.5): I expect them to be much better at the end of the year then they were to start the year. Problem is that they'll be buried in the 1st month of the year similar to how they were 2 years ago with Darnold. Early back to back road games with Stanford and Texas will be quite impressive if they come out of there with a split. They come out of that with a short week game against Wazzu at home (which should be a get healthy game) but then they get Arizona right after that. Arizona's schedule sets up perfect for that game whereas SC will be coming off of a difficult stretch. Leaving September 2-3 is very possible. The back half of the schedule is much more doable with the exception of at Utah (always tough), a rivalry game at UCLA that Chip will likely be desperate to make sure that they win to salvage their season, and then who knows what Notre Dame will be looking like at the end of the year. 8-4 would be a great year for USC from a UW perspective.
Utah (Over 7): They have 2 cupcakes leading into the UW game. Road schedule at Wazzu, Stanford, UCLA, ASU, and Colorado largely provide some winnable games. Outside of UW, they get home games against Arizona, USC, and Oregon so how they handle the home schedule will be key to getting the over. I don't think I'd bet on them having less than 5 conference wins. Then they end the year with BYU at home. I'm generally viewing Utah as an 8-9 win team most years and when they have a doable road schedule, the upper end of that range feels much more likely.
It's one of those years that's going to come down to who keeps their QB healthy for the most games and get's some lucky bounces.
ASU went 7-5 in the regular season last year? They aren't bettering that this year....Colorado is bad. UCLA is going to be really bad early on.
Auburn power fucks UW, but the Huskies make in interesting once the second unit is in like the Fiesta Bowl last year but no one nationally notices because they turned it off before then. Doogs complain about lack of respect as Pete goes 0-career in statement games at UW but he is elite or something.
Oregon starts out 3-0 with a margin of victory that looks like 95 Nebraska. They beat a not good Stanford team and Cal and the media hypes a 5-0 Oregon vs 4-1 UW at Autzen. The Ducks aren't there yet, lose to UW. The media calls Oregon a paper tiger, which they are, and UW isn't a real contender, which they aren't. They drop in the polls with a win, Doogs unite.
The entire conference spins into a dog-eat-dog shit show that is super entertaining but plays into the hands of the national pundits that the conference is terrible, which it is.
Another 1-8ish type bowl season happens again. Larry Scott is canned, we switch back to an 8 team conference schedule.