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We "are getting killed on the trail" - UO vs UW commitment analysis
dnc
Member Posts: 56,614
Let's dig a little deeper into this disturbing claim shall we?
Oregon has 11 incoming frosh commitments and UW has 9. Oregon has 7 incoming frosh (63.7%) who are currently rated 4 stars (via 247, which we will use throughout this analysis). UW has only 5 (55.6%). Each has a JUCO OL and Oregon's appears by all indications to be better, so advantage Oregon on that. But this analysis will look at kids who will have full eligibility upon arriving on campus (assuming everyone qualifies of course).
Oregon's 4 stars, position (national rank)
Mase Funa, OLB (I'm guessing he's an inside LB but whatever) (47)
Jeremiah Criddell, CB (76)
Mykael Wright, CB (95)
Sean Dollars, RB (120)
Josh Delgado, WR (191)
Jayvaun Wilson, ATH (301)
Patrick Herbert, WTE (313)
Washington's 4 stars, position (national rank)
Dylan Morris, QB (154)
Kamren Fabiculanan, CB (243)
Cameron Davis, RB (254)
Nathaniel Fuck BallzDeep Kalepo, OT (308)
Sama Paama, DT (329)
Off the top you notice Oregon has 4 kids rated higher than UW's top kid, and a fifth higher than UW's second. Advantage Oregon.
Let's go position by position:
QB: Cale Millen (3 *, 521) vs Dylan Morris (4*, 154)
No way to spin this as anything but a major UW victory unless you're a serious Quook.
Advantage: UW (large)
RB: Sean Dollars (4*, 120) vs Cameron Davis (4*, 254)
UW offered both Oregon only offered Dollars. UW clearly prioritized Davis. Oregon obviously prioritized Dollars. Based on rankings it's a win for Oregon but Dollars better be much faster than he timed at the Opening or this is a massive UW win. If we add Jayvaun Wilson (4*, 301) who might play on the other side of the ball it's a big win for Oregon. Unless a Duck fan talks me out of it I'm putting Wilson here since he seems more likely to play RB to me.
Advantage: Oregon
WR: Josh Delgado (4*, 191) and JR Waters (3*, 1034) vs Taj Davis (3*, 408)
UW kept pushing Delgado off and took Davis' commitment as soon as he was ready. Looks like both schools got the kid they wanted. UW DWJRWA.
Advantage: UW (Waters is a big anchor here)
TE: Patrick Herbert, (4*, 313) vs nobody
Once Herbert gets his reads down this thing will get ugly quick.
Advantage: Oregon (I doubt any UW fan really thinks we're getting one of the superior TE's we are currently in on)
OL: Nobody vs Nathaniel Kalepo (4*, 308)
Oregon clearly wanted Kalepo, offering him before UW did and pushing hard for his commit which they nearly got. But they didn't.
Advantage: UW
(Again, JUCO OL Oregon has the edge)
Offense - UW wins QB and OL, Oregon wins RB and TE, and gets the rankings win at WR.
DL: Keyon Ware Hudson (3* 550 [Composite 4 star]), Suaava Poti (3* 427) and Isaac Townsend (3* 377) vs Sama Paama (4*, 329) and Noa Ngalu (3*, 472)
UW offered Hudson. Oregon offered Paama. If I were confident in Paama's commit this would be a win for UW, but since it's a little shaky we'll call it a draw.
Advantage: Push
LB: Mase Funa (4*, 47) vs Alphonzo Tuputala (3*, 853) Miki Ah You (3*, 861)
Funa doesn't list a UW offer but considering he does list offers from USC, Oklahoma, ND, Texas and Florida State I'm going to assume we either didn't think we haswtg, or he just didn't bother listing our? offer. Either way, kid's a stud. Ah You lists an Oregon offer, Tuputala does not. UW is in on some big time LBs and may be able to close ground, but right now this is a big Oregon win.
Advantage: Oregon (large)
DB: Jeremiah Criddell (4*, 76), Mykael Wright (4*, 95) and Marques Caldwell (3* 694) vs Kamren Fabiculanan (4*, 243)
Criddell is rated higher but I think Wright is the bigger catch here, he tests very well whereas Criddell does not. I'd take either of them. Caldwell doesn't seem that impressive but UT is trying to make a run to keep him home so who knows? Fabiculanaananana is the next Jimmy Lake special. Oregon gets the big edge here but does anyone really think their DB class is going to look better in 2023? Not as long as the GOAT is on the UW sidelines.
Advantage: Oregon
After digging into it, Oregon's class is stronger than I expected but not where I expected. With Cristalballz I thought they'd be real strong up front but their frosh OL class is non existent and their DL class isn't special at this point despite allocating three schollies to it. It looks like another year of good to great skill players at everything but QB, but another year of falling behind UW at incoming QB talent can't be exciting for Quook nation. I like UW's chances of finding an underrated WTE to be just as good as Herbert redux if not better.
Will be interesting to see if UW can keep Paama and Oregon can keep Caldwell.
Obviously it's June 27 so LIFPO, just thought a position by position comparison would be chinteresting as we hit the dead period.
Assuming Crystoballz sticks around I would guess UO stays ahead of UW in the recruiting rankings this year but I don't think they'll continue to lead by 20 spots or so. And I definitely don't think Lake and Co are getting killed on the trail. Both schools seem to be getting their kind of kids. I like it.
Comments
2 - its fucking June
2. "Obviously it's June 27 so LIFPO"
hth
Ridiculous analysis
Oregon would want. As always it comes down to how the class closes out.
Keyon Ware Hudson is a 4* and ranked nationally at 305 not 505
Ngalu is 646 not 472
Waters is ranked at 765 not 1034
Point of showing this is the ridiculousness of drawing any sort of conclusions....
Try again.
https://247sports.com/college/washington/Season/2019-Football/Commits/